By the end of the Phillies' 6-2 loss to the Braves in Atlanta on April 26, the Phillies were 9-19. They had just lost five of six games to their bitter intra-division rivals and were outscored 32-16. That included a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in which the offense scored a total of three runs with a run differential of -13.
By the time the team next took the field against the San Francisco Giants on April 28, they had a new manager and the team hasn't looked back. Since Don Mattingly replaced Rob Thomson, the Phillies are 70-42, the second-best record in MLB (Milwaukee). Atlanta, meanwhile, has not been quite as good, but they've still been outstanding.
They left their series against the Phils with a 6 1/2 game lead in the NL East and a 10 1/2 game lead over Philadelphia, with a 20-9 record. Since then, they've gone 63-48 and maintain a four-game lead in the division.
What's changed over the last five months as these teams prepare to play four games at Citizens Bank Park this weekend and seven times overall during the next week?
Lots.
Something was off under Rob Thomson. It may not have been his fault, but he didn't have a way to create a different vibe or enact a different cultural shift in the same way Don Mattingly has been able to. I don't even know if Mattingly is a better manager than Thomson, but he is different, and different is what was needed most.
The energy around the Phillies is substantially better now than it was before. Winning has a lot to do with that, but it's clear the clubhouse was still hung over from October's playoff disappointment and needed a shock to the system to get them out of their sulking bubble.
Through the Phils' first series with the Braves, Zack Wheeler was still on the Injured List and hadn't yet returned. Taijuan Walker was on the roster and making starts every fifth day. He would soon be DFA'd but, at the time, he put up a 9.16 ERA in his first four starts, one of them against Atlanta in the team's 9-0 home loss.
Walker is not here anymore.
Wheeler returned in the lone game the Phillies have won against the Braves, in Atlanta, an 8-5 victory in which he pitched five innings and gave up two earned runs on three hits with three walks and six strikeouts. Wheeler has struggled of late, but looked better in his last outing, and he has historically owned the Braves. In 33 career starts he is 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA. From 2021-24 he made 14 starts and posted a 2.06 ERA against them. It was a rough go last year, though, with a 9.28 ERA in his two starts.
It's hard to remember, given Luzardo's last 20 games of Cy Young caliber pitching (2.07 ERA), but through his first five starts of the season, he was getting blasted. In fact, his 6.91 ERA was second-worst on the team, although a 3.21 FIP indicated better days were ahead.
He was allowing a .295 batting average on a .395 BABIP, but at the time, he sure seemed to be leaving a lot of pitches over the plate. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what was going on there, but whatever it was, it got fixed. He's allowed one or no earned runs in 11 of last 15 starts, he has 209 strikeouts on the season and the Phillies have won 16 of his last 18 starts, including his last six.
He did not face Atlanta in either of the two previous series.
Like Luzardo, the Phils' No. 4 and 5 starters were also struggling, and would continue to do so for the next few months. As of July 23rd, the Phils had a 14-32 record when anyone other than Cristopher Sanchez, Wheeler or Luzardo started a game. But all that has changed.
Over his last seven starts, Nola has a 2.50 ERA, albeit with a 4.26 FIP. He's still allowing a lot of home runs (7) but he's only given up 11 earned runs over that stretch and has struck out 45 in 39.2 innings, with just 15 walks. He has not given up more than three runs in any of those starts, and has allowed two or fewer in all but one.
As for Painter, his transformation from an unusable No. 5 starter to someone looking more like a top-of-the-rotation arm has been swift and remarkable. In seven starts since returning from AAA, he's logged 40.1 innings, struck out 38, walked just 13, with a 3.12 ERA.
Prior to being sent down, the league was hitting .316/.375/.526 (.901 OPS) against him. Since then, it's .163/.244/.248 (.492 OPS). Painter lost both of the games he started against the Braves back in April. Nola his only start in Atlanta.
The difference in the Phillies' attack since the arrival of Arraez has been well documented. And even though the plate discipline and walk rate dipped a bit during the west coast road trip, there is reason to believe this is a deeper lineup than the one that took the field against the Braves.
Consider that in the finale of their series in Atlanta, rookie Felix Reyes, who did not make the team out of Clearwater, was placed into the CLEANUP spot in the lineup. Adolis Garcia was the right fielder and Dylan Moore started in center.
Arreaz' arrival did two things.
First, it gave the lineup a contact hitter to bat behind Bryce Harper and drive in runs. Not a prototypical cleanup hitter to be sure, but Arraez' competence, bat-to-ball skills, and penchant for getting hits was a much needed elixir for a group that too often relied on the three-run homer to generate any offense.
Second, it dramatically improved the outfield by moving Harper to right field. The additions of Derek Hill and Bryan de la Cruz have helped with the defense in center and the right-handed portion of platoons in center and left. And Justin Crawford is quietly having a very solid last month, with the 4th-highest batting average on the Phillies since August 4 (.290/.346/.377). His wRC+ of 97 puts him just slightly below average in terms of offense for center fielders, but everyone is happy to take that.
We've also seen improvements from Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Stott's wRC+ through the series in Atlanta was 47. Bohm's was 13.
In short, this Phillies team is far, far different than the one that took on the Braves back in April.
Does that mean the results will necessarily be different? Of course not. Atlanta has been one of MLB's streakiest teams in the second half.
From July 29-August 6, the Braves won 8 in a row. They then went through a 15-game stretch where they went 5-10. After that, They then won 6 in a row and come into Philadelphia having lost two of three.
In short, you never know which Atlanta Braves team you're gonna get.
