For years, trying to figure out where the Chicago Bulls were headed felt basically impossible, because the answer was always just… stuck in the middle. Not bad enough to fully tank, not good enough to actually win a playoff series, and somehow they just kept floating around the Play-In without any real plan for getting past it.
That finally changed last season. Except it wasn't in a good way. Chicago went 31-51, finished 12th in the East, and didn't even make the Play-In. Their offense ranked 25th in the league at 112.1 points per 100 possessions, the defense was 22nd at 117.4, and their net rating was 23rd at -5.3. They also gave up 121.5 points a game, which was the third-worst in the entire NBA.
But now the whole vibe of this roster is different. Billy Donovan's out, Tiago Splitter's the new coach, and the front office has been revamped. They added first-time All-Star Norman Powell in free agency, traded for Nic Claxton , and used the No. 4 pick on Caleb Wilson , who honestly looked kind of unfair in Summer League. Overall, they had an impressive offseason .
Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis are still only 23 and 21, so Chicago isn't out here pretending this is a roster filled with experience and expectations for a playoff run. This is genuinely a young team trying to figure itself out. The real question is just… how fast can that actually happen?
There's enough talent here that the Bulls should be a lot better than 31 wins. But there are also enough holes that calling them a lock for the postseason feels way too early.
Here's the weird part about last year's Bulls: a lot of what they were doing on offense looked genuinely modern. Chicago ranked second in the NBA in ball movement, second in player movement, second in drives per 100 possessions, second in the percentage of threes that came off the catch, and second in the percentage of shots taken within the first seven seconds of the shot clock.
They were also literally the first team in 30 years of NBA shot-location data to take fewer than 5% of their shots from mid-range. Like, on paper, that sounds elite, but then they finished 25th in offense.
That's probably the whole reason for the Powell signing, honestly. Moving the ball around is great and all, but at some point somebody has to actually turn that into points. The Bulls ranked just 27th in isolation frequency at 15.1 possessions per 100, and they just didn't have enough guys who could create good offense constantly.
Powell fixes that pretty much immediately. He averaged 21.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 29.6 minutes for Miami last season, shooting 47.0% from the field and 38.0% from three, and finally got his first All-Star nod for it. And in isolation, he was putting up 1.19 points per possession, which was the sixth-best mark among any player with at least 100 iso possessions. He's definitely not a pure isolation scorer, which is even better for Chicago's collective offense, as even without a heavy iso load, he truly excelled with the Heat in that department.
Giddey should still be running most of the show. He averaged 17.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists last year, basically a triple-double machine even in only 54 games. At 6-foot-7, he can grab a defensive board and just go, no need to wait around for an outlet pass, which is huge on a roster full of athletic players, and Wilson might genuinely be the perfect rookie to slot in next to him.
Chicago took the 6-foot-10 forward fourth overall, and Summer League gave everyone a pretty ridiculous first taste of his ceiling. He averaged 23.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 2.5 blocks in 27.7 minutes and made the All-Summer League First Team. His debut alone was wild with 35 points, seven threes, five rebounds, three blocks, and two steals.
Obviously, Summer League isn't the real NBA. He's not shooting 7-of-11 from deep every night once the season starts, and nobody should build expectations off that, but the tools are 100% real.
A transition group with Giddey, Wilson, and Buzelis running the floor could genuinely be one of the most fun young units in basketball. Giddey could set up transition lobs for Wilson and Buzelis specifically, and Chicago already leaned hard into early offense last season anyway.
Buzelis is the other big swing piece here. He jumped to 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in year two, shooting 46.3% overall and 34.9% from three. He started all 77 games he played in, and his scoring took a real leap from his rookie season.
If Buzelis pushes toward 18 or 19 a night and Wilson is good right away, Chicago could suddenly have four guys averaging somewhere between 15 and 22 points. That's a lot of firepower for a young team.
The catch is there's still not a real top-five offense hiding in here. Giddey isn't an elite pull-up shooter, Wilson's a rookie, Buzelis still has to prove the jumper holds up, and Powell is 33.
But honestly, they don't need to jump from 25th to 5th. If Splitter keeps the ball moving and the pace up, while Powell gives them a guy to just bail them out when the offense breaks down, landing somewhere around 12th-to-16th offensively feels genuinely doable. And that alone could be worth several extra wins.
The offense is the fun part to talk about, but the defense is what actually decides if this team is for real. Giving up 121.5 points a game isn't something one guy fixes over an offseason. The Bulls were 22nd in defensive rating at 117.4, and that -5.3 net rating honestly looked way more like a lottery team than a playoff one.
Nic Claxton at least gives them something they never really had: a switchable starting center who can protect the rim every night. He averaged 11.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and a career-high 3.7 assists last season in Brooklyn. At 6-foot-11 with legit ability to move his feet against guards, he just gives Splitter way more pick-and-roll options than Chicago had before.
And that matters extra because Splitter might be changing the whole defensive philosophy. His Blazers team barely blitzed ball screens at all, ranking dead last in traps coverage at just 6%. So instead of constantly sending two guys at the ball and scrambling to recover, Chicago could play it way more conservative and just trust Claxton to clean stuff up near the rim.
Still, the pieces around him aren't exactly perfect. Giddey's got great size, but he's not really a point-of-attack stopper. Powell brings scoring, not the guy you're signing to chase elite guards for 35 minutes a night. Wilson's got huge defensive upside, but he's still literally 20 years old. Buzelis averaged 1.5 blocks last season and has real length, but asking two young forwards to anchor a good NBA defense right away is a lot to ask.
Basically, Chicago's best defensive version probably needs Wilson to be good way faster than most rookies ever are. The good sign is he already flashed some of that in Summer League; his 2.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game backed up exactly the kind of physical tools that made him a top-four pick.
If he can handle bigger wings while Claxton anchors the back line, Buzelis suddenly gets to be more of a helper instead of taking the toughest assignment every single night. There's also a sneaky important guy here: Jalen Smith.
Chicago was an absurd 11.9 points per 100 possessions better with Smith on the floor last year. +3.4 net rating with him on, -8.5 with him off, a staggering difference for the amount of minutes he played. Doesn't mean he's secretly an All-Star or anything, on/off numbers get messy depending on lineups and who they're facing, but it does mean they've got at least one proven bench center who actually helped on both ends, which matters since Claxton's not playing 48 minutes a night.
Splitter's also just a genuinely interesting piece of this whole puzzle. Portland went 42-40 under him last season under rough circumstances and still made the playoffs. Chicago's roster is different, but he's already shown he can build something functional without the most special roster.
For this team to be a real top-six threat, though, the defense probably needs to jump from 22nd to at least league average, and that might honestly be the hardest part of this whole projection.
The Bulls' projected starting five is Giddey, Powell, Wilson, Buzelis, and Claxton. I really like that lineup with a creator in Giddey, a proven scorer in Powell, two massive young forwards with two-way upside, and a mobile rim protector. It's also just built around one timeline, unlike some of the weirder Bulls rosters from the last few years.
Then you look behind them, and that's where it gets messy. Smith should play, of course. But now Rob Dillingham's getting a rotation shot after only averaging 6.3 points and 2.2 assists last year, though he showed flashes with 26- and 25-point games back in April. They also drafted Dailyn Swain at No. 15, but his Summer League debut was rough with 4.3 points a game on just 4-of-31 shooting from the field, and 0-for-7 from three.
There are other bodies too. Zach Collins is back on a new contract, Leonard Miller's still young, and Noa Essengue is still developing after missing almost the entire season. But there's no Derrick White-type sixth starter hiding anywhere on this bench.
And that matters even more because the injury bug could really mess with the starting lineup next season. Giddey had right ankle surgery in May after his season ended early. Wilson's never played a single NBA game. Claxton dealt with a finger issue late last year. Powell is 33.
A couple of injuries could reshuffle this whole rotation fast, and Chicago also lost Collin Sexton and Anfernee Simons, two guys who could create their own shot. Powell's better than either one individually, but swapping two scoring guards for one guy puts a lot of pressure on Dillingham and the young wings.
So yeah, I'm not ready to call this a 45-win team just because I like the starting five. An 82-game season is basically one long depth test. If Dillingham makes a real Year 3 jump, he could become the X-factor that pushes this roster deeper. He was the No. 8 pick in 2024 and still has that lottery-level scoring talent. Those late-season games gave a real glimpse of what he could be with consistent minutes.
If he doesn't take that step, Chicago might have a serious creation problem every time Giddey sits. The starting lineup gives Chicago a real ceiling, but the bench is what could drag them right back down toward the Play-In.
I think Chicago's finally headed in the right direction. I just don't think that means "ready to skip the Play-In" with so much certainty; this team won 31 games last season. Offense ranked 25th, the Defense ranked 22nd, and they were 23rd in Net rating. That's a lot of ground to make up in one summer.
They definitely got better, and that's the biggest swing. There's a version of this season where it all just clicks, and this team wins somewhere around 40-45 games fighting for the sixth seed.
Honestly? I wouldn't call that crazy, but I also wouldn't call it the most likely outcome. The East is still stacked, and even their own Central Division has the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Pacers, all teams with way more established winning cores heading into the year.
Chicago's roster is basically asking for a bunch of improvements to happen all at once, too. Wilson has to be good immediately. Buzelis has to take another step. The defense has to improve a lot. Giddey has to stay healthy, and Powell has to keep being an All-Star-level scorer at 33. Dillingham (or somebody) has to become reliable off the bench.
That's a lot of potential outcomes stacked on top of each other, so if you made me pick a range right now, I'd say Chicago lands somewhere around 38 to 42 wins, which is a massive jump up from 31-51. It's also, unfortunately, still Play-In territory.
And maybe that's fine for one more year. The difference between these Bulls and past versions is this group actually has guys who can grow past that level. Giddey, Buzelis, and Wilson are young enough that making the Play-In in 2027 could genuinely just be the start of something even better.
The Bulls should improve a lot since last season, and they're definitely way more fun to watch compared to last season's roster. They might even cruise into the Play-In and scare somebody once they get there, as the Hornets did.
But until the defense, the depth, and the young guys actually prove it, Chicago still looks more like a good Play-In team than a real top-six team in the East.
