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College Football Playoff: First Look at Matchups, Storylines to Watch in Quarterfinals for 2025-26
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- College Football Playoff: First Look at Matchups, Storylines to Watch in Quarterfinals for 2025-26
The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff in the 2025-26 season is in the books and the matchups for the quarterfinals on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 are set. Alabama defeated Oklahoma 34-24 on Friday night, getting revenge from a loss to the Sooners in early November. Saturday's action started with Miami edging Texas A&M a 10-3 thriller. The Aggies had a chance for the game-tying score in the final seconds, but the Hurricanes intercepted quarterback Marcel Reed in the end zone to seal the victory. Ole Miss handled Tulane for the second time this year, and Oregon easily defeated James Madison 51-34 to close out the first-round contests.
The second round of the playoff kicks off on Dec. 31 with Ohio State and Miami meeting in the Cotton Bowl. Three games are slated for Jan. 1, as Texas Tech-Oregon, Indiana-Alabama, and Ole Miss-Georgia battle for spots in the semifinals.
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What are the key matchups, storylines, and way-too-early predictions for the quarterfinal games after the first round? Athlon Sports previews what to watch:
College Football Playoff: First Look at Matchups, Storylines to Watch in Quarterfinals for 2025-26
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) shakes off Indiana Hoosiers defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5).© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY via Imagn Images Images
Cotton Bowl - No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami
Date/Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV:ESPN
Early Spread:Ohio State -9.5
This is just the sixth all-time meeting between Miami and Ohio State and the first time since 2011. The winner of this game will advance to the Fiesta Bowl to play either Georgia or Ole Miss.
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Miami's 10-3 win over Texas A&M in the first round booked a return trip to the Lone Star State for this showdown against the Buckeyes. Ohio State was arguably the best team in college football for the bulk of the season before a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. A late-season defeat and eventual run to the national championship is nothing new for Ohio State after last year's title following a disappointing loss to Michigan in November.
Although coach Ryan Day's team has areas to address following that loss to the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes still have all of the ingredients for another deep run. A suffocating and loaded defense has limited teams to just 8.2 points a game and 3.94 yards a snap. The standout Ohio State defensive front against Miami's offensive line should be one of the must-see battles on Dec. 31.
When the Buckeyes have the ball, the battle in the trenches is also under the microscope. Quarterback Julian Sayin was under too much pressure against Indiana, while the rushing attack churned out only 58 yards. If Day's team can protect, receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate can attack and find success a Miami secondary ranked No. 18 nationally in success rate.
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The Hurricanes' standout defense dominated in the win over the Aggies, accumulating seven sacks, forcing three turnovers, and limiting the offense to just 4.3 yards a play. This unit will be asked to carry even more of the workload on Dec. 31. With Ohio State's defense likely to keep Miami quarterback Carson Beck and running back Mark Fletcher in check, the 'Canes need a low-scoring game to have a shot at the upset. Coordinator Shannon Dawson also needs to find creative ways to get the ball to receiver Malachi Toney in space.
Miami's defense should be able to win some battles. However, in a tight game, Ohio State's offense is likely to be the difference.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 17
Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (10)Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
Orange Bowl - No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon
Date/Kickoff:Thursday, Jan. 1 at Noon ET
TV:ESPN
Early Spread:Texas Tech -1.5
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This meeting between Oregon and Texas Tech might be the biggest toss-up game in the quarterfinals.
Oregon handled James Madison on Saturday night 51-34 to earn its first appearance in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Dante Moore threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns, and the ground game churned out 201 yards against a strong defensive front. Moore's receiving corps was banged up at the end of the regular season but help returned with Gary Bryant and Dakoriean Moore available for the first round. Evan Stewart could also return by Jan. 1. However, while coach Dan Lanning was likely pleased (for the most part) with how his offense played against JMU, that certainly isn't the case with the defense. The Ducks gave up 509 yards and didn't have their best tackling performance of the season.
Texas Tech could benefit the most of any team from the extended time off from winning the Big 12 Championship. The Red Raiders had a few key injuries at the end of the regular season, including quarterback Behren Morton (leg injury). The extra time for Morton to get back to 100 percent is crucial for coach Joey McGuire's team if it wants to make a run at the national title. Although Texas Tech has been known for its offense, the defense is arguably the biggest reason why this team can make a push to win it all. Led by transfer portal additions up front in David Bailey, Romello Height, and Lee Hunter, along with standout linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders have one of the most-improved defenses in the nation. This unit limits teams to just 10.9 points a contest and has generated 39 sacks over 13 games.
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With both teams capable of scoring points in a hurry, along with defenses that ranked inside of the top 15 nationally in fewest points allowed entering the playoff, there are plenty of similarities between these two squads. Combine how evenly matched the Red Raiders and Ducks are, standout quarterbacks in Moore and Morton, along with defensive difference makers, and the playoff games on Jan. 1 should get off to an entertaining start in the Orange Bowl.
Related: Is Texas Tech the biggest dark horse team in the playoff?
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Texas Tech 27, Oregon 24
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws a pass against the Penn State Nittany Lions.© Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images
Rose Bowl - No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama
Date/Kickoff:Thursday, Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
TV:ESPN
Early Spread:Indiana - 7
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Just as everyone predicted back in the preseason: No. 1 Indiana is nearly a touchdown favorite over Alabama in the Rose Bowl for a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals. The Hoosiers have the benefit of extended time off following their win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to earn the No. 1 overall seed for the 12-team field. Meanwhile, Alabama advanced to the quarterfinals after a thrilling 34-24 win over Oklahoma in the first round.
After sputtering down the stretch, Alabama showed signs of life in the win over the Sooners. Quarterback Ty Simpson threw for 232 yards and two touchdowns against one of the nation's top defenses, and the Crimson Tide capitalized on a couple of Oklahoma mistakes, including an interception returned for a score. Those elements helped Alabama rally from a 17-0 deficit to win by 10 in a hostile environment.
However, coach Kalen DeBoer's team can't afford to fall behind 17-0 again in the Rose Bowl and will need an even better performance to beat Indiana. The Hoosiers rank No. 2 nationally in scoring offense behind Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and a standout group of playmakers on the outside. Also, Indiana's improvement on the offensive line and defensive front are a big reason why this team is among the favorites to win it all.
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With both defenses among the stingiest in college football, whichever offense can piece together enough drives in a tight game is likely to decide the winner. Alabama struggles to run the ball but has delivered in the clutch all year with wins in close games.
In an interesting subplot to the Rose Bowl, both coaches in this game (Kalen DeBoer and Curt Cignetti) previously worked at the opposing school as an assistant.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Indiana 24, Alabama 20
Nov 28, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) looks to pass against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the first half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images© Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Sugar Bowl - No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Date/Kickoff:Thursday, Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET
TV:ESPN
Early Spread:Georgia -7
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This all-SEC showdown in New Orleans to close out the quarterfinals is a rematch of a mid-October thriller that Georgia won 43-35 over Ole Miss. The two teams combined for 861 yards in that matchup, with the Bulldogs making a couple of plays late in a back-and-forth game to seal the victory.
The post-Lane Kiffin era in Oxford is off to a good start thanks to a 41-10 win over Tulane in the first round. The Rebels didn't miss a beat on offense in new coach Pete Golding's debut, averaging 7.3 yards a play behind quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (282 passing yards and three total touchdowns). Running back Kewan Lacy ran for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Green Wave but left due to a shoulder injury. His status looms large on Jan. 1.
The high-powered Ole Miss offense is likely to face a little more resistance than it did in the first meeting. Georgia's defense has displayed steady improvement as the season progressed and allowed just 29 points over the last four games. During that stretch, the pass rush has come alive, and the Bulldogs have cut down on some of the big plays allowed in the secondary.
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The Ole Miss defense was vulnerable to the run in the regular season and gave up 221 yards on the ground to Georgia in the first meeting. This unit allowed Tulane to piece together solid drives early in the first round but wouldn't allow the Green Wave to capitalize on the scoreboard. If the Rebels can't stop the run or slow quarterback Gunner Stockton once again, Chambliss and Lacy will probably need to score almost every time they touch the ball in a game that could match the first meeting in offensive fireworks.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Georgia 34, Ole Miss 27
Related: Way-Too-Early Heisman Trophy Contenders for the 2026 College Football Season
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
