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Could Tre Johnson be the next…
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- Could Tre Johnson be the next…
What does the Statistical Doppelganger Machine say about Tre Johnson's rookie season? | NBAE via Getty Images
One of the Tre Johnson comps produced by The Statistical Doppelganger Machine has me…hmm…the words "kinda stoked" flowed from brain to fingers to keyboard to screen. But "kinda" and "stoked" don't really go together, so…let's just go with "stoked."
Editor's Note: Kevin, you just used the words together while talking about how they don't go together.
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Kevin's Note: I'm employing Literary License. Also, keep reading. Maybe I was initially stoked and then did more research and needed to add "kinda."
Where were we? Oh yeah, stoked .
Which direction will Tre Johnson's career go? | NBAE via Getty Images
Before diving into the comps, I remind readers of what I wrote earlier in the series this year: these comps are not necessarily predictive. The exercise is to see what players have similar production at a similar age. With very young players (Johnson was 19 last season), similar starts can result in wildly divergent career paths.
Johnson had some injury issues but managed 60 games and 1,443 minutes last season, which included 42 starts. What I saw from his rookie season largely reinforced my pre-draft evaluation of Johnson — both strengths and weaknesses.
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The strength: shooting. His three-point percentage wasn't great, but he plays with the confidence of a great shooter. His form was good, the release quick, and he was perfectly to let rip even when closely defended. The underlying shooting skill was evident in his 87.4% free throw shooting, which was elite. Compare with the 87.3% rookie free throw percentage of Kevin Durant, for example.
The anticipated weaknesses were also present however. Which…well…was kinda everything else. Lack of athletic explosiveness (just 7% of his field goal attempts were in the at-rim are, and nearly 18% were in the floater range), and lack of all-around dimension to his game. "Dimension" in this case meaning defense, rebounding, play making.
That shooting though — 45.8% from 10-16 feet and 51.1% on long twos. Those midrange percentages are enough to attract defensive attention, as is the three-point threat. He'll shoot better from deep as he gains strength and experience.
That said, it's tough to excel on a diet of midrange jumpers. Even very good shooters of long twos often are leaking efficiency. They're sometimes necessary, and they're a good tool to have in the bag for when you can't get to the rim or get a three. But they shouldn't be a first option.
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The solution to getting so many shots from floater range isn't for Johnson to work on a better floater. Rather, I'd prefer to see him work on his body and craft to get to the rim or get fouled. He averaged just 2.8 free throw attempts per 100 team possessions (about half the league average) — an indication that he wasn't stressing defenses.
Hopefully the defense and perhaps playmaking will come around. I think he could become a "good enough" playmaker with experience despite the 1.3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio (league average was 1.9).
Let's talk doppelgangers. For those just coming in, this is an annual "dog days" of the NBA tradition in which I run players through my Statistical Doppelganger Machine. The Machine then tells me which NBA player seasons since 1977-78 most closely resemble the reference player.
The Machine's algorithm uses 14 categories, including age. It does not use position or size but tends to produce comparison players from a similar position group. In other words, it's rare for a point guard to get a center comp and vice versa.
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To the doppelgangers:
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Tre Mann| 2021-22 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Age: 20 — Mann showed some promise as a rookie but hasn't managed to find his career footing. At least not yet. He's hovered around replacement level for five seasons and has gotten hurt a lot too. He might have a shot in Washington this year after the team acquired him for financial reasons. If he makes the final roster.
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Jamal Murray| 2016-17 | Denver Nuggets | Age: 19 — This is the comp that has me stoked. My initial reaction was to mentally reject it because Murray has become a very good playmaker. But that happened later. As a rookie, these two produced in very similar ways (per possession) as rookies — right down to two-point, three-point, and free throw shooting. One big and probably meaningful difference — 22.6% of Murray's field goal attempts were at-rim.
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Coby White| 2019-20 | Chicago Bulls | Age: 19 — Smaller and "more point guard" than Johnson, but the production patterns are similar and White's playmaking uptick happened later.
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Tim Hardaway Jr.| 2014-15 | New York Knicks | Age: 22 — This feels like something of a "worst case" for Johnson, which wouldn't be bad at all. Hardaway is a good shooter and good-enough defender to have real value to good teams.
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Malik Monk| 2019-20 | Charlotte Hornets | Age: 21 — I hesitate to include Monk here, though I can see the similarities despite Monk having better athletic tools. Monk's career got sidetracked as he dealt with some personal issues and he emerged as a useful off-the-bench contributor when he moved on from Charlotte.
Some recognizable names in the honorable mention category:
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Keon Johnson
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Tyler Herro
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Nick Smith Jr.
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Klay Thompson
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
While Murray's name landing second had me kinda stoked, I think there are enough stylistic and athletic differences to suggest that's not a realistic trajectory for Johnson. Klay Thompson seems more the archetype (especially if Johnson can get stronger and improve his defense) or perhaps Reggie Miller (who did even less rebounding and playmaking as a youngster than Johnson did last season).
