The Alabama Crimson Tide responded to a 17-point deficit in the first round of the College Football Playoff by rallying back for a two-score win. A thrilling victory just sets the stage for a Rose Bowl matchup between Alabama and the No.1-ranked Indiana Hoosiers .
Ahead of the second round of the College Football Playoff, we've got 4 Rose Bowl predictions for Alabama versus Indiana.
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Even accounting for a 30-yard run by Daniel Hill versus the Oklahoma Sooners, Alabama still finished with just 28 net rushing yards in the first round. So, heading into the Rose Bowl, the Crimson Tide offense is averaging just 63.8 rushing yards per game and 2.31 yards per carry in its last five games against Power 4 defenses.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers defense will take the field in the Rose Bowl having allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game (77.6) and the ninth-lowest yards per carry (2.89) in the nation this season. Indiana flies to the football and is one of the most effective defenses across the sport at wrapping up and bringing the ball carrier down. Alabama will not have any success on the ground in the Rose Bowl, finishing under 50 net rushing yards and not having a single run of 15-plus yards.
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Ty Simpson is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation when the Crimson Tide offensive line can keep the pocket clean. He ended the regular season, per PFF, with a 69.6 percent completion rate, a 24-4 TD-INT ratio, and an average of 8.2 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. Fortunately for Alabama, it gave Simpson just that on 70 percent of his dropbacks. The issue in the Rose Bowl is that, as Julian Sayin experienced (9 pressures and 3 sacks taken), Indiana's defense can generate a ton of pressure with the blitz.
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When pressured this season, Simpson completed just 47.8 percent of his passes with a 5.9 yards-per-attempt average and a 4-1 TD-INT ratio. For comparison, he had a 3.5 percent touchdown rate when pressured and a 7 percent touchdown rate from a clean pocket. Simpson did, however, throw 13 passing touchdowns (a 6.5 percent touchdown rate) when facing the blitz. In the Rose Bowl, we do anticipate the Crimson Tide quarterback delivering another touchdown pass against the blitz, but Indiana's pass rush generating consistent pressure will hold him under a 60 percent completion rate.
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Fans didn't get to see Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza run much versus Ohio State, but it's absolutely in his arsenal. It was especially apparent late in the season when he ran for a touchdown in four of Indiana's last five regular-season games. We're also just coming off a first-round matchup in the College Football Playoff where Alabama allowed a rushing touchdown to John Mateer. Athletic quarterbacks can have success picking up yards on the ground versus the Crimson Tide, and we expect Mendoza to take advantage of it.
It will be part of a three-touchdown performance by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, who will be able to take advantage of Alabama's defensive tendencies far better than John Mateer did on Friday night. With NFL scouts and general managers in attendance, Mendoza will shine.
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The Indiana Hoosiers are a touchdown favorite in the Rose Bowl, and that still feels like a bit of disrespect to the program Curt Cignetti has built. This was the best team in college football this season on both sides of the ball; the win in the Big Ten Championship Game proved it. Alabama doesn't have the run game to lean on, and it needed Oklahoma to make multiple mistakes to rally back. The Hoosiers are a far better-coached team with a quarterback and ground game that really separate them from Oklahoma. Alabama's playoff run ends here, with Indiana winning the Rose Bowl by two scores.
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