Chargers vs. Cowboys prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 16

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Chargers vs. Cowboys prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 16

Enzo Flojo, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Dec 18, 2025 ·

4 min read

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The Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) visit the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) in a critical Week 16 matchup at AT&T Stadium. The Chargers are looking to maintain their strong form as they jockey for playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Cowboys face a must-win situation to keep their extremely slim postseason hopes alive. With both teams boasting explosive skill talent and contrasting defensive profiles, the matchup sets up as one of the weekend's most compelling games. Oddsmakers expect points, too, hanging a total just under 50. That's an acknowledgment that this could turn into a back-and-forth affair decided late.

Chargers vs. Cowboys betting odds

Chargers: +1.5, -105
Cowboys: -1.5, -115
Over: 49.5, -112
Under: 49.5, -108

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings )

Chargers vs. Cowboys key injuries for Week 16

Chargers: S RJ Mickens (Shoulder), WR Tre' Harris (Hip), LB Bud Dupree (Back), DL Teair Tart (Shin), WR Quentin Johnston (Groin)

Cowboys : OL Tyler Guyton (Ankle), CB DaRon Bland (Foot), DL Quinnen Williams (Concussion), S Donovan Wilson (Knee)

Chargers vs. Cowboys betting trends

The Chargers and Cowboys have played each other just four times from 2010 onwards. They have split the head-to-head matchup, 2-2, over those games. The Chargers, though, have averaged +6.2 more points per game than Dallas in those matchups. On the flip side, the Cowboys have won their last two meetings. They beat Los Angeles , 20-17, in Week 6 back in 2023 and also in Week 2 of the 2021 season by the exact same score. Entering Week 16, these teams are on opposite trajectories. The Chargers have won their last three assignments, while the Cowboys are reeling from back-to-back losses.

Several betting trends do favor Los Angeles despite last week's setback:

Each of the Chargers' last six road games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Chargers have won eight of their last nine games against opponents on a losing streak.
The road team has won the first half in nine of the last 10 games between the Chargers and Cowboys.
The Chargers have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

2025 records:

Los Angeles, 10-4 straight up, 8-6 ATS; Dallas, 6-7-1 straight up, 7-7 ATS

Over/UnderLos Angeles 6-8; Dallas, 10-4

Keys to Chargers vs. Cowboys matchup

Chargers:

Elite defensive play:The Chargers' defense has been one of the league's best down the stretch. They have been among the top three teams in terms of defensive EPA per play since Week 9. They excel at disguising coverages and limiting explosive passes. That will be essential against a Cowboys offense built on deep shots.

Contain the run:
Dallas' run defense has been inconsistent. That creates an opportunity for Los Angeles to lean on Omarion Hampton . Establishing the ground game would keep Herbert out of obvious passing downs and help control tempo in a hostile environment.

Limit mistakes:Herbert doesn't need to force throws against a Cowboys pass defense ranked at the bottom of the NFL. Taking what Dallas' zone-heavy schemes allow and avoiding turnovers could be enough to tilt the game.

Cowboys:

Protect the ball:
Turnovers have undermined Dallas in recent weeks. Against an opportunistic Chargers defense, Dak Prescott must prioritize ball security. He should avoid giving away short fields.

Improve pass defense:Dallas' biggest weakness is coverage. Adjustments are required to slow Herbert and a Chargers receiving corps that stretches the field horizontally and vertically.

Fast start:
With playoff urgency peaking , Dallas needs an early lead at home. Allowing the Chargers to hang around late plays directly into Los Angeles' recent success in close games.

Chargers vs. Cowboys prediction and pick

Despite being slight road underdogs, expert models lean toward the Chargers. Los Angeles' defensive consistency and late-game composure contrast sharply with Dallas' volatility. If the Chargers avoid turnovers and maintain balance, they're well-positioned to steal one in Dallas.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 30, Cowboys 27 (Chargers win and cover)
Spread: Chargers +1.5
Over/Under: Over 49.5

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