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College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions for Week 1
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- College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions for Week 1
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Week 1 is here, and so are this week's college football underdog picks!
I found three underdogs with some bite, sprinkled across four beautiful days of college football.
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Before you dive in, check out all of our college football picks .
CFB Week 1 underdog picks
| Probability |
|
|---|---|
| San Jose State |
span data-sheets-root="1"44.64%/span |
| Colorado |
span data-sheets-root="1"33.56%/span |
| Louisville |
span data-sheets-root="1"31.45%/span |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps .
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San Jose State (vs. Eastern Michigan)
Kalshi probability: 44.64%
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It's simply too hard to overlook how good San Jose State quarterback Luke Weaver looked against a USC defense we were told would be polished and improved. The senior quarterback completed 65.5% of his passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns.For those thinking 234 yards is nothing, his passing yards prop last week was 152.5 yards.
Last week, Eastern Michigan allowed Sacramento State's quarterback to throw for more than 220 yards while completing 54.3% of his passes. If Weaver can replicate that success — which came against a Power Four defense — he should be just fine against an Eastern Michigan defense that allowed 30 points and more than 410 yards per game a year ago.
In Weaver we trust.
Colorado (vs. Georgia Tech)
Kalshi probability: 33.56%
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Full transparency, I am holding a Colorado +7 in my back pocket, and I know a lot of people will be pouncing on the -6.5 in favor of Georgia Tech .
Rightfully so. That is the number to get if you like a team that lost a superstar quarterback and both coordinators, while bringing in the brother of a former Heisman Trophy winner and first-overall draft pick to start a new era for the Yellow Jackets.
On the other end, Colorado brings in a new coordinator who should bring some life to this offense. The unit will be led by redshirt freshman Julian Lewis, who gets a bunch of toys to play with in Danny Scudero, Kam Perry, DeAndre Moore Jr., and Ernest Campbell. The group combined for 3,560 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns in 2025.
With how many significant holes the Yellow Jackets had to fill after last season, those losses are too significant to overlook.
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Give me the Buffs!
For more, dig into Rob Paul's complete Colorado vs. Georgia Tech predictions.
Louisville (vs. Mississippi)
Kalshi probability: 31.45%
Death. Taxes. Trusting Jeff Brohm to keep a big game close.
Brohm is notorious for getting the most out of his players in big games, especially against ranked opponents. The Louisville head coach is 27-15 against the spread (5-2 at Louisville) with 20 outright wins as an underdog dating back to his time at Purdue.He is also 4-0 against AP Top 5 teams in the regular season.
This No. 9 Mississippi team should be just as good as last season, maybe better. Led by one of the most dynamic football players in the country, Trinidad Chambliss. However, Mississippi is under far more pressure than Louisville. Also, was last year's success all coming together in spite of Lane Kiffin's departure? The power of friendship is real.
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Former Ohio State quarterback — and now Louisville starter — Lincoln Kienholz has received high praise for being very smart, tough, and athletic. Expectations are high that Brohm will get a lot out of him.
Week 1 underdog combo
img src="https://img.covers.com/betting/sportsbooks/336/kalshi.svg" alt="Kalshi" loading="lazy" width="194" height="62"
San Jose State
Colorado
Louisville
Odds (22.83x) at Kalshi
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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