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CFP bracket hot takes, from upset pick to committee flub to champion prediction
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- CFP bracket hot takes, from upset pick to committee flub to champion prediction
The College Football Playoff bracket is finalized, but the grievances will continue until the games begin . OK, let's be real, they'll continue after the games begin.
The 12-team bracket means more drama than the four-team format, but also more criticisms of the CFP committee.
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Some of those are worthy criticisms. We might need to rethink the bracket format. Something seems off when unranked Duke had a better chance of selection than No. 14 Vanderbilt.
Here are seven College Football Playoff bracket hot takes burning on my brain:
1. Playoff selections weren't the problem. Process is.
Notre Dame didn't possess a superior resume than Alabama or Miami. Let's get that out of the way.
The Irish had some factors in their favor, but not enough to definitively outweigh the arguments of Alabama or Miami. I push back on anyone saying the Irish got "snubbed." That implies they were clearly a better choice than Alabama or Miami. They weren't.
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The issue is not the selection of Alabama and Miami, but rather the path to reaching that decision, the optics of which look bizarre at best and downright fishy at worst.
The committee told you for weeks it favored Notre Dame over Miami. Many of us disputed that logic, because Miami beat the Irish in Week 1. But, the committee maintained every week that Notre Dame was the better team.
Now, suddenly, it values Miami more, because Brigham Young lost to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. Seriously, that's the reasoning offered by CFP committee chairman Hunter Yurachek.
BYU lost to Texas Tech for a second time, the Cougars dropped in the rankings, and somehow that compelled the committee to validate a head-to-head Miami-Irish result it had rebuffed for weeks.
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Makes sense, right? Not really.
The committee also decided Alabama's pathetic performance in a 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game didn't matter at all. The Crimson Tide didn't budge an inch in the seeding, making it the only ranked team to lose a conference championship and not drop in the rankings.
I respect the choice of Alabama and Miami for the final at-large spot. I have no respect for how the committee arrived at this selection.
2. Automatic bids weaken bracket, need rethinking
Duke won the ACC despite playing fewer than half the teams in its conference. Think about that. The Blue Devils won the 17-team ACC while facing just eight conference peers.
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That's an insufficient sample size to declare a team eligible for an automatic bid.
Automatic bids were a worthy idea when conferences were smaller, but now that conferences are so big, a team can win its conference crown while playing only about half the membership.
Conferences can keep their championship games. That's up to them. But, CFP stakeholders need to seriously reconsider whether auto bids are a bug, and not a feature, for the playoff.
The committee didn't admit Duke, but the Blue Devils' ACC title nonetheless became a wrench in the works, because CFP rules dictate five conference champions must earn automatic bids.
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That paved the way for the selection of two Group of Five teams with auto bids. The inclusion of Tulane and James Madison cheapen this bracket. Nobody can say with a straight face either of those teams are among the nation's 12-best teams.
I don't want to dump on the little guy, and I'm not trying to rob the Blue Devils of their conference crown, but when five-loss Duke and James Madison have a better chance of earning playoff selection than 10-2 Vanderbilt, something's broken.
Keep the bracket's size at 12 teams. But, rethink how bids are allocated.
3. Altering CFP bye rules proved a worthy change
If CFP stakeholders had not changed the bye rules this past offseason, then Tulane would've gotten a bye. The same Tulane team that lost to Mississippi by 35 points.
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The rules for the 12-team bracket in place last season dictated only conference champions could receive a bye. Those rules were tweaked after in the offseason so that the top four teams got byes, no matter whether they won a conference title.
At the time, I questioned whether that was a knee-jerk change. I was wrong. It was a worthy change.
The rules alteration allowed Ohio State to nab the No. 2 seed, instead of the No. 5 seed, and Tulane is No. 11 instead of No. 4, which would've been its seed under last year's rules.
Yes, indeed, a good adjustment.
4. Indiana earns a great draw
Oregon's No. 1 seed last season became a booby trap, paired with the committee seeding Ohio State No. 8. The Ducks' prize for going undefeated in the regular season became a rematch with the nation's most talented team in the quarterfinals. Didn't go well for Oregon, you'll recall.
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In this second iteration of the 12-team bracket, No. 1 Indiana drew a much better fate than Oregon did. There's no behemoth on the No. 8 seed line akin to 2024 Ohio State. Just Oklahoma.
The Sooners have a supreme defense that could slow down Indiana star Fernando Mendoza, if Oklahoma handles No. 9 Alabama in the first round. But, the Sooners have offensive limitations. So does Alabama.
Indiana is equipped to win a slugfest. It proved that in its Big Ten title game win over Ohio State. If the Hoosiers can get their offense rolling a bit against a good defense in the quarterfinals, their opponent won't be equipped to keep up.
5. Texas Tech a beast below the radar
After the SEC championship game, I mentioned to a fellow scribe I thought one of four teams would win the national championship.
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"Who's the fourth?" he responded.
Texas Tech.
Who are the other three?
Indiana. Ohio State. Georgia.
No one sane would dispute the first three. I'm not sure how anyone who watched Texas Tech twice crush Brigham Young could argue with the fourth.
The Red Raiders ' defense is pure ferocity. Remove the conference logo patch, and you might think this is a Kirby Smart defense.
Texas Tech's only loss came without starting quarterback Behren Morton , who missed the Arizona State game with an injury.
Indiana's bracket draw is undeniably better than the bitter pill Oregon got handed last year, but the Hoosiers will be on upset alert if they face Big Oil U. in the semifinals.
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6. Upset special: No. 10 Miami beats No. 7 Texas A&M
Miami enters the playoff on a heater, after blowouts of Syracuse, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. The Aggies wobbled in, needing a furious comeback to survive South Carolina, then losing to Texas.
If an official would've flagged Texas A&M for holding on Sept. 13 in South Bend, the Aggies wouldn't be in this bracket.
No flag emerged, and so no argument with Texas A&M's bid, but it's vulnerable to an upset if good Carson Beck makes the journey to Kyle Field and bad Carson Beck stays home.
7. National champion prediction: Ohio State
The Buckeyes ' path to winning a national championship did not substantially stiffen by their movement from the No. 1 to the No. 2 seed line.
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Hoosiers fans will cherish their Big Ten championship long after the days when a Curt Cignetti statue is erected, and a national championship is absolutely in play for Indiana, but neither of Ohio State's last two national titles included an undefeated record.
The Buckeyes can get off the mat this time, too.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP bracket predictions include Ohio State, Miami making run
