Eagles playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, ESPN model odds after Week 13

Lamar Jackson will reportedly miss 6-9 weeks

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Eagles playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, ESPN model odds after Week 13

Mike Gianakos, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Dec 4, 2025 ·

6 min read

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The post Eagles playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, ESPN model odds after Week 13 appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The Philadelphia Eagles suffered their second two-game losing streak of the season when they came up short against the Chicago Bears at home on Black Friday. When Philadelphia lost back-to-back games in October, NFL analysts bemoaned the Eagles' "lost and defeated" locker room . Fans wrote the team off as frauds. And the uproar was only partially muted by the ensuing four-game winning streak.

After the Eagles lost back-to-back games for the second time in a two-month span, chaos reigned in Philadelphia. Fans called for the coaching staff to be fired . Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo actually had his house egged . And the team was once again dismissed as toothless.

The frustration is somewhat understandable. The Eagles (8-4) have shown flashes this season but they appear flawed in some area or another week-in and week-out. After struggling over the first half of 2025, Philadelphia's defense looked vastly improved. The Eagles held the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions to single-digit points in Weeks 10 and 11.

But in Week 12, Dak Prescott lit Philly up for 354 passing yards and two scores as the division rival Cowboys won 24-21. On Friday, the Eagles' run defense took a beating.

Is the sky falling in Philly?

D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai each had 120-plus-yard rushing games in Week 13. The Bears racked up 281 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The monster performance helped Chicago dominate time of possession (39:18 to 20:42) as the Bears out-gained Philadelphia (425 to 317).

Saquon Barkley struggled again in Week 13 and even the tush push failed the Eagles . But, Philly got A.J. Brown going. The squeaky wheel was greased to the tune of 10/132/2 on 12 targets. And a Lane Johnson return is on the horizon, which should help get the ground game on track.

On the other side of the ball, Jalen Carter's shoulder injury contributed to the leaky run defense. The team hopes the extra rest following a Friday game allows him to heal. Additionally, Philadelphia added several pieces at the trade deadline that likely haven't fully acclimated to Vic Fangio's defense yet. That unit has put championship-caliber performances on tape this season and could gel in time for the playoffs.

So, was the Eagles' second two-game losing streak of 2025 a sign of serious trouble or a mere hiccup? Let's take a closer look at Philadelphia's playoff odds following the team's Week 13 flop.

Eagles playoff odds: DVOA

The DVOA model at FTN Fantasy gives the Eagles a 92.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That's third-highest in the NFC behind only the Seattle Seahawks (96) and the Los Angeles Rams (95.3). And no team in the conference is more likely to win its division than Philadelphia, according to DVOA. The Eagles have a 90.5 percent chance of taking the NFC East. Only the 10-2 Denver Broncos are considered more likely to win their division, at 91.8 percent.

Of course, Eagles fans aren't going to be satisfied with simply making the playoffs. And the team was expected to win the division, given how poorly the Cowboys, Commanders and Giants started this season.

DVOA gives the Eagles a 20.1 percent chance of reaching the Conference Championship Game. Philadelphia is once again behind the Rams (50.6) and Seahawks (46.5). But the model also has the Green Bay Packers above the Eagles with a 33.1 percent chance to reach the NFC Championship Game.

DVOA also considers Philly less likely than all three teams to win the conference, giving the Eagles a 6.4 percent chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. And the model believes Philadelphia has just a 2.9 percent shot at repeating as Super Bowl champs.

Eagles playoff odds: ESPN

ESPN's playoff model has even more faith in Philly reaching the postseason. The percentage (93) is essentially the same as the DVOA model's. But ESPN has the Eagles tied with the San Francisco 49ers as the team most likely to make the playoffs in the NFC.

While the Bears currently have the top seed in the conference, ESPN gives the Rams the best odds to earn a first-round bye. LA has a 30 percent chance to finish atop the NFC. The Packers (17), Seahawks (16), 49ers (15) and Bears (12) trail the Rams. And the Eagles come in at just an eight percent chance to take the No. 1 seed.

However, ESPN has a better outlook for Philadelphia reaching the Super Bowl. The model gives the Eagles a 14 percent chance to get back to the title game. That's tied with the 49ers for third-highest in the NFC . Only the Rams at 23 percent and Packers at 18 have better odds, according to ESPN.

Eagles playoff odds: The Athletic

The Athletic's model is closer to DVOA's when it comes to playoff probability. The Athletic believes the Eagles have a 94 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Like DVOA, The Athletic gives Philly the third-best odds in the conference. However, unlike DVOA, The Athletic has the Rams at 97 percent and the Seahawks at 95 percent.

The two models also agree that the Eagles have the best chance to win their division among NFC teams. Only the New England Patriots are considered more likely to win their division, according to The Athletic. New England has a >99 percent chance to take the AFC East.

The Athletic is in lockstep with ESPN on the likelihood of Philadelphia finishing with the No. 1 seed. Both models give the team just an eight percent chance at a first-round bye. However, The Athletic model is more optimistic than DVOA regarding the Eagles' odds of repeating as Super Bowl champions. DVOA awarded Philly with a minuscule 2.9 percent shot at winning the title. The Athletic gives the team an eight percent chance. The model again favors the Patriots at 16 percent, followed by the Rams (15), Seahawks (11) and Broncos (9).

What's next for the Eagles?

The Eagles have two more opportunities to improve on their already strong 7-3 conference record. Two of Philadelphia's final three games come against its division rival the Washington Commanders.

But first, Philly will attempt to snap its two-game skid in another prime time game. The Eagles travel to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 14.

Justin Herbert plans to play against Philadelphia on Monday night despite having surgery on his non-throwing hand. The Chargers' QB needed a plate and multiple screws to stabilize a fracture in his left hand.Omarion Hampton is also expected to play in Week 14. The rookie running back has been sidelined since injuring his ankle against the Commanders in Week 5.

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