Not every tight end ranked outside of the top 15 is an auto-sit in fantasy football. Upside presents itself in different ways. Cade Otton of the Buccaneers is averaging 5.8 targets per game, only 1.0 fewer than the fourth-highest in fantasy football. Jake Ferguson is T-2 in touchdowns scored with a total of three. So, are either of these guys startable in Week 5? Let's find out.
Sep 27, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Joshua Metellus (44) tackles Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton (88) during the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Only two Buccaneers pass-catchers are averaging over 5.0 targets per game - Emeka Egbuka (6.0) and Otton (5.8). Only three pass-catchers are running at least 30 routes per game - Egbuka (34.8), Otton (34.0), and Chris Godwin (34.0).
Of 30 NFL tight ends with at least 12 targets, Otton ranks 13th in yards per reception. However, that number is a bit flawed. The reason? Jalon Daniels.
The Buccaneers field their undrafted quarterback for the second straight week on Thursday Night Football with Baker Mayfield out. In Week 4, Daniels averaged a shallow 7.8 yards per attempt and 3.9 yards per completion.
The man it affected least was Otton. He had 6 targets in Week 4, catching every single one for 9.3 yards per reception. Naturally, a tight end would be a favorite of a young quarterback in a simple pass script. The position historically averages fewer yards per reception, and thus, Otton can be a best friend to Daniels.
Nonetheless, that is a hypothesis for Week 5. My Week 5 projection lists Otton as the TE24 against the Cowboys. 4.4 targets, 2.9 receptions, and a 15.9% chance to score a touchdown are what are foreseen. That is his share of Daniels' 198.7 projected passing yards.
The Cowboys offer a defense ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends . There is no accurate way to project Otton's red-zone expectations in a Daniels-run offense with such a minuscule sample size.
Oct 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) is tackled by Houston Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter (3) at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Ferguson has a shallow but productive 2026 season. Volatile indeed, but with upside. He has a 10% target share; fifth on the team. But Ferguson has three total touchdowns, while the Cowboys offense has only thrown seven touchdowns to receivers all season, including Ferguson.
Ferguson's catch rate on his 15 total targets is 80%. His yards per reception is a very low 7.0. He runs the fourth-most routes on the team (29.3 per game), or 78% of all routes run season to date.
Dak Prescott has thrown 22 red-zone passes in 2026. Of those, Ferguson has been targeted four times (19% of the time). He has caught every target, accounting for three of those touchdowns.
It proves that Ferguson is efficient, but even in the immense volume the Cowboys put out, he is averaging 1.0 target per game in the red area. Naturally, the 100% catch rate will normalize. Ferguson is touchdown-reliant on 3.0 receptions per game, and unless the matchup is splendid, he leaves a lot to be desired.
The Buccaneers rank 25th-best in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. That is 6.5 receptions, 68.2 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns per game. In the red zone, Tampa Bay is stalwart: 2nd-best in red zone conversion rate allowed (41.67%).
I have Ferguson projected as the TE20 in Week 5 fantasy football. It is 6.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, 34.2 yards, and a 21.4% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Though Otton has a higher percentage of his offense, volume matters. The Cowboys project for around 40% more passing attempts in this game. Ferguson projects for nearly two more total targets.
Ferguson also offers a better 2026 catch rate, more proven red-zone work, and, importantly, a far better quarterback. Neither tight end has a glorious start in Week 5, and truthfully, I would bench either. But if you are in a squeeze, better projections are the way to go with Jake Ferguson.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Cade Otton or Jake Ferguson on Thursday Night Football? .
