After the dust settles, Cardinals QB1 Kyler Murray is likely to venture to a team like the New York Jets . He's super talented but flawed, in large part due to injury alongside some bizarre past concerns about preparation (or lack thereof).
Going toe-to-toe with the Jets in a battle of cap space and coveted picks means Minnesota will lose. So, a trade bidding war won't end in the Vikings securing the Arizona passer.
Nevertheless, there's still the possibility of the Minnesota Vikings . After all, these two teams have been somewhat linked in recent history, most notably in the 2018 free agency competition for Kirk Cousins . Furthermore, there has been the Sam Darnold situation since he was a Jet before becoming a Viking ( and then doing something special as a Seahawk ). After leaving New York, Aaron Rodgers wanted to move to the Twin Cities. Is Murray just another link in the chain of connected QBs?
The simple declaration that Murray is going to find a new employer in 2026 isn't breaking news. There is, nevertheless, some fascination relating to how that (seemingly inevitable) eventuality materializes.
Over on the NFL's website, there has been further confirmation . Author Bobby Kownack relays the update courtesy of league insiders Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero, and Mike Garafolo: "A new head coach is likely to usher in a new era at quarterback for the Cardinals […] Such a decision seemed like more and more of a possibility as Murray's 2025 season with the Cards progressed. The two-time Pro Bowler made just five starts."
Nov 27, 2022; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) scores a touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Consider, as well, at least some general background on Murray's career.
The NFL piece: "Murray, the 2019 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick, was never able to sustain success even before his most recent lost season, having gone 38-48-1 in his career with only one campaign above .500 and a lopsided loss in his lone playoff appearance."
Switching from former Head Coach Jonathan Gannon to new hire Mike LaFleur appears to be the final straw on the camel's back.
Consider the cap implications of a swap: "Murray has a cap number of $52.7 million in 2026. He's guaranteed $36.8 million regardless of what happens, but if he's on the team's roster past the first week of the new league year, which begins March 11, he is guaranteed an extra $20 million going into next season, per Rapoport."
"Thus, the Cardinals have a pretty obvious deadline to make a final decision," Kownack clarifies.
Oct 30, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) scrambles against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.
In the NFL, there's seldom a situation where teams employ bad players . Rather, NFL teams employ players who are operating on bad contracts and/or who are forced into bad roles . Oh, and then there's bad context , such as trying to be the starting passer for the Cardinals.
Working in Murray's favor is that he's a talented quarterback who has a pile of experience. The former No. 1 pick is a playmaker who is accurate and who throws lasers. Playing in Minnesota would easily be his best support structure, possibly allowing him to reach new heights.
Working against Murray are the injuries alongside the concerns about preparation. Plus, there's the questionable scheme fit.
The Vikings want to be lethal off of play action, usually demanding a QB who is under center, but Murray often plays out of shotgun. The only season where he played every game over the past five years was in 2024. In that season, Murray was under center for 121 passes. He was working out of shotgun for 420 passes. The overall tally of play-action passes came in at 127 versus 414 for passes not using play action.
Looking at the full season splits for Kirk Cousins from 2022 and Sam Darnold from 2024 means seeing that the situation could work — the difference isn't staggering — but it's nevertheless a factor. In the future, Minnesota should be working toward more play action.
Nov 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) celebrates with fans after scoring a touchdown in the first half against the Atlanta Falcons at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Kyler Murray is working on a deal that totals $230.5 million . However, any acquiring team would only be accepting three more seasons that run from 2026 through to 2028. Crucially, there would be smaller cap charges for any team that pulls off a trade since some of the cap charges wouldn't leave Arizona.
The veteran passer is a good starter. What remains to be seen if he can become a very good or elite passer, a QB1 who pushes his team not just into the playoffs but who thrives once there. So far, Murray has been in the playoffs just a single time, a contest where he lost after completing 55.9% of his passes for 137 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
The Vikings trading for Murray would mean demoting J.J. McCarthy even if there would be (largely meaningless) words about a true competition.
