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Cardinals' McGreevy Must Find More Velocity, Stamina to Improve in '27
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- Cardinals' McGreevy Must Find More Velocity, Stamina to Improve in '27
Growth, as St. Louis Cardinals' manager Oliver Marmol pointed out repeatedly over the final month of the 2026 season, can be measured in a variety of ways.
One way, of course, is the standings – an area where the Cardinals fell back a win from 2025 (78-84) to 2026 (77-85), one that was somewhat expected with the widespread youth on the roster and the club selling off veteran pitchers JoJo Romero and Dustin May for prospects at the MLB Trade Deadline.
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Instead, the Cardinals tried to evaluate areas of growth in non-traditional ways in a non-traditional season in St. Louis.
Growth was having a defined core group of players – Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Riley O'Brien – take major steps in their games and evolve into building blocks.
Growth was seeing Leo Bernal, Joshua Baez, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe and Nathan Church live up to the hype that followed them from the Minor Leagues and show signs they can be depended on going forward.
Growth was Andre Pallante and Gordon Graceffo shaking off the struggles of 2025 and showing the fortitude to change the trajectory of their careers.
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"This is a really young group, but there's been a lot of progress with so many of these guys," Marmol said. "You can go up and down the lineup and you see growth from so many of our guys. Then, go to the rotation and what McGreevy, Pallante and Leahy did this season, and the bullpen as well. Our staff has really enjoyed pouring into that group. They are hungry for information and they want to be coaches, so that's made it a lot of fun."
However, as president of baseball operation Chaim Bloom reminds, the Cardinals still have major gulfs between them and MLB's top teams. The National League champion Brewers, after all, finished 26 games ahead of St. Louis and battered the Cards in 11 of 13 head-to-head meetings. Much more growth is needed for the Cards to better navigate the difference the rebuilding and contending.
With growth being the focus, let's look back at the performances by individual players in the 2026 season and how they will figure into the Cards' plans going forward in 2027 and beyond:
Player name:Michael McGreevy
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2026 statistics:31 games/31 starts, 7-9. 3.95 ERA, 168 2/3 IP, 21 HR allowed, 115 strikeouts, 48 walks, .260 batting average allowed
Key numbers:McGreevy led all Cardinals' starters in Quality Starts with 16, well ahead of the 10 posted by Andre Pallante. He had tremendous success with his changeup (.192 batting average against, three homers allowed), but the lack of velocity on his four-seam fastball led to troubles (.297 batting average against, six homers allowed).
Looking back to 2026:Analytical models don't paint a rosy picture of McGreevy's season, with his Expected ERA (5.37) and Expected Batting Average Against (.283) far exceeding his actual ERA (3.95) and his actual batting average against (.260). Also, computer models call him one of MLB's "luckiest" pitchers in terms of the homers he allowed (21) and the number of homers projected (27). McGreevy was able to defy expectations most of the season with his exquisite control (78th percentile in MLB in walks) and his ability to change speeds and locations. He struggled mightily with his velocity early in the season following an ankle injury, but he still posted solid ERAs in April (3.62), May (3.00) and June (3.41). He did hit a wall physically over during St. Louis' steamy months and struggles ensued. His ERAs in July (5.06), August (5.13) and September (4.44). McGreevy also helped his cause by fielding his position well (Gold Glove finalist) and in holding runners well (only three stolen bases allowed).
Looking forward to 2027:McGreevy had great success as a spot starter in 2024 (3-0, 1.56 ERA) and 2025 (8-4, 4.42), but he did struggle for an extended period following a solid start. He must work throughout the offseason to find ways to build his velocity and to be stronger in St. Louis' unforgiving summer months. He figures to be a steady and defendable No. 2 or No. 3 starter for the Cards with his ability to study swings and navigate his way through games. No pitcher is more prepared coming into games – another factor in McGreevy's success despite having stuff that rarely overwhelms.
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Denton's analysis:While McGreevy will never blow hitters away with his stuff, he is still able to thrive at the MLB level because of his maturity, smarts and guile on the mound. Whereas his average fastball velocity sits at just 91.5 mph (11th percentile), he induces plenty of chase (28th percentile), gets ground balls (62nd percentile) and doesn't hurt himself with walks (78th percentile). He must build strength and stamina to promote more velocity and the ability to pitch deeper into games. McGreevy is at his best when he his getting hitters to chase his devastating changeup, but he needs to be ahead in counts for that pitch to be most effective. In terms of his mentality, McGreevy has the makeup to be a leader on the pitching staff and a leader in the clubhouse. His maturity is well beyond his 26 years, and the Cardinals hope he can be a fixture of their pitching staff for years to come.
