Waiting on the power from Colt Keith
Since we made Colt Keith our No. 1 prospect at Tigers Minor League Report, I know I have been one of his more consistent defenders.
That does not mean ignoring what happened yesterday. The popup Keith failed to secure in the 8th when he and Mckinstry went after the ball before Javy Baez made a great catch in left, was a play that needed to be made. It was also the kind of mistake that added to the frustration surrounding him. The power has not developed as expected, the defensive metrics have been uneven and the arrival of Kevin McGonigle has given Tigers fans another young left-handed hitter to compare him to.
I understand why people are losing patience. At the same time, there is still a solid major league player here. Supporting that argument does not require ignoring Keith's shortcomings. It requires separating what he has improved from what remains missing.
Keith hit .306/.380/.552 with 27 home runs and 68 extra-base hits between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo in 2023. The production was not built entirely on favorable platoon matchups, either. Keith recorded a .909 OPS against left-handed pitching that season, compared with a .939 OPS against right-handers.
The scouting report was fairly straightforward. Keith had a balanced left-handed swing, good bat-to-ball skills, above-average bat speed and enough pull-side power to project as a middle-of-the-order hitter.
The defensive concerns were already present. He had missed time with a shoulder injury, his range was limited and evaluators were uncertain whether he would remain at third base. The bat was supposed to provide most of his value.
That is why the lack of major league home-run production stands out.
Keith hit 13 home runs as a rookie in 2024 and another 13 in 2025. He has nine this season. Those are not terrible totals, but they fall short of what people expected after watching him drive 27 home runs in the upper minors.
The broader offensive results, however, have improved.
Keith posted a 94 wRC+ with a .260/.309/.380 line in 2024. He followed that with a 107 wRC+ and a .256/.333/.413 line in 2025. This season, he is hitting approximately .263/.322/.410 with a 105 wRC+.
That is not the profile of a failed hitter. It is the profile of a slightly above-average major league hitter whose power has not reached its projected ceiling.
The Statcast data makes it difficult to argue that Keith has lost his physical ability to drive the baseball.
His average exit velocity increased from 87.8 mph in 2024 to 90 mph in 2025. His hard-hit rate jumped from 35.3% to 43.7%, while his barrel rate increased from 5.6% to 9.2%.
Those numbers have pulled back slightly this season, but not to his rookie levels. Keith currently has an 89 mph average exit velocity, a 42% hard-hit rate and a 7.3% barrel rate. His expected slugging percentage is approximately .433, compared with an actual .410 mark.
The bat-tracking numbers offer another reason not to declare the power gone.
Keith's average bat speed has gone from 71.3 mph in 2024 to 70.7 in 2025 and 71.9 this season. His fast-swing rate has nearly doubled from last season, rising from 9.9% to 18.9%.
More importantly, his squared-up rate on contact has increased in each season, moving from 35.3% to 35.8% and now 38.8%. His blast rate on contact has climbed from 12.9% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2025 and 17.8% this season.
There is an important limitation. Keith's 71.9 mph average bat speed is only slightly above the major league average, and his fast-swing rate remains below the league average. This is not elite raw power being hidden by bad luck.
Still, the underlying data does not describe a hitter whose bat has slowed down or whose ability to square up the baseball has vanished. The problem is turning that contact into consistent home-run damage.
The video does not reveal a dramatic mechanical change from Keith's minor league swing.
He still uses a relatively upright, slightly open setup with his hands held high. The gather is controlled, the swing remains shorter than the major league average and he can generate good rotation without a large amount of movement before the pitch.
In the Toledo home-run clips, Keith gets his front foot down, firms up the front side and catches the ball farther in front of the plate. His hips and torso rotate together, giving him room to finish through the ball and produce pull-side loft.
Looking at Colt Keith | 08/30/2026The Official Site of Major League Baseball
In the big-league clips, which I mixed with his videos in the minors, the difference appears to be more about contact point than an entirely different swing, from my point of view. I am no swing doctor but this is my take.
When Keith does not do damage, his barrel is often close to being on time but works slightly underneath the fastball or reaches the ball deeper in the hitting zone. Those swings can still produce solid contact, but they are more likely to become high fly balls or drives to the middle of the field instead of pulled home runs.
The tracking data supports that observation.
Keith has been under 39% of the fastballs he has swung at this season, up from 32% in 2024. His lined-up rate against fastballs has fallen from 64% to 57%. He has a minus-7 run value against four-seam fastballs despite making plenty of contact against them compared to plus 1 last season.
Keith is still reaching the fastball, as demonstrated by his 12.1% whiff rate, but he is not consistently lining up the barrel well enough to produce damage. That helps explain how a hitter can make frequent contact and occasionally hit the ball hard while still carrying a minus-7 run value against four-seam fastballs after finishing at plus-1 last season.
Keith's power has also arrived in clusters. Three of his nine home runs this season came in one game against Houston. Four came within a five-day period in June. That is evidence that the power is still accessible, but it has not been repeatable enough.
The question is not whether Keith can hit a ball hard. It is whether he can consistently catch major league fastballs far enough in front to produce the pull-side damage that made him a top prospect.
Keith's performance against left-handed pitching may be the biggest offensive concern.
After posting a .909 OPS against lefties in the minors in 2023, Keith recorded a respectable .718 OPS against them during his rookie season. That fell to .403 in 2025 and is down to .285 through 25 plate appearances this season.
Across 2025 and 2026, Keith has only one extra-base hit in 67 at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
That is not something to dismiss as bad luck. Major league lefties have found ways to prevent Keith from getting to damage. The changing angle of the fastball, combined with breaking balls moving away from him, appears to be creating uncertainty about where he wants to make contact.
The sample also requires context. Keith has only 71 plate appearances against lefties over the past two seasons, partly because the Tigers have protected him from those matchups. That is not enough to declare permanently that he cannot hit left-handed pitching, but it is enough for opponents to continue testing him. If Keith is going to become more than a strong-side platoon player, he has to begin driving the ball against lefties again.
The popup yesterday was a poor play, but it should not represent the entire defensive evaluation.
Keith was approximately neutral at second base in 2024, finishing with zero Outs Above Average. He declined to minus-3 OAA while moving around the infield in 2025. This season, his work at third base has returned to approximately neutral.
His overall fielding value remains slightly below zero, although much of the negative value comes from a small amount of work receiving throws at first base. His range at third has been closer to average, and his arm strength has improved to approximately 83 mph.
That does not make Keith a plus defender. His arm is playable rather than a weapon, and there will continue to be plays on which his range or footwork is tested. But the metrics do not say he has been an unplayable third baseman this season, despite the plus one. What makes his Fielding Run Value is his play at first, which could be lack of consistency playing there, but I digress.
A 105 wRC+ with approximately average defense at third base is valuable. The same offensive production at first base or designated hitter is much less interesting.
That is why his improvement at third should be part of the conversation, even after an ugly missed popup.
It is fair to be disappointed that Keith has not become the power hitter his minor league numbers suggested. It is fair to question his future against left-handed pitching. It is also fair to expect a former top prospect to finish routine defensive plays.
But calling Keith a disappointment and calling him a bust are two different things. I often see this on social media about trading him because his contract is cheap.
The star-level outcome has not arrived. A useful major league player has.
Keith has improved his hard-contact rate, barrel rate and overall offensive production since his rookie season. His bat speed and squared-up numbers are trending in the right direction. His defense at third base has stabilized after a difficult 2025. He has also produced an .851 OPS since the All-Star break.
None of that guarantees a future middle-of-the-order hitter. Unless Keith begins punishing fastballs and showing something against left-handed pitching, he may settle in as a complementary player rather than a lineup anchor.
Kevin McGonigle's emergence does not change those facts. McGonigle does not need to fail for Keith to succeed, and Keith should not retain a position simply because of his prospect status. The Tigers need to find the best alignment for both players.
Patience with Keith does not have to be unlimited. It only has to recognize that the player in front of us has made progress, even if it is not the kind of progress that shows up immediately in the home-run column.
