CJ Stroud’s playoff carelessness can’t happen again for Texans to upset Patriots in Divisional Round

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CJ Stroud’s playoff carelessness can’t happen again for Texans to upset Patriots in Divisional Round

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Jan 16, 2026 ·

5 min read

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CJ Stroud's playoff carelessness can't happen again for Texans to upset Patriots in Divisional Round appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Houston Texans are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and now they are safely into the divisional round after getting a big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Houston's defense shut down Aaron Rodgers and company and tacked on a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat the Steelers 30-6.

While Houston's defense has been nails all season long, coming into the playoffs as arguably the best unit in football, the offense has been inconsistent both in the running game and through the air. That was no different on Monday night, when the offense moved the ball pretty well but tripped over its own feet multiple times with mistakes by quarterback CJ Stroud .

Incredibly, Stroud fumbled the ball five different times in the win over the Steelers, losing two of them on strip-sacks in the pocket. He also threw a brutal interception in the red zone on third down that cost the Texans at least three points.

Against an offense like Pittsburgh's that is helpless against the Houston defense, Stroud's mistakes didn't come back to bite the Texans. However, in the Divisional Round, he will need to be much more tidy against a New England Patriots defense that is getting healthy and peaking at the right time.

Texans thrive on turnover margin

This Houston offense isn't an explosive one like the Patriots have on the other side with Drake Maye at quarterback, so Houston will have to win on the margins in this game. The turnover margin will be one big part of that, which is the first thing Stroud has to clean up.

During the regular season, the Texans had the second-best turnover margin in the NFL at plus-17. Houston was second in the league in least total giveaways (12) and had the third-most takeaways (29), so this had become a strength that DeMeco Ryans had been able to rely on.

With three giveaways on Monday night, and the fact that it could've been more, a troubling trend continued for the Texans in some of their biggest games of the season. He also had a pair of interceptions in a big game against the Chargers in Week 17, so he will want to reel in the turnovers on Sunday to get the Texans to the AFC title game.

On the other side, the Patriots have raced out to a 15-3 mark this season despite only being plus-3 in turnover margin during the regular season. The Pats only had 19 takeaways on the season, which ranked near the bottom of the league. New England also may be without one of its best playmakers on defense in this game, as star cornerback Christian Gonzalez is in concussion protocol , though it looks like he is trending towards playing.

Running game won't be able to hide Stroud's mistakes against the Patriots

One of the reason why Stroud's shaky game in the first round didn't come back to bite the Texans, in addition to the stellar play of the defense, was the running game. Houston has improved slightly on the ground in 2025 from what was a dreadful rushing attack in 2024, but this is still not a very good facet of the offense.

During the regular season, the Texans ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing success rate (35.6%) according to Next Gen Stats, ahead of only the Las Vegas Raiders ' historically bad run game. Houston also finished 29th in EPA per rush at -0.10, so this group struggled to move people on the ground consistently all season.

That was not the case in the Wild Card Round against the Steelers. The Texans ran for 164 yards on 31 attempts, logging a stout 45.2% success rate and a very good +0.13 EPA per rush. As a result, when Stroud wasn't turning the ball over, the Texans were able to stay ahead of the sticks and move the ball enough to control the game while their defense shut down Aaron Rodgers and company on the other side.

It will be very difficult for the Texans to replicate that performance in this game against a Patriots team that is much more stout on the ground. In New England's 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round, the Pats held the Chargers to less than four yards per carry and just a 36.4% success rate.

During the regular season, the Patriots finished 11th in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed, tied with an excellent Texans defense on the other side. They did that without star defensive tackle Milton Williams for much of the second half of the season, and now Williams is back and made a huge impact in the opening round.

Based on the success that the Patriots have had this season, it will be tough for the Texans to count on the same level of proficiency running the ball that they had against Pittsburgh. If that does indeed hold true, the Patriots will be able to run away with this one if Stroud continues to make the mistakes that he did on Monday night.

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