College Football Picks: Predictions for First-Round Playoff Games

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College Football Picks: Predictions for First-Round Playoff Games

Steven Lassan · Athlon Sports

Fri, Dec 19, 2025 ·

10 min read

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma Prediction

Kickoff:Friday, Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
TV:ESPN
Spread:Oklahoma - 1.5

Steven Lassan:The Crimson Tide dominated the stat sheet in the first meeting between these two teams, but turnovers (three), missed opportunities on special teams, and trouble protecting quarterback Ty Simpson added up to a 23-21 loss. If Alabama is going to get revenge, avoiding those mistakes in a tight game and finding a way to jumpstart the offense against Oklahoma's elite defense is a must. The Crimson Tide have struggled all year to mount a consistent ground game and is unlikely to find a spark on Friday night. Simpson and receivers Germie Bernard , Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton will have to win this game through the air. The Sooners rank No. 2 in defensive success rate and hold teams to just 13.9 points a contest. Additionally, coach Brent Venables' group will have more help on Friday night with the return of standout lineman R Mason Thomas back in the lineup after missing three games due to injury. Although the Crimson Tide's offense hasn't fired on all cylinders in recent weeks, the Sooners enter this matchup with just as many questions on that side of the ball. Quarterback John Mateer was inconsistent down the stretch and tossed 10 picks this year. Expect this one to go down to the wire with a turnover or big play on offense deciding it. I'll take Oklahoma at home with kicker Tate Sandell connecting on a few long field goals to take a close win.
Prediction: Oklahoma 23, Alabama 20

Kyle Wood:As the old adage goes, it's hard to beat the same team twice. The Crimson Tide saw that firsthand when they dropped the SEC championship to Georgia after beating the Bulldogs in the regular season. The Sooners, who toppled 'Bama a month ago in Tuscaloosa, are trying to become the first team to knock off the Tide twice in the same season since 1893. Coach Brent Venables' defense is more than up to the task. OU allows the fewest points per game in the SEC and is about to get All-American defensive lineman R Mason Thomas back from injury. The bigger question is on the other side of the ball, where the Sooners average the fewest points of any CFP team. Alabama hasn't been at its best over the last month, between the no show in Atlanta, loss to OU and a close call in the Iron Bowl. But the first go-around against the Sooners is a different ball game if it weren't for three turnovers, one of which was a pick-six. If Ty Simpson and the Tide play a cleaner game on the road, they can exact revenge on the team that knocked them out of playoff contention in 2024.
Prediction: Alabama 23, Oklahoma 20

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&MPrediction

Kickoff:Saturday, Dec. 20 at Noon ET
TV:ESPN
Spread:Texas A&M - 3.5

Lassan:This is the most intriguing matchup of the first round. Texas A&M is underseeded at No. 7, and Miami is motivated to prove the selection committee was right with a run in the playoff. On paper, these two teams are relatively even. Both lines of scrimmage for the Aggies and Hurricanes are among the best in college football . However, Miami's rushing attack took a step back this season and must find a way to generate consistent production on Saturday to avoid putting too much pressure on quarterback Carson Beck 's right arm. In Miami's two losses this year, Beck tossed six interceptions. The Aggies should be able to churn out more yardage on the ground, and Reed's mobility could be a huge asset against the standout Hurricanes' front. Combine the playmaking ability of Reed, along with the home crowd in College Station, and I'll take coach Mike Elko's team to score a close victory.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Miami 24

Wood:The Aggies got a raw deal having to host the Hurricanes after dropping their first game in the regular-season finale to rival Texas. Miami has rounded back into form after a midseason slump, leaving the committee no choice but to include it ahead of Notre Dame , a team Texas A&M also beat earlier this season. 'Canes quarterback Carson Beck has experience in big games, and he's been lights out for the last month, peppering speedy freshman Malachi Toney with targets. Miami's defense is built to stop the Aggies with an exceptional run defense and pass-rushers who can chase down quarterback Marcel Reed. Texas A&M has won seven in a row at Kyle Field and coach Mike Elko's defense can get after the quarterback, too. But over the last month, the 'Canes have looked every bit like the contender they did in September while cracks have started to show for the Aggies in the loss to the Longhorns and comeback against South Carolina. Miami ekes out a close game on the road.
Prediction: Miami 27, Texas A&M 24

Mississippi Rebels defensive coordinator Pete Golding watches during warm ups prior to the game against the Furman Paladins at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss Prediction

Kickoff:Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV:TNT
Spread:Ole Miss -17.5

Lassan:Ole Miss might be the most intriguing team in the first round. Following the drama around former coach Lane Kiffin and his departure, the Rebels should be motivated to make a run behind new coach Pete Golding. The roster is also at full strength - a team that easily handled Tulane 45-10 in the first meeting between these two teams in September. Kiffin's departure is mitigated by the offensive staff from '25 remaining in Oxford for the playoff, including coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy guided the offense to 7.94 yards a play in the first meeting, and it's unlikely the Green Wave can do enough on defense to slow this group down in the rematch. Tulane's secondary is susceptible to big plays in the passing game and needs to control the pace of the game with a strong rushing attack to have a shot at the upset. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff paces the Green Wave in rushing yards and could find plenty of success against an Ole Miss defense ranked 13th in the SEC against the run. Coach Jon Sumrall's team will keep it a little closer this time around, but the Rebels move on to the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 17

Wood:Storylines abound in Oxford, where the Rebels' national championship pursuit continues with Pete Golding at the helm in place of Lane Kiffin. There's intrigue on the opposite sideline, too, where coach Jon Sumrall has agreed to be Florida's next coach once his playoff run with the Green Wave ends. The overwhelming expectation is that it will happen on Saturday, as Ole Miss ran Tulane off the field in a 45-10 rout in September. The tandem of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy strike fear into opposing defenses, and Golding's defense has only gotten better down the stretch. Tulane's dual-threat quarterback Jake Retzlaff will keep drives alive, but the Green Wave will be hard-pressed to go blow-for-blow with the Rebels' high-powered offense.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 20

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 OregonPrediction

Kickoff:Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV:TNT
Spread:Oregon -21

Lassan:This is a tough assignment for James Madison as a 20-plus point underdog at Autzen Stadium. If the Dukes are going to make this a four-quarter game, coach Bob Chesney's team needs to thrive at the two things it excelled at in the regular season. James Madison's defensive front is disruptive and helped to limit teams to just 15.8 points a contest. Also, Chesney's offense was one of the top rushing teams in college football (No. 5 in production behind running back Wayne Knight) and ranked second in the nation in runs of 30-plus yards with 17. However, even if JMU is able to win a few battles, it will need all of the good fortune and breaks possible to pull off the upset. Oregon's offense ranked among the best in college football, averaging 38.2 points a contest behind a balanced attack (No. 33 nationally in pass success rate and No. 23 in rushing). Also, quarterback Dante Moore is slated to have extra help with receivers Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart , and Gary Bryant potentially returning from injuries. James Madison has nothing to lose and may give Oregon a little trouble in the first quarter. But the Ducks eventually get on track and pull away for an easy win.
Prediction: Oregon 41, James Madison 13

Wood:The Dukes' somewhat surprising inclusion in the CFP set up a lopsided first-round matchup with the Ducks. There was a point a few weeks after the Indiana loss when Oregon looked vulnerable, but coach Dan Lanning's team is back to peak form entering its second consecutive playoff appearance. Quarterback Dante Moore , a projected first-round pick, could have his full fleet of weapons at his disposal if wide receiver Dakorien Moore returns. Even without him, Malik Benson and Kenyon Sadiq are a dangerous pass-catching duo, plus the Ducks' have one of the best run games of any CFP team. JMU blew through its Sun Belt schedule behind a top-flight run game with a shutdown defense, to boot. Running back Wayne Knight is coming off a 200-yard game in the conference championship, and quarterback Alonza Barnett III was named Sun Belt Player of the Year after accounting for 35 touchdowns. All that said, the mismatch in the trenches sets up an Oregon romp. If that happens, it doesn't mean the Dukes didn't deserve to be here; none of the Round 1 games in the first 12-team CFP were decided by less than 10 points.
Prediction: Oregon 41, James Madison 17

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

College Football Predictions for First-Round Playoff Games

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma Prediction

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&MPrediction

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss Prediction

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 OregonPrediction