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What Do The Capitals' Long-Term Sourdif And Leonard Extensions Mean For Their Future?
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- What Do The Capitals' Long-Term Sourdif And Leonard Extensions Mean For Their Future?
In the hours before the last collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA expired, the Washington Capitals got in under the wire with two eight-year deals for very different players.
One went to Ryan Leonard , the 21-year-old winger drafted eighth overall in 2023, who just completed his rookie year in the NHL with 20 goals and 45 points. He has long figured to be a key fixture in the Capitals offense, and his first full season in the league did little to dissuade anyone.
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As such, the Capitals were more than happy — at a time when 30-goal guys cost well in excess of $14 million against the cap — to lock Leonard in for eight years on a deal beginning in 2027-28 for a $10.5-million AAV.
And Leonard was more than happy to leave what's probably going to end up being a lot of money on the table for the simple reason that Washington is giving him more than 82 percent of his money in the form of signing bonuses.
The other eight-year deal went to Justin Sourdif , a 24-year-old center who until this past season had just four total games in the NHL, but had been an AHL mainstay in the Florida Panthers organization.
It's not hard to see why a 2020 third-round pick who never cleared more than 38 points in an AHL season couldn't crack the Panthers lineup, but Sourdif was handed some of the toughest minutes in the league last season and excelled.
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In addition to a respectable 15 goals and 35 points in 78 games, nearly all of his most common opponents were the best forwards the other team could throw at him.
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He also started less than 40 percent of his shifts in the attacking zone, and yet when he was on the ice, Washington outscored opponents 47-28 at 5-on-5, with a 52.3 percent expected-goals share. GM Chris Patrick rewarded him with eight years at a $6.35-million AAV after just one year in the league.
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There was some criticism of this type of deal — the Capitals certainly weren't the only team to back a dumptruck full of money onto the lawn of a guy who hasn't even played 100 NHL games yet — and there is certainly some risk involved, just as there is with almost any contract.
Players might not produce how their teams think they will, or they might ask for a trade after just a few seasons.
But the bet in Washington is that Leonard will continue to grow his game as a goal-scoring threat — he finished first and third in the NCAA in goals in his only two seasons of college hockey — and eventually take Alex Ovechkin 's place as the trigger man on the power play.
Sourdif is obviously different, as they're clearly counting on his game being projectable. He was severely underpaid last season and will be again this year, but then he might be overpaid for a year or two before everything evens out with the explosive growth of the salary cap.
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Basically, the combined $16.85 million they're going to be paid each season from 2027-35 already looks like it will be easy for them to deliver on, regardless of whether their games improve, specifically because of how much the financial structure of the league is evolving.
The reality is that a $150-million salary cap is probably coming within the next five years, let alone eight, and so for the Capitals to lock up two guys in their early or mid-20s until they're in their early 30s, at this price, is just good business.
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No one raised an eyebrow when 30-year-old Alex Tuch got an eight-year deal of his own at $10.5 million against the cap, and if Leonard is able to be a consistent 30-goal guy then an AAV like this in a cap environment like we're expecting is going to be a steal. Especially considering they've got him under contract for the entirety of his prime years.
Sourdif might not be able to continue delivering elite defensive impacts while also contributing 15-plus goals forever; he shot 14 percent last season and that feels high for a guy with his skillset. But elite defensive impacts are going to cost $6-million range very soon, and the Capitals are just getting out in front of it.
The only concern here is that Washington has a lot of highly-paid players who are on the older side and even at their peaks weren't exactly the top players in the world (Ovechkin excepted, obviously).
Their window to compete, such as it is, is open right now, and there may be some bumpier roads ahead. But if you're building a young core around guys like Leonard, Sourdif, Aliaksei and Ilya Protas, Ivan Miroscnichenko and Cole Hutson , then you're probably going to be fine at the very least.
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And if it doesn't work? Neither one has much trade protection. Even if it all goes belly-up, these contracts are going to be very tradeable. As a team, you have to plan for these contingencies, and the Capitals gave themselves plenty of wiggle room.
Overall, this is just good business , and any outside concerns people may have is just because they haven't adjusted to the new financial realities of the NHL.
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