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The Buffalo Bulls take on the Miami (OH) RedHawks in Oxford, Ohio, on Tuesday, November 3. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Miami (OH) is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. Buffalo, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +195 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here's my Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) predictionand college football pick for Tuesday, November 3.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Pick: Buffalo Team Total Over 18.5 (Play to 20.5)
My Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo best bet is on the Bulls to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) Spread: Miami (OH) -6.5, Buffalo +6.5
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) Moneyline: Buffalo ML +210, Miami (OH) ML -260
Buffalo should have been written off. After five games, it was 2-3 with two one-score wins over mid-level FCS teams and losses to FIU , Penn State and Western Michigan .
The offense wasn't clicking and, to make matters worse, starting quarterback Elijah Holmes suffered a season-ending knee injury.
But since that announcement, Buffalo has won three straight MAC games behind a terrific defense, including a 23-8 win at Toledo as a +18.5 underdog. Then, the Bulls nudged out a 25-18 overtime win over UMass and a 31-24 win over Bowling Green .
Despite some projections pegging them as a bottom-three FBS team, they sit 5-3.
However, Buffalo needs two more wins to clinch a bowl spot since two of its current wins come over FCS teams.
Brian Dougherty's defense subscribes to the dreadful bend-don't-break theory. Buffalo ranks 91st in Success Rate allowed but 67th in Points Per Drive allowed.
In the MAC, forcing teams to execute in the red zone isn't such a bad strategy, especially against offenses like Bowling Green (116th in Points Per Drive) and Akron (133rd).
The team has also executed well in one-score games. Under head coach Pete Lembo, Buffalo has gone 9-6 in one-score games, including 4-1 this season.
Its defense, in particular, has played above expectations in those tight games, ranking 47th in the country in Success Rate during one-score games.
The issue has been an inconsistent and absent offense. Buffalo ranks 136th in Success Rate, 122nd in touchdown rate and 115th in Points Per Drive.
Messiah Burch has emerged as a breakout star, running for a MAC-best 841 yards despite only rushing for only 98 yards through his first three games. Since Week 4, Burch is averaging a lucrative 149 yards per game (and 175-plus in back-to-back games).
Three of Buffalo's final four games come on the road. It'll be favored in three of them, likely (at Ball State , vs. Central Michigan , at Akron), meaning this UB team will almost certainly play in the postseason.
Talk about operating by the skin of its teeth. In its last seven games, Miami and its opponents finished within four points of each other six times. That includes two one-point wins over UMass and Central Michigan leading into midweek MACtion.
Credit has to be given to head coach Chuck Martin. His old-school coaching is loathsome to many — he's still one of the most conservative coaches on fourth downs — but Miami tends to overcome adversity to win football games.
Last year, he lost supposed star quarterback Dequan Finn to NFL pipe dreams in the middle of the season and still made the MAC Championship. This year, Martin is down to QB3 and totes a 5-3 record.
Quarterback Caleb Heavner has been more liability than beneficial, and transfer running back Rodney Nelson hasn't been spectacular. But Martin's RedHawks have done just enough to seek out close games (Bowling Green game aside).
Miami frustrates opposing offenses by putting a firm cap on their ability to generate explosive plays. Only seven defenses have allowed fewer plays of 30-plus yards this season, and among those teams are defenses like Ohio State , Notre Dame and Georgia .
Martin has survived in Oxford for 13 seasons now, accruing a ridiculous 60-38-1 (.612) ATS record against MAC teams. The formula is simple — bet Miami against MAC foes, and the money makes itself.
An opening total set at 44.5 was a popular early-week bet, moving up as high as 46.5. But by Saturday, this line was bet back down to 44.5, where it has largely laid for the rest of its life. The line of Miami -6.5 has not budged an inch.
Buffalo's offense has found a new formula: give the ball to Burch as many times as possible and reap the benefits.
Since offensive coordinator Tony Tokarz fed Burch the ball 26 times against Robert Morris (146 yards), he's averaged 25.4 carries per game (7.7 in the first three games).
He reached a new season high with 33 carries for 184 yards and a trio of touchdowns against Bowling Green last week.
That has opened the Bulls' offense up. UB has scored 23-plus in each of its last three games after being held to 20 or fewer in its previous three against FBS foes.
Miami's defense has been fine this year but not excellent in any one single category. Buffalo doesn't completely rely on explosive plays, instead benefiting from running behind a pretty good offensive line.
This run game doesn't go backwards very often, and it runs the clock efficiently.
With a bowl game in sight — and a bowl still meaning something to this program — expect Buffalo to continue to lean on its workhorse back.
It'll be a war of attrition between a good Buffalo offensive front and a solid Miami front six. But this is likely the best offensive line Miami has faced this year (excluding Pitt and Cincinnati), and Buffalo should find some success on the ground.
Welcome back, MACtion. We're backing a Bulls team that's better than you think.
