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The Cal Poly Mustangs take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Ariz. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on truTV.
Arizona is favored by -30.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -20000. The total is set at 172.5 points.
Here's my Cal Poly vs. Arizona predictionand college basketball picks for November 6, 2026.
Pick: Over 172.5
My Cal Poly vs Arizona best betis on the over. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
Cal Poly vs Arizona spread:Cal Poly +30.5 (-105), Arizona -30.5 (-115)
Cal Poly vs Arizona over/under:172.5 (-108o / -112u)
Cal Poly vs Arizona moneyline:Cal Poly +4000, Arizona -20000
Mike DeGeorge has a knack for upsetting high-majors teams. Two years ago, the Mustangs beat Arizona State , and last year they beat Stanford .
Can the 'Stangs steal one in Tucson? Unlikely, but Cal Poly is a fun team.
It began the season with a tune-up win against Cal State San Marcos — a non-D-1 program — meaning this will be the first real action for Cal Poly.
Every member of Cal Poly's starting five was on the roster last year, and three started: Hamad Mousa led the team with 18 ppg, Cayden Ward had 14.5 ppg, and sharpshooter Guzman Vasilic poured in 7.6 and shot 37% from 3.
It doesn't matter who Cal Poly plays; it won't deter them from push ing the pace. It led the country in adjusted tempo last year and took 3s on 52% of its field-goal attempts.
That's why DeGeorge arms his roster with four guards 6-3+ since all of them can rebound and push the pace and shoot, and a versatile five-man like Jess Esso Essis.
I view Esso Essis as the key in this one. He offers a versatile skill set at 6-11, and Cal Poly needs him on the court, but Arizona will try to get him in foul trouble.
However, doing business at a rampant pace comes at the cost of turnover. Cal Poly turned it over 25 times against Cal State San Marcos. Arizona will bury Cal Poly in transition if the Mustangs' turnover woes carry into this one.
Arizona had a tough showing to open the year, losing outright as 5.5-point favorites against UCLA on a neutral court. Expectations have grown so high under Tommy Lloyd that even the slightest slip-up causes panic.
There's reason for worry but plenty more for optimism.
The concerns? Arizona went from the steady Jaden Bradley to question marks at point guard. JJ Mandaquit tallied six assists and zero turnovers in 32 minutes but scored just three points. The other two guards, five-star freshman Caleb Holt and Derek Dixon, scored 7 points on 2-7 shooting and 18 points on 5-17 shooting, respectively.
It was just one game, but Lloyd usually plays elite guard. That trio has to improve as time rolls on.
The Wildcats frontcourt is one of the best in the country. Sophomore forward Ivan Kharchenkov kicked off his breakout sophomore campaign with 38 points and 10 rebounds.
The one who's supposed to be Arizona's best player, Motiejus Krivas, a 7-2 defensive enforcer and reliable scorer, struggled against UCLA.
I wouldn't count on Krivas's struggles to last. He should destroy this matchup.
Arizona is a massive 30.5-point favorite, which mirrors the range of most 1 v 16 matchups in the NCAA Tournament.
Neither side catches my eye since Arizona can beat any mid-major by 40+, and Cal Poly can get hot from 3 and keep it close.
I want Over 172.5. Arizona probably cracks 100+ here, thanks to its pace and size advantage over Cal Poly.
If the Wildcats can turn Cal Poly over, that's even better. The Mustangs need to take their run-out chances to shoot 3s; that's their path to scoring 70+.
Give me the over.
Pick: Over 172.5
