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College Basketball Betting: 5 Mid-Major Teams to Back or Fade in 2026-27
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- College Basketball Betting: 5 Mid-Major Teams to Back or Fade in 2026-27
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Here at Action Network, we've covered all the major conferences and discussed overrated and underrated teams as part of our preseason content.
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But it's time to give the mid-majors some love. The powerhouses in the lower leagues are essential to understand from a betting perspective, both early in the season and when we enter March Madness.
So, below, I'll discuss college basketball betting, including five-mid-major teams to back or fade in 2026-27.
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You can lock the top Ivy League team into top-100 territory — or at least close to it. The last time the top-rated Ivy League team in KenPom was outside the top 100 was No. 107 Princeton in 2022.
Given that, the Crimson, whom I view as the Ivy League favorite, is pretty underrated. They return three double-digit scorers (Robert Hinton, Tey Barbour, Thomas Batties II) and two more key cogs in Ben Eisendrath and Austin Hunt.
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Sure, Ivy League squads don't hit the portal much, but four-star recruit Jason Singleton dropped 25 points in an exhibition game. He could add another ball-handler and self-creator next to Hinton.
Last year, the Crimson ranked 221st in offensive efficiency and a solid 102nd on defense.
That group should give Harvard a truly elite mid-major offense and an overall unit that should finish in KenPom's top-100.
Last year was an odd year in the Sun Belt. The conference cannibalized itself, as each team lost six-plus games. KenPom considers James Madison the top team, ranking the Dukes as the 150th-best squad in the league. Similar to my Harvard view, James Madison can finish inside the top 100.
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Preston Spradlin had a terrific portal summer. He brought in a pair of high-major guards in K.J. Windham from Northwestern and Brandon Lee from Illinois. Windham could be the Dukes' best player, and Lee has high upside.
He also pursued a pair of mid-major guards, Gage Lattimore, who averages 16 points per game and shoots 39% from 3 at SC State, and Cavan Reilly, a sniper from Delaware.
Interior play will make or break the Dukes. Spradlin can go with an offense-focused lineup with 6-foot-11 forward Garrett Sundra at the five and 6-foot-6 wing/four Adrian Myers next to him.
That group might be Spradlin's best, even if it sacrifices some defense for offense.
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If that lineup struggles, Spradlin can go with Jacob Hogarth, Preston Fowler or Marley Curtis for more rebounding.
This is clearly the Sun Belt's most talented team and one that's worth backing until it reaches the top-100 — at least.
Iona is one team I'm looking to fade early this season. KenPom puts the Gaels as the No. 2 team in the MAAC at No. 218 nationally, behind Merrimack.
Last year's Iona team felt more talented and went 18-14 while finishing 256th in KenPom. The top two returning scorers are Kosy Akametu (11 PPG) and forward Luke Jungers (six PPG). Akametu shouldn't lead Iona in scoring, but I'm not sure who will.
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Guard play is the concern, at least early on. The Gaels brought in Drexel transfer Kevon Vanderhorst (nine PPG), but he's more of a floor general than a scorer.
They have an influx of freshman guards: Daniel Doyle, Micah Tannenbaum, Nathan Kirk, Abram Williams and a Swiss guard named Oliver Sassella. I just have zero faith in a bunch of unproven guards playing well early in a college basketball season.
The interior should be strong, though. VCU transfer Keyshawn Mitchell and Holy Cross transfer Aidan Disu can make an All-MAAC team. But the Gaels have limited upside if some of the young guards don't hit.
Iona opens its year with a home game against Vermont, and KenPom gives the Gaels a one-point edge. I'll look to back the Catamounts in the opener.
VMI has had a weird past three seasons. The Keydets won four games in 2024, 15 in 2025 and six last year.
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So, why do I think VMI is worth backing?
Well, in 2025, VMI had Rickey Bradley Jr., the SoCon Preseason Player of the Year, running the show. He transferred from VMI in 2024, came back in 2025 and got hurt last year. He's one of the best players in the conference, no doubt.
You could argue that having one great player doesn't justify backing a team. However, the Keydets also have TJ Johnson (18 PPG) returning.
Another name to watch is Alexander Daushvili, a 6-foot-8 forward who played five games and scored 14 points in two of them.
Shooting will be pivotal for VMI. It attempted 3-pointers on 52% of field goal attempts last year but made just 31% of them. That's not successful formula.
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I expect that to change this year, though, which should help VMI finish better than its projected 334th in KenPom.
I don't expect the Keydets to defend very well, but having two elite SoCon players should vault them inside the top-300 nationally.
Last year, Portland State had a breakthrough, winning 20 games and the Big Sky regular season title.
Year in and year out, it's been rinse and repeat for Jase Coburn. The Vikings are tough, athletic and defend at a high level. However, they finished 225th or worse in offensive efficiency in five straight seasons and shot 32% or below from deep.
That leaves them a bit susceptible to a clunker, and that was their undoing in the conference tournament last season.
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Balance is the key here. Coburn reeled in two stud scorers in the well-traveled Koren Johnson, who could average 15+ points per game, and Russian guard Yaroslav Nikonov, who scored 25 points in the Vikings' exhibition loss to Nevada.
That duo gives Portland State the best shooting backcourt it's had in Coburn's five seasons.
Will the Vikings regress from No. 57 in defensive efficiency? Probably, but they'll likely improve offensively, and that's fine with me.
Portland State is projected to finish fourth in the Big Sky and No. 221 in the sport, per KenPom, and I could see it winning the league again. Back them this season.
