Collin Morikawa finding himself in contention at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is hardly a shock.
Last year was a bit of a grind for Morikawa. The 29-year-old faced his share of criticism after falling short at Bay Hill, and he chose not to speak with the media following Sunday's final round.
He went on to record just two more top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour in 2025, and an early missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii raised even more questions about where his game was heading.
But as golf stars prepare to return to Bay Hill this week, Morikawa has plenty of reasons to believe he can go one better this time around.
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Morikawa may have a bit of a point to prove this week. The way he lost out to Russell Henley in the 2025 event was clearly tough for him to take, and it showed in his demeanour afterwards.
He had a three-shot lead with five holes left but watched Henley pull off a dramatic turnaround, helped by an eagle chip-in on the 16th.
The loss seemed to stick with Morikawa, who became noticeably more guarded in his interactions with the media. This time around, he will be eager to shift the focus back onto his golf rather than any post-tournament fallout.
It has not been a bad start to the year for Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy. Scheffler's lowest finish is a tie for 12th, while McIlroy finished second at the Genesis Invitational, even though he never really looked like winning it.
Still, even without being at their best, both players tend to find a way into contention more often than not.
Scheffler has had some slow starts in 2026 and currently ranks 57th on Tour for strokes gained approach.
Add that to his driving accuracy ranking of 55th, and there are signs that Bay Hill could present more challenges than usual for him this time around.
McIlroy's iron play has been sharp this season, although his driving has not quite matched his usual standards.
That balance might make this one of the few big events in 2026 where neither player ends up on top.
Bay Hill is one of the more demanding stops on the PGA Tour, where missing fairways comes with a real cost and long irons into greens are a common theme throughout the week.
Morikawa ranks 23rd in strokes gained off the tee this season, and sixth in approach. He is also sitting inside the top 10 for driving accuracy.
If his putter holds up, he will be very hard to beat.
According to Data Golf, Morikawa has not lost strokes off the tee in a regular PGA Tour event since August 2024.
His last two starts also mark his first time since last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational that he has not lost strokes in any major category for back-to-back events.
This time around, Morikawa is not coming into Bay Hill off a long winless drought. He reminded everyone at Pebble Beach that he can still get it done when it matters.
He can now head to Bay Hill believing that this could be his first multi-win season since 2021 – and if it happens this week, no one should be surprised.
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