ClutchPoints’ Bracketology: Arizona stumbles, Florida continues its rise

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ClutchPoints’ Bracketology: Arizona stumbles, Florida continues its rise

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Mon, Feb 16, 2026 ·

4 min read

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There haven't been many shakeups at the top of Bracketology in recent weeks, as teams like Arizona and Michigan have continued to roll through their respective conference slates. Even when some of the other top teams, such as Duke and UConn, took losses in recent weeks, they had enough cushion to remain on the top line.

This week, there was a little more activity at the top. Previously unbeaten Arizona took not one, but two losses in the Big 12. That's not enough to knock the Wildcats off the one line, especially considering those defeats came against a pair of very good teams in Kansas and Texas Tech. It is enough, however, to move Michigan up as the No. 1 overall seed.

Elsewhere, Florida remained the hottest team in the nation with impressive wins over Georgia and Kentucky, moving up a seed line as a result. Todd Golden's Gators have elite size and a very good defense, and now they are finally getting the guard play to go with it that cements this team in the truly elite tier.

Where else is there movement in the latest Bracketology?

Bold = Automatic Qualifier

Note – Now that conference play is in full swing, the AQ for each conference is given to the team in first place in the conference standings as of the morning of Monday, Feb. 16.

Midwest Region

1. Michigan 16. Bethune-Cookman/NJIT

8. SMU9. Auburn

5. Alabama 12. Belmont

4. Virginia 13. UNC Wilmington

6. Arkansas11. Indiana

3. Gonzaga 14. Cal Baptist

7. Clemson 10. Miami (OH)

2. Iowa State 15. South Alabama

West Region

1. Arizona 16. Merrimack

8. NC State9. Texas A&M

5. St. John's 12. South Florida

4. Louisville 13. Hawai'i

6. BYU11. Texas/New Mexico

3. Florida 14. North Dakota State

7. Kentucky10. UCF

2. Purdue 15. Navy

South Region

1. Duke 16. UT Martin

8. Iowa9. St. Mary's

5. Texas Tech 12. Yale

4. Michigan State 13. High Point

6. Saint Louis11. Missouri/Santa Clara

3. Nebraska 14. East Tennessee State

7. Villanova10. UCLA

2. Houston 15. Wright State

East Region

1. UConn 16. Long Island/Morgan State

8. Wisconsin9. Miami (FL)

5. North Carolina 12. Liberty

4. Vanderbilt 13. Stephen F. Austin

6. Tennessee11. USC

3. Kansas 14. Portland State

7. Utah State10. Georgia

2. Illinois 15. Austin Peay

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Georgia, UCLA, Indiana, USC

Last Four In: Texas, New Mexico, Missouri, Santa Clara

First Four Out: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, TCU, San Diego State

Next Four Out: California, Oklahoma State, VCU, Seton Hall

Multi-bid leagues

SEC – 11

Big Ten – 10

ACC – 8

Big 12 – 7

Big East – 3

WCC – 3

Mountain West – 2

Games of the Week

Monday, Feb. 16 – Houston at Iowa State

Tuesday, Feb. 17 – Michigan at Purdue

Tuesday, Feb. 17 – North Carolina at NC State

Wednesday, Feb. 18 – BYU at Arizona

Wednesday, Feb. 18 – Arkansas at Alabama

Saturday, Feb. 21 – Miami at Virginia

Saturday, Feb. 21 – Tennessee at Vanderbilt

Saturday, Feb. 21 – Arizona at Houston

Saturday, Feb. 21 – Michigan vs. Duke (Washington D.C.)

Saturday, Feb. 21 – Iowa State at BYU

Biggest storylines to watch

The top seeds are still pretty safe for the moment, but there is currently a big pile of teams competing for the No. 2 and 3 seeds. The gap between the final No. 2 seed, Purdue, and the top No. 4 seed, Michigan State, is very small, so lots of shuffling can happen in the next few weeks along those lines.

Houston hasn't gotten a ton of press during Big 12 play, but Arizona's two losses last week put Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars at the top spot in the conference with three weeks to go. A massive week lies ahead for the defending national runner-up: a road test against Iowa State on Monday night before the Cougars welcome Arizona to the Fertitta Center on Saturday. A pair of wins there should have Sampson and company on the one line next week.

North Carolina lost star freshman Caleb Wilson to a broken hand during a loss to Miami on Tuesday night. That loss alone wasn't enough to drop the Tar Heels off of the five line, but now a UNC team that has struggled on the road all season in conference play has a tough test coming on Tuesday night against another tournament team in NC State.

It's become clear at this point in the season that BYU is in the second class of the Big 12, a tier below the likes of Houston, Arizona and Iowa State. On Saturday, the Cougars lost star senior Richie Saunders to a torn ACL in an overtime win over Colorado. That leaves Kevin Young with just two players averaging double figures in points. AJ Dybantsa and Robert Wright III are great players, but will it be enough to prevent a slide? BYU gets Arizona and Iowa State this week, so we'll find out quickly.

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