Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford? Laying out the NFL MVP cases and picking a winner

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Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford? Laying out the NFL MVP cases and picking a winner

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Jan 7, 2026 ·

6 min read

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The Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots are both gearing up for what they hope will be a prosperous playoff run after strong regular seasons.

The Rams lived up to high expectations this year , finishing with a 12-5 record and comfortably reaching the postseason despite not winning the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Patriots soared above expectations in their first season with Mike Vrabel as head coach, finishing 14-3 and earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Both teams are led by explosive offenses, and quarterbacks Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford are right at the center of it. The two have been the top two MVP contenders for many weeks now, but with the regular season in the rearview, it's time to pick a winner.

Who should get the league's highest individual honor? Let's break down the cases and pick a winner.

The case for Matthew Stafford

If you look at the counting stat leaderboards, Stafford is the clear-cut winner. He is the NFL's passing champion with 4,707 yards and also led the league in passing touchdowns with 46. Despite 597 attempts on the season, Stafford only threw eight picks and was arguably the best pure passer in the NFL.

The Rams had the best offense in the league by most numbers, and Stafford was a big reason for it. Los Angeles led the league in total offense and scoring offense, sitting as the only team to average more than 30 points per game. Stafford is a big reason why, despite being a wild card and staring down a gauntlet of road games, the Rams are still considered one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

On top of that, Stafford has played some of his best football against the best teams on Los Angeles' schedule. He notably carved up the elite Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 15 in prime time to the tune of 457 yards in an overtime loss. He also had monster games against the Lions, 49ers and Jaguars, all three in wins.

Taking out the stats, Stafford's ability to push the ball downfield and attack the middle of the field, especially in the intermediate area, is the single biggest reason why the Rams are able to be both efficient and explosive on offense. He is an expert at moving defenders with his eyes and fitting the ball into tight windows down the field.

In the eyes of some voters, this could be somewhat of a career achievement award for Stafford, who has only made three Pro Bowls and never been selected to an All-Pro team while playing in a loaded quarterback era. While he does have a Super Bowl ring with the Rams and is chasing a chance to win a second one, some voters may lean in his direction to add to a trophy case that currently doesn't do his amazing career justice.

Stafford detractors will tell you about the players and coaches around him and the fact that some of his worst games are much worse than Maye's and that has led to the Rams being a wild card team. Those are all valid points, as Stafford unquestionably helped by arguably the best play-caller in the league in Sean McVay and arguably the best wide receiver tandem in football in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams .

On top of that, Stafford's three-interception game in prime time in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons cost the Rams a chance to win the NFC West heading into the final week of the season. He also had three turnovers, including a pick-six, in a loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 13.

The case for Drake Maye

While Maye doesn't match up with Stafford in the counting stats, he is the efficiency king of the NFL this season. Maye leads the league in EPA per dropback at +0.25, highlighting just how ruthlessly efficient he has been each and every week.

The second-year star has been a completion machine this season, connecting on a bonkers 72% of his passes to lead the league. His completion percentage over expected is +9.1%, a full four percent above Brock Purdy in second place.

Maye isn't just racking up completions on dink-and-dunk passes, either. His average air yards per attempt is 9.1, trailing only JJ McCarthy according to Next Gen Stats. He is also completing 62.1% of his passes beyond 10 yards, also the best mark in the league.

Maye is doing all of this without an elite supporting cast around him like Stafford has. Stefon Diggs has been a reliable producer this season, but the next four leading receivers in New England are Hunter Henry , Kayshon Boutte , Mack Hollins and Pop Douglas . The offensive line in New England is average and has dealt with injuries lately, leading to Maye having the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL (38.6%). That's more than 11 percent higher than Stafford's, who has the second-lowest pressure rate in football.

Speaking of being under pressure, Maye has been the best quarterback in football with defenders bearing down on him in 2025. Maye's EPA per dropback when pressured (-0.06) is easily the best mark in the league according to Next Gen Stats. He also leads the league in yards per attempt (8.8) and completion percentage over expected (+10.8%) in those situations.

There are very few quarterbacks in the league that manage the pocket better than Maye, which is rare to see for such a young player. He almost always finds the right place to go with the football and uses his legs both to extend plays and get yards as a scrambler.

If you've been on the internet at all in the last month, you've heard the biggest knock against Maye: the schedule. There's no arguing it; the Patriots play in a weak AFC East and even got dealt a soft hand outside of the decision, especially compared to what Stafford had to deal with in the gauntlet that is the NFC West.

Maye has done a ton of damage against the likes of the Jets and the Dolphins, among other bottom-feeders, and voters may use that to take away from his case.

Winner

This is a very close race, similar to last year's epic between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson . Stafford has been incredibly explosive, while Maye has been as efficient as they come and has been magical in the big moments. Twice in prime time, against the Bills and Ravens, Maye took his game to another level and led his team from behind in the fourth quarter to get pivotal wins in the AFC race.

The Patriots were also supposed to be a rebuilding team in 2025, and the supporting cast on offense and a defense that is much worse than Los Angeles' prove that. Having a quarterback become a superstar has accelerated that timeline. Combine that with those MVP moments he has had in the clutch, and Drake Maye is your 2025 NFL MVP.

MVP Pick: Drake Maye

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