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Bucks vs Celtics Prediction, Pick, NBA Odds for Wednesday, November 4
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- Bucks vs Celtics Prediction, Pick, NBA Odds for Wednesday, November 4
David Butler II-Imagn Images. Pictured: Celtics forward Paul George
The Milwaukee Bucks (1-6) and Boston Celtics (5-2) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Celtics are 11.5-point favorites on the spread (Celtics -11.5), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. The Celtics are -567 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Bucks are listed as +424 underdogs to pull off the upset.
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Let's get into my Bucks vs. Celtics predictionsand NBA picks for Wednesday, November 4.
Bucks vs Celtics Prediction
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Bucks vs Celtics pick: Paul George Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-154)
My Bucks vs. Celtics best bet is on Paul George to make over 2.5 three-pointers, with the best price currently available at DraftKings . Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Bucks vs Celtics Odds
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Bucks vs Celtics spread:Bucks +11.5 (-108), Celtics -11.5 (-112)
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Bucks vs Celtics over/under:224.5 (-110o / -110u)
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Bucks vs Celtics moneyline:Bucks +424, Celtics -567
Bucks vs Celtics NBA Preview
The Bucks have been horrendous to start the season, and if you dive into the underlying metrics, their defensive scheme is getting completely torched on the perimeter.
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I immediately looked to fade their defense because they give up a high rate of three-pointers. Milwaukee currently sits in the top five for opponent 3-pointers allowed per game, and more specifically, they rank in the top three in opponent corner three-pointers allowed.
When you systematically bleed high-value looks from the corners at that volume, you invite exploitation by teams that understand the math.
The Bucks simply cannot cover the entire floor, and their perimeter rotations are fundamentally broken right now.
The Celtics are exactly the type of volume three-point shooting team that will ruthlessly punish Milwaukee's defensive flaws.
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Boston's offense is literally built to generate exactly the kind of shots the Bucks give up.
Jayson Tatum is currently listed as questionable for rest in this matchup—which is always hilarious to me when teams get an extra day off and then decide they might want another one.
However, if Tatum sits, I am completely fine with it for our specific angle because it only increases the rate of Paul George taking pull-up threes off the pick-and-roll.
George isn't suddenly going to become the primary on-ball isolation guy if Tatum is out; Boston will just run Payton Pritchard and Derrick White downhill to collapse the defense and kick out to George for high-value spot-up opportunities.
Bucks vs Celtics Pick, Betting Analysis
I rarely play props , but this is my favorite play on the board for tonight's slate. I am looking at Paul George to go over 2.5 three-pointers made.
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You have an elite volume three-point shooting team facing a defense that surrenders a high rate of outside shots.
You'll find 3.5 at a pretty tasty plus-money number in the market, but I am trying to be more disciplined with my prop betting this season.
I don't want to mess around with escalators for four, or five threes, even though George could absolutely get rolling and hit that ceiling.
I just want to pay the juice on the base number of 2.5, which is closer to his season average, and secure the win. The volume should be there against this drop coverage scheme.
Pick: Paul George Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-154, DraftKings )
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