On July 16, the Phillies were dealt a devastating blow to their bullpen.
Offseason signing Brad Keller was diagnosed with a torn UCL and is expected to be done for the year. Keller was on track to serve a high-leverage role behind closer Jhoan Duran , but now will miss 2026 and likely part of 2027 as well.
His 4.02 ERA wasn't spectacular. He saw his strikeout rate drop this year from 27.2% in 2025 to 23.7% in 2026. But Keller also saw a lot of his quality of contact numbers improve or generally stay the same as last year.
Despite his overall up-and-down numbers, Keller was of great importance to the Phillies. With him out of the picture, here's who this affects for the rest of this season.
Keller's injury affects a large portion of the bullpen. However, certain pitchers will feel that impact much less, or not at all.
Jhoan Duran is one of those relievers who won't be impacted much by Keller's injury. Keller picked up three saves this year, mostly coming during the time of Duran's early-season injury . Since returning , however, Duran hasn't missed a beat in the closer role. Duran has posted a 1.38 ERA with 19 saves coming back from injury and is the team's unquestioned closer.
Lower-leverage relievers like Chase Shugart (27 games, 4.65 ERA) and Max Lazar (6 games, 5.63 ERA) also aren't likely to be impacted heavily. They may occasionally pitch in higher-leverage spots if better relievers aren't available. However, the bulk of their games will be in less important spots.
The Phillies have two major relievers behind Duran who will shoulder most of the setup load instead of Keller. Orion Kerkering and Jonathan Bowlan have been the Phillies' primary high-leverage relievers and now will see their roles amplified.
Bowlan has steadily gained the team's trust since the start of June , as he's pitched like a true relief ace. In those 18 games, Bowlan has posted a 1.17 ERA, with a 36.1 K% and 6.6 BB%. He's kept the ball on the ground all year with an elite 53.0 GB% and has elite run prevention metrics as a whole, too.
Orion Kerkering has also been strong this season, with a 2.33 ERA over 41 games. By Baseball Savant's run value , he throws the ninth-most valuable sweeper (tied with three others), with a +5 run value. He has equally strong metrics as Bowlan in many categories, though he's struggled more to keep the ball on the ground.
Notably, they've been trusted more with high-leverage spots. Using Fangraphs' game leverage index (gmLI), which measures the intensity of situations a pitcher enters into, we can see how their roles have been amplified since June. Under this stat, 1.0 is considered average leverage, 2.0 is considered high leverage, and under 0.85 is considered low.
Jonathan Bowlan (Start of season to May 31) — 0.79 gmLI
Jonathan Bowlan (June 1 to present) — 1.31 gmLI, increase of +0.52
Orion Kerkering (Start of season to May 31) — 0.99 gmLI
Orion Kerkering (June 1 to present) — 1.26 gmLI, increase of +0.27
For comparison, Brad Keller had a 1.47 gmLI this year, while closer Jhoan Duran naturally has the highest at 1.96 gmLI. Bowlan and Kerkering are slowly closing the gap on Keller. By the end of the season, at least one of them will likely match or surpass his mark.
Things haven't changed much for Jose Alvarado this summer, who has still been unlucky but hasn't helped himself much either. Since the calendar turned to June , Alvarado has walked just 8.3% of batters and struck out 31.9%. But he's also seen his usually elite groundball rate drop to a below-average 35.4%. He's posted an ugly 7.47 ERA in 16 games over that time and has struggled to recapture any success.
Unlike his teammates Bowlan and Kerkering, Alvarado has seen his role in the bullpen diminish.
Opening Day to May 31
— 1.28 gmLI
June 1 to present
— 0.94 gmLI, decrease of 0.34
Alvarado has still been picking up big strikeout numbers and has done well at limiting walks. Even with a decrease in groundballs, he's still limiting hard contact. A turnaround would give the team another steady high-leverage arm and solve the lefty problem. Tim Mayza (37 games, 3.71 ERA) is the only southpaw in the bullpen with an ERA under 4.
Options like Kyle Backhus (17 games, 5.87 ERA) and Tanner Banks (28 games, 7.14 ERA) have offered no solutions to the lack of quality lefty relief. If Alvarado can turn his season around for the final months, he will solve a multitude of bullpen issues.
Within the farm system, there aren't many options to provide the team with help out of the bullpen. But that doesn't mean there are none. Righty Alex McFarlane has been turning heads all season and is putting himself on the radar. Pitching exclusively at Double-A, McFarlane has been one of the best relievers in the AA Eastern League in several statistics, including:
ERA- 2.06 (1st)
K%- 32.9 (4th)
Opponent AVG- .185 (2nd)
FIP- 3.28 (4th)
GB%- 50.0 (10th)
McFarlane certainly has the stuff to pitch out of the bullpen, armed with a fastball that touches 102 mph. While there's no leverage index stat in Double-A, he has earned 12 saves (tied for 2nd in AA) this year. A promotion to Triple-A is not far out of the picture for McFarlane, something the team has been considering.
That doesn't mean McFarlane would immediately get put into a high-leverage spot upon a major league promotion. It would, however, give the Phillies a chance to slowly incorporate him into that role.
It wouldn't be that dissimilar to how the Phillies handled Kerkering in his debut season. Kerkering rose through the minors and debuted in September 2023, before being added to the postseason roster shortly after. Perhaps the same scenario will take place with McFarlane this year.
The post How Does Brad Keller's Injury Reshape the Phillies' Bullpen? appeared first on The Lead .
