Bill Simmons continued to dissect Giannis Antetokounmpo's trade value during the recent episode of his podcast.
Earlier this week, Simmons drew flak from several camps after he claimed that Giannis was closer to Joel Embiid than he is to Nikola Jokic because of Giannis's recent injuries, and that he doesn't think Antetokounmpo is still a Top 5 player in the league because of that.
Well, Bill came with receipts this time to prove his argument.
" What are you going to expect for what he's gonna cost? He's getting older. He's moving closer to his mid-30s. Played 13 years, 895 games, 89 playoff games. He's over 29,000 minutes plus 3,000 playoff minutes. Some of the injuries he's had: 2021, hyperextended knee. 2023, bad wrist sprain. 2023, lower back contusion, where he played hurt the whole playoffs when he landed on his back. A couple of groin strains. 2024, left calf strain, missed playoffs. This year, two different calf strains, and a hyperextended knee with a bone bruise. "
Make no mistake, Giannis is only 31, and that's still four years from his mid-30s. But Simmons is correct, Antetokounmpo's body has accumulated heavy mileage, not only because he started at 18 but because he's been in many playoff runs. And in recent years, he suffered several injuries that can be attributed to his physical playing style and that mileage. But that's not it.
Simmons went on to reveal that only Moses Malone in 1988 and 1989 averaged a 20-10 double-double while playing in 50+ games during a Year 14 or later season. Also, he shared that only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, and Elgin Baylor averaged at least 24 points and 10 rebounds per game at age 32 or older. With Giannis heading to Year 14 and 32 years old next season, Simmons says it would be foolish to expect him to be the same dominant player again.
"So if I'm betting on Giannis, to be close to the 29 and 13 guy that he was, and I'm giving up all my assets for him. I'm banking on him bucking two pretty severe historical trends, combined with him suddenly being healthy again, when he has repeatedly not been healthy the last couple of years. And if I'm in that war room, thinking about making trades, I just would say we can't. There's too much evidence that this is dangerous to do," he added.
If that was the first time you listened to Simmons talking about the topic, you would say his research and presentation are impressive. However, if you followed him this week, this latest monologue appears to be trying to refute his critics, particularly Lou Williams, who called him out to stop the "smarter than anyone in the room" takes.
" I got a lot of love and respect for Bill Simmons and a lot of the legends in the sports media space. But we've got to stop the 'smarter than everyone in the room' takes. Some of these takes are just off the wall. Like, why can't we just celebrate the person for who they are, as opposed to comparing them to somebody else's legacy and career? " said Williams.
Well, Simmons just erased the notion that he was making 'smarter than everyone else in the room' take with Giannis by presenting two historical trends that prove his point, and they are damning. Not that he wants to belittle or disrespect Giannis value, but he's just saying that not only is Antetokounmpo not worth giving up the entire roster anymore, but that it would be foolish to expect him to be the same dominant player after a team signs him to a max extension.
This story was originally published by Basketball Network on Mar 28, 2026, where it first appeared in the Latest News section. Add Basketball Network as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
