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Devils RFAs Face Real Offer Sheet Threat This Summer
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- Devils RFAs Face Real Offer Sheet Threat This Summer
The New Jersey Devils do, in fact, face the scary realistic situation of being offer sheeted this summer.
Offer sheets are still the league's nuclear option—rare, dramatic, and guaranteed to create tension. However, they've become more of a talking point ever since the St. Louis Blues successfully ambushed the Edmonton Oilers by poaching Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg two summers ago.
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Creating such a deadline fosters difficult decisions. Typically, if a player is signing an offer sheet, it's for a number that the team who owns the rights are uncomfortable with.
Well, the Devils have three offer sheet eligible players as of July 1st. Arseny Gritsyuk , the 25-year-old rookie winger who made an instant impact in his rookie season, Simon Nemec , the former second overall pick in 2022 that scored 11 goals in a breakout season, and Paul Cotter , who doesn't miss one-on-one with a goaltender.
Perhaps Cotter isn't the apple of the opposing 31 other GMs eye in comparison to the first two. Yet, the threat of an offer sheet this summer is more realistic than ever.
2026 Offer Sheet Compensation Tiers
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$11,939,167+ AAV: Four first-round picks
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$9,551,333 – $11,939,166: Two firsts + a second + a third
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$7,163,499 – $9,551,332: First + second + third
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$4,775,667 – $7,163,498: First + third
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$2,387,833 – $4,775,666: Second-round pick
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$1,575,970 – $2,387,832: Third-round pick
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Below $1,575,969: Nothing
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Arseny Gritsyuk
The 25-year-old showed real promise in his first full North American season despite his season ending early because of injury. In fact, his 13 goals and 31 points in limited third-line minutes paired with his elite analytics in all three zones of the ice give him top-six upside with reason to believe he could pop as soon as next season, turning into a 20-plus goal scorer.
According to AFP Analytics here are Gritsyuk's contract projections vs. what the Devils would receive in compensation if offer sheeted at these numbers:
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Long-term projection(four years): $5.89M AAV → Devils would get a first- and third-round pick.
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Short-term/bridge(two years): $3.05M AAV → Just a second-round pick.
A team looking for a young scorer with top-six upside might test the waters here. A bridge deal in the $5 million range, which would perhaps force the Devils to ink Gritsyuk to a deal they're not comfortable with, or accept first and third round compensation. And a long-term deal in the $7.2 million range but below the $9.55 million range would only net the Devils a first, second, and third round pick, which isn't all that much when acquiring a middle-six scorer with top-six value.
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Simon Nemec
Nemec still has top-four puck-moving defenseman potential with an outside chance he develops into a top-pair blueliner.
His next contract won't net him Luke Hughes money, but certainly his agent will at least start the negotiations there.
Here's where AFP Analytics projects Nemec's AAV for his next contract both short and long-term with the compensation the Devils would receive in the case of an offer sheet.
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Long-term projection(7 years): $8.06M AAV → First + second + third-round picks.
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Short-term/bridge(2 years): $4.47M AAV → Only a second-round pick.
It feels like if any of the three offer sheet eligible players would make Mehta think twice, it's Nemec. He scored 11 goals and 26 points this season and it still ripe as a 22-year-old.
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Yet, the analytics suggest he struggles defensively and is bound to make a costly mistake here and there.
With the 31 opposing GM's ability to reach the $9 million-plus range on a long-term offer for just a first, second, and third round pick, betting on a young talent like Nemec who showed strides in the 2025-26 season and poise at the 2026 Winter Olympics feels like a bet some could be willing to take.
Paul Cotter
It wasn't Cotter's best season in 2025-26, but he has a lot to offer still. For starters, when he's on a breakaway or in the shootout, there's little doubt he's going to score. He's shown a silky set of mitts and has earned the Devils plenty of extra points in the shootout.
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He's also a grinder and hits everything that moves as a bottom-six fixture. If his brain ever matches his hands, he'll be superb middle-six player.
Cotter's contract projection vs. the compensation looks as follows:
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Projection(3 years): $2.325M AAV → Third-round pick.
At this price point, he's low-risk, low-reward for an offering team. A three-year deal around $2.3–2.8M would be easy money with very little downside if the Devils choose not to match. But anything more, Mehta would be winning a trade that nets him a high value draft pick that he could use to perhaps acquire a proven goal scorer that the Devils seek.
Why It Could Actually Happen
In today's NHL, the on-ice value of young, cost-controlled talent undoubtedly outweighs the cost of mid-round draft picks. A proven mid-to-top-six winger like Gritsyuk or a potential top-four defenseman with top-pair upside like Nemec can make an immediate impact for a contending team.
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And with the cap rising to $104 million, plenty of teams are going to have the space to take a big swing, especially when the unrestricted free-agent crop is so thin.
The Devils are in a position where they'll want to handle this internally while ensuring outside forces don't handcuff them.
If another team gets aggressive, New Jersey could find itself writing some big checks—or watching young talent walk for uneven compensation in return.
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