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College Football Playoff: First Look at Matchups, Storylines to Watch in Semifinals
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- College Football Playoff: First Look at Matchups, Storylines to Watch in Semifinals
The quarterfinal round of the 12-team College Football Playoff in the 2025-26 season is in the books and the matchups for the semifinals on Jan. 8 and Jan. 9 are set.
The quarterfinal round started with a significant upset on Dec. 31 in the Cotton Bowl, as Miami knocked off Ohio State
24-14. For the second playoff game in a row, the Hurricanes dominated in the trenches, as the Buckeyes' high-powered offense was limited to 332 yards and 14 points.
The action on Jan. 1 started with Oregon handling Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl, while Indiana crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. The quarterfinal round was capped by a thriller in the Sugar Bowl. For the second time this season, Ole Miss and Georgia played in a back-and-forth affair. But after falling short in Athens, the Rebels got the best of the Bulldogs in a 39-34 upset under new coach Pete Golding.
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The semifinal round of the playoff kicks off on Jan. 8 with Ole Miss and Miami meeting in the Fiesta Bowl. And on Friday, Jan. 9, Oregon and Indiana will rematch in the Peach Bowl.
What are the key matchups, storylines, and way-too-early predictions for the semifinal games after the quarterfinals? Athlon Sports previews what to watch:
College Football Playoff: First Look at Matchups, Storylines to Watch in Semifinals for 2025-26
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck celebrates in the CFP vs. Ohio State© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami (Fiesta Bowl)
Kickoff:Thursday, Jan. 8
Time/TV:7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
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When the playoff bracket and seedings were announced on Dec. 7, most predicted the Fiesta Bowl would get a blockbuster showdown between Ohio State and Georgia. Instead, a few upsets later, the Fiesta Bowl won't be getting the Buckeyes or Bulldogs. However, this contest still has a big-time matchup slated for Jan. 8, as Ole Miss and Miami are set to meet for a spot in the national championship. If the 'Canes win on Thursday night, coach Mario Cristobal's team would play for the title on Jan. 19 in its home stadium.
Behind quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (30 of 46 for 362 yards and two touchdowns), the Rebels knocked off Georgia 39-34 in a thrilling Sugar Bowl on Thursday night. The Ferris State transfer continued his meteoric rise in college football by torching one of the nation's top defenses, including a late 40-yard completion to receiver De'Zhaun Stribling to move Ole Miss into position for the game-winning field goal. In addition to Chambliss' clutch play, the Rebels stepped up on defense. Georgia's ground game was limited to just 124 yards (3.4 yards a carry).
Miami's road to the semifinals has been paved by its play in the trenches. Behind a mauling offensive line, the Hurricanes pounded Texas A&M for 175 yards on the ground and 153 against an elite Ohio State defense. Cristobal's defensive front has also dominated, recording 12 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss in its last two games. Quarterback Carson Beck hasn't been prolific on the stat sheet, but the senior has made a handful of clutch throws in the playoff.
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The Fiesta Bowl sets up as a classic offense versus defense battle. Can Miami's standout defensive front anchored by Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor dominate once again and keep Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy in check? Or can Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense play this game in space and get the 'Canes out of their comfort zone? The Rebels will have to win again in the trenches, as the Miami offensive line and running back Mark Fletcher aim to replicate their success from the first two playoff matchups.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Miami 27, Ole Miss 24
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) warms up before the 2026 Rose Bowl Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon (Peach Bowl)
Kickoff:Friday, Jan. 9
Time/TV:7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
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Indiana defeated Oregon 30-20 in Eugene on Oct. 11 and now these two teams will rematch on Jan. 9 in the Peach Bowl with a trip to the national championship on the line.
The Hoosiers dominated in the trenches in the first meeting, sacking Oregon quarterback Dante Moore six times and limiting the ground game to just 81 yards on 30 attempts. Additionally, Indiana's defense forced two takeaways and allowed only three third-down conversions on 14 attempts. The Hoosiers also outgained Oregon 326 to 267 and allowed only one offensive score, with the other touchdown coming on an interception return.
Both Indiana and Oregon handled their business in the quarterfinals with dominant wins. Oregon defeated Texas Tech 23-0 on the strength of a defensive effort that allowed only 215 yards and forced four takeaways. Indiana matched the Ducks' dominance, crushing Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza threw for 192 yards and three touchdowns, while the defense suffocated the Crimson Tide (just 193 total yards allowed).
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As with any rematch, the big question is how the matchups from the first game could impact the second contest and how the two teams have improved since that early meeting. What tweaks can both Indiana and Oregon take from that contest and any areas to exploit?
There are plenty of similarities between these two teams. In addition to standout quarterbacks in Mendoza and Oregon's Dante Moore , the Hoosiers and Ducks paced the Big Ten in rushing offense, and are capable of controlling the game through the defensive trenches. The rematch is likely to play out much like the first game. The success of ground attacks, turnovers, and a couple of timely plays through the air are likely to decide the outcome on the scoreboard.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Indiana 24, Oregon 20
Related: Way-Too-Early Heisman Trophy Contenders for the 2026 College Football Season
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Related: Coming Soon to a Stadium Near You: Michael Barker's College Football Campus Tour
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jan 2, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
