The stage for the College Football Playoff National Championship is set, with a clash between the Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers set for Monday night on ESPN. It's a unique matchup, with Indiana looking to cap off the perfect season and the Hurricanes playing on their home turf as an underdog.
Let's dive into our College Football National Championship Game predictions.
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Carson Beck has played fairly well during the College Football Playoff. In three games, he has completed 67.5 percent of his passes, averaged 6.1 yards per attempt and put up 509 passing yards with a 4-1 TD-INT line. However, he has also taken 8 sacks during that three-game span. The sacks tap into his issues under duress, further highlighted by a 37.5 percent completion rate when pressured during the CFP and a 52.5 percent completion rate with a 2-3 TD-INT line on 40 pass attempts versus pressure in the regular season. Indiana's defense tied for the second-most sacks in the nation (45), and it ranks seventh in interceptions (18). Beck is going to be under pressure frequently on Monday night, taking four-plus sacks and throwing a pick.
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Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been one of the best players in the College Football Playoff. Entering the CFP National Championship Game, he has put up 395 rushing yards and averaged 6.8 yards per carry versus Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss. He has also delivered 100-plus scrimmage yards in each contest. He is taking on a Hoosiers defense that gave up a 71-yard run to Dierre Hill Jr., but whose rushing totals in the playoff have been lessened by the fact that they faced two opponents who couldn't effectively run the football. That will not be an issue for Miami. Fletcher Jr. is going to break off an explosive run in this game, finishing with 90-plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown as the most impactful player on Miami's offense.
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Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza will not make it six games this season with more passing touchdowns than incompletions. Miami's defense, particularly its pass rush, is too good for that. For as much cohesion as there is on Indiana's offensive line, there is only so much you can do against the nation's best pass rush at a time when Rueben Bain Jr. has 4 sacks and 21 pressures in three playoff games. Mendoza is going to get hit a lot in this meeting, going down for at least 3 sacks with several others avoided by throwaways.
When he gets a clean pocket, however, that is when we will see him perform like the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He has all the confidence in the world that his receivers will win their matchups against Miami's secondary and, for the most part, Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker will do just that. Mendoza is going to make it three consecutive games with at least 3 touchdowns, while putting up his first game with 225-plus yards through the air since Nov. 15.
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Curt Cignetti will finally have a reason to smile on Monday night. Indiana demonstrated throughout the season that it is the best team in college football; its victories over Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon (twice) are evidence of that. The Hoosiers have the better coaching staff and quarterback scheme, and they are older and more experienced. Miami will at least make things interesting at home, preventing the Hoosiers from winning in a blowout, and it will be relatively close into the second half. However, when the confetti drops, it will be Indiana celebrating a national title, and the program will cap off one of the greatest stories in the history of sports.
Prediction:Indiana Hoosiers 28, Miami Hurricanes 17
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