As the Detroit Tigers begin the 2026-2027 offseason, there are quite a lot of roster spots that are obviously locked up. Among the rookies there are many more question marks, but clearly Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark are in the lineup on Opening Day. For rookies like Ben Malgeri, Brett Callahan, and John Peck, things are much more of a wide open question and will depend on how they perform in spring camp and what the Tigers do in the offseason. Two more rookies came into the final month of the season in somewhat uncertain territory, but the closing arguments made by Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia all but assured their spots next spring.
The 23-year-old Lee, the Taiwanese Tiger (bear with us, we're workshopping), was called up very early in the season in mid-April due to injuries. His six-week stint did not go well. He was fine for the first two weeks, and then crumbled to pieces in May, posting a 16 wRC+ for the month. Now that Lee's fiery, hypercompetitive personality is better known to fans, you can imagine how he took those struggles when he went back to Triple-A for the first two weeks of June. He was not pleased. Fortunately, he took the lessons to heart, and was better prepared mentally when he was recalled on June 13.
He returned with a vengeance. posting a 151 wRC+ (51 percent better than league average) at the plate for the rest of June. He went on to hit .283 with eight homers and 27 total extra base hits and a 123 wRC+ over 277 plate appearances the rest of the way. He put up a 132 wRC+ in July, and then declined a bit down to 118 in August and 113 in September. He was on the good side of lady luck in June and early July, but even so he held up really nicely over the final two months of the season, showing signs of settling in to sustainably above average production including a average exit velocity of 91.1 mph off the bat in the second half. He also put up some really gritty at-bats under pressure, which was particularly good to see from a young player.
Overall, Lee's numbers look reasonably sustainable too. He struck out 23.9 percent of the time and walked 8.2 percent of the time. Those are roughly average marks, backed up by his chase rates, though he did whiff a bit more than we'd prefer. Of course, that includes his early six-week stint where he was a bit overwhelmed. He's still a young player getting better and he showed it from June through the end of the season.
His .325 wOBA was a little better than Statcast's xwOBA of .302 for him. Expected wOBA is based on his contact quality as well as his plate discipline metrics. If we isolate June 1 through the end of the season, Lee had a .352 wOBA and a .310 xwOBA. So there are signs there to expect some modest regression, but at the same time, for a 23-year-old rookie that's pretty good because he should be able to settle in and trim a few strikeouts out of the profile going forward. There are no guarantees, but it feels pretty easy to bet on Lee working his tail off and getting better.
Defensively there are a lot bigger question marks. He was below average at both second and third base, with some of that weakness coming from errors, not more subtle distinctions like range. Having watched a lot of Hao-Yu Lee during his time in the Tigers farm system, this was all somewhat surprising. He's certainly not a plus defender, but the kind of mistakes he made this season, where he just dropped or otherwise misplayed quite a few balls, wasn't so common in his minor league work. He's certainly not the softest handed guy around, but I do think he'll grade out closer to average at both positions with more time and experience.
The Tigers have themselves a player here. Maybe not one who starts 155 games next season, but a lot more than just a platoon bat. Lee has a history of beating up on lefties and struggling with right-handed pitching, but he balanced things out well this year, hitting right-handers a little better actually. That probably won't last, because it rarely does, but Lee can handle himself no matter who is on the found. To become a really dangerous hitter, he will need to pull more balls in the air, but he's already showing average power and may well get better. Barring some kind of disastrous spring camp, and that may not even matter if spring camp starts late and is shortened anyway, limiting the abilty to evaluate players, Lee is going to be on the Opening Day roster and may be the Tigers starting third baseman much of the time, depending on whether Max Anderson is ready to play some second base for them or not, and whether John Peck looks a little more hitterish and gets regular work at shortstop.
As for Eduardo Valencia, the man was absolutely on fire in August and September. The 26-year-old catcher posted a whopping 182 wRC+ in 42 games. He hit .341 with eight homers in a quarter of the season. The issue is that he was also incredibly lucky on balls in play and showed off a pretty lousy approach at the plate. Still, pitchers make mistakes, and Valencia hit just about every one they made with authority.
Valencia walked just 4.3 percent of the time, and his chase rate (O-swing %) was a whopping 35.3 percent. And yet his strikeout rate was a pretty reasonable 23.2 percent, just a little worse than league average. He's a decent bad ball hitter and shows some knack for fouling off pitchers pitches to stay in counts, but his swing discipline is going to have to improve. As long as they can get him chasing this much, pitchers will figure out how to exploit him. It will be difficult to sustain even average production over the long term, despite his quality power production. Valencia's chase rates in the minor leagues were quite a bit better than this, and again we're only talking about 42 games worth of major league work, so hopefully he can cut into that number and be more selective as he gains experience against major league pitching.
As a bat first catcher, there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to improve his process at the plate. However, there are some positive signs defensively that say he'll be able to hold up as a part-time catcher, handling something like 40-50 games behind the plate in relief of Dillon Dingler, and spending the rest of his time DH-ing. Valencia has played a little bit of first base, but it was pretty ugly there and he'd need a lot of reps to develop at the position. There just isn't really an opportunity to make that happen, and meanwhile the Tigers have 3-4 other players who should probably be playing first base above any other position.
Valencia graded out as a +1 in blocks above average per Statcast. He was a +2 in framing runs above average. His numbers when I checked in early September were a bit below average, but with more work with the major league coaching staff and in particular, catching coach Ryan Sienko, Valencia showed some improvement. Former Tigers Triple-A manager Gabe Alvarez noted at the end of the 2025 season that while Valencia was below average in those metrics, he was working hard to improve. A year later, he appears to have been correct.
The real weakness is still controlling the running game. His 1.95 seconds average pop time is a little below average, though we're talking about some pretty fine margins. That's workable, but Valencia's 81.6 mph average throw is pretty poor arm strength for a major league catcher. Can he improve on that in the offseason? Well, they teach pitchers how to throw harder, but at age 26 already I don't really love his chances. Most likely he's developed into a solid catcher behind the plate who is going to struggle to control the running game. As long as he hits, that's not the worst flaw to deal with on a part-time basis.
The Tigers have some interesting young catchers, mainly Thayron Liranzo and perhaps the suddenly surging Luke Shliger, who may be ready to contribute later in the 2027 season. Josue Briceño is still more in Valencia territory, where the skills behind the plate are a bit on the light side, and the bat is the far more important part of the equation. I don't really foresee any of these guys forcing their way onto the roster immediately next spring, certainly not behind the plate. But there is help coming eventually, and if the Tigers have Valencia as their primary backup for one season they'll probably be alright. The offensive contributions are probably going to outweigh the option of having a better defensive catcher who doesn't hit much, a la Jake Rogers.
The Tigers have an interesting crop of rookies coming next season. They should have support for the lineup as the season progresses from guys like Max Anderson, Briceño, and Zyhir Hope. Those players, along with this season's first year players like Peck, Callahan, and Ben Malgeri, will still have to win a job in spring training. Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia separated themselves into a bit of a different category with their strong performance over the final six weeks of the season. The duo should have an Opening Day roster spot locked up next spring barring something we can't foresee, like an injury.
Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark took over the team in 2026, but they weren't the only ones to impress. Hopefully Lee and Valencia, now knowing what to expect, can refine their games a little further this offseason and remain consistent contributors in 2027 and beyond.
