Chiefs playoff picture: Kansas City’s odds in the gutter after brutal loss to Texans

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Chiefs playoff picture: Kansas City’s odds in the gutter after brutal loss to Texans

Christopher Hennessy, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Mon, Dec 8, 2025 ·

3 min read

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Chiefs playoff picture: Kansas City's odds in the gutter after brutal loss to Texans appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Houston Texans, 20-10, on Sunday Night Football . That dropped KC's record to 6-7, the first time they have been under .500 in December since 2012. The Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in Patrick Mahomes ' career. What does The Athletic's playoff predictor say about Kansas City's playoff chances?

After the loss to the Texans, the Chiefs have just a 14% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic. But that is not where the number is going to lock in before Week 15. The Los Angeles Chargers can drop the odds to 10% if they win on Monday Night Football. Kansas City fans should be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles, as a Birds win would push the odds to 18%.

A Chargers win on Monday would put a serious wrench in the Chiefs' playoff plans, even if they win out. Los Angeles is already at eight wins, and Kansas City can only get to 10. KC could still snag the tiebreaker between the teams with a Week 15 win and some help, but the odds would be stacked against them.

The Week 15 matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers could be the end of the Kansas City playoff run. A loss in that game, even with everything else going their way down the stretch, KC would have a less than 1% chance to make the dance. A win on Sunday night would have gone a long way to flipping the odds. But nothing went in Kansas City's favor in primetime.

After nearly a decade of everything going the Chiefs' way, they aren't getting much sympathy from fans of other teams. They can still pull out some of their old tricks down the stretch, but they need some help.

The Chiefs need help from other Wild Card contenders

The Indianapolis Colts were one of the stories of the first half of the season. They were 7-1, flying high atop the AFC South. But the world came crashing down around them, and now Daniel Jones is out for the season . Sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard now has the reins of the seventh seed in the AFC. That has teams licking their chops for the final Wild Card spot.

The Texans are one of those teams vying for the final Wild Card spot. They now have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, as do the Jacksonville Jaguars. So whoever loses the AFC South may need to stop at nine wins. But if the Colts collapse out of the race and the Chargers slip, there would be a spot open for the Chiefs.

If the Colts and Chiefs both land at ten wins, Kansas City will have the tiebreaker. That is huge for Kansas City, as they beat Indianapolis in overtime back in Week 12. They would also have the tiebreaker over the Baltimore Ravens, who need to win out to get to ten wins. And they are likely to have it over the Chargers. So they are rooting for the Texans and Jaguars to blow other teams out of the water, and the seven seed to come down to a lot of 10-win teams.

The Chiefs have won the AFC West in nine consecutive seasons, but that streak will end this year. With the Denver Broncos at 11 wins, KC cannot catch them. But all of these scenarios still leave the door open for a Chiefs-Broncos Wild Card game that could be the passing of the torch. It could also be the old dynasty roaring back, sending their archrivals home early.

The Chiefs need an Eagles win on Monday to have a chance at the playoffs. From there, they have to win out and get some help. That help involves a lot of Chargers and Colts losses.

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