The NBA has handed out its MVP award 71 times and only one player has won it before turning 23.
Derrick Rose holds that distinction, taking home the trophy in 2011 at 22 years and 191 days old. Wes Unseld, Wilt Chamberlain, Bob Pettit, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bob McAdoo and Moses Malone also won MVP at 23, but no player has ever won it at 21, let alone 20.
Cooper Flagg turns 20 on Dec. 21, which means he will still be 20 when the award is announced next spring. He is also four games into a season that makes the conversation worth having.
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Flagg is averaging 25.3 points, 6.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2.8 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 91.7 percent from the free-throw line. Dallas has won three straight and sits at 3-2, above .500 for the first time since he joined the franchise.
The Rose comparison is instructive because of how the trajectories line up.
Rose won Rookie of the Year in 2008-09 while averaging 16.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.3 assists. He made his first All-Star team as a sophomore the following season, averaging 20.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists while shooting 48.9 percent from the field. Then, in his third year, he averaged 25.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 7.7 assists on 44.5 percent shooting and won MVP.
Flagg's current numbers surpass Rose's sophomore season across the board and exceed his MVP-season averages in points, rebounds and field-goal percentage. The only category in which Rose's 2010-11 season holds an edge is assists and Flagg is within one assist per game of that mark.
The early-season comparison is even closer. Through four games of his MVP season, Rose averaged 26.8 points, 10.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds while shooting 46.5 percent from the field. Flagg is scoring slightly less and assisting less, but he is doing so with considerably better shooting efficiency while contributing defensively in ways Rose never did.
That last part is where Flagg's case separates itself. He has been one of the league's most disruptive defenders through the opening week, ranking among the leaders in steals and blocks. He recorded five steals and three blocks in the Miami win while also handing out 11 assists. MVP voters have historically rewarded two-way impact when the offensive numbers are close and Flagg is already making a strong defensive case.
So what else does he need?
Winning is the obvious answer. Rose's Bulls went 62-20 that season and that record carried his candidacy as much as his production did. Dallas was projected to finish somewhere in the low 30s and the Mavericks will need to remain in the playoff picture for voters to take Flagg's candidacy seriously. Three straight wins are a start, but 50 wins would change everything.
Availability matters, too, because the 65-game minimum applies and Flagg has already missed one game with a shoulder sprain this month. He also has to stay productive over the course of an 82-game season at 20 years old while carrying a usage rate that would exhaust most veterans. He currently ranks 24th in the league in usage rate.
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His shooting from 3-point range needs to improve as well. Flagg is shooting 31.8 percent on 5.5 attempts per game, which is respectable but not enough to consistently force defenses to adjust. Rose shot 33.2 percent in his MVP season, so there is precedent for winning without elite range. Any improvement from Flagg, however, would raise his ceiling.
What makes this worth tracking is the history involved. Only one player has ever won MVP in his second NBA season and that was Bob Pettit in 1955-56, 70 years ago. Winning the award at 20 would put Flagg in territory the NBA has never seen.
Four games are not enough to establish a serious MVP case, but Flagg has produced at a level that makes the possibility worth watching.
