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Fantasy football start/sit advice for Week 9
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- Fantasy football start/sit advice for Week 9
Welcome to Week 9 of the fantasy football season! I have some players here I think you should start and some, well, I think you should sit. As usual, don't blindly bench guys who are "sits." If you don't have another player worth starting in his place, well, you do the math.
Bye Weeks
Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans
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Quarterbacks
Start
Malik Willis, Dolphins at Lions
Well, when I said to start Jacoby Brissett last week I was worried about him getting benched, but didn't expect Minshew Mania was going to make a comeback. This week, we have a somewhat similar situation in that the Dolphins take on a team that should be able to score on them, get a lead, and then let Willis do everything he can to bring his team back. And we know Willis isn't going to get benched. Well, he shouldn't, because he's been playing well.
The Lions' defense gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, which is made up by the most passing yards and passing touchdowns. The analytics are a bit better than dead last in all categories, but they are mostly in the bottom half of the league. The Lions are just the perfect team to throw on, as their run defense is strong and they score a lot of points on offense, while their pass defense is weak overall.
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Drew Lock, Seahawks at Cardinals
Lock has already played this season, as Sam Darnold was injured early on in Week 1 against the Patriots. He played well in that game and then got the start against this same Cardinals defense in Week 2. He then played great in that game, completing 19-of-26 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns.
Only the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Cardinals so far. And maybe this time around, Gardner Minshew will give the Cardinals a little better chance than Jacoby Brissett to keep the game close, which would help Lock reach his upside.
Sit
Geno Smith, Jets at Chiefs
Smith has been a usable streamer lately, but this week he heads to Kansas City to take on a tough Chiefs pass defense. Kansas City will want to get back on track after a devastating loss to the Broncos and the Jets are a team to get right against. The Chiefs' pass defense has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and rank Top 10 in almost all of the pass defense categories.
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Tyler Shough, Saints at Browns
The Browns have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. They've also allowed the sixth-fewest net yards per pass attempt and the fourth worst completion percentage. Shough has been inconsistent, but does have upside. This matchup isn't set up for him to reach that upside this week though.
Running backs
Start
Jonah Coleman, Broncos vs. Panthers
The Broncos get a home game this week against a Panthers team that's giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The good news for fantasy is that we finally have some clarity in this Denver backfield. Second-year receiving back RJ Harvey is on IR for now and Week 1 starter JK Dobbins appears to have lost the lead back job to Coleman. That was apparent against a good Chiefs defense last week, when Coleman had 15 touches for 104 total yards and a touchdown. He clearly played ahead of Dobbins and this week he gets a much better matchup.
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Woody Marks, Texans vs. Chargers
With David Montgomery out, Marks has taken over as lead back and it hasn't gone all that well for fantasy. But, his usage remains strong with 17 and 20 touches over the last two matchups. This week he gets a reeling Chargers defense at home. We've seen the Chargers give up strong games to Emmanuel Wilson and JK Dobbins, as well as studs like Kenneth Walker, James Cook, and the duo of Blake Corum and Kyren Williams. On the season, they've allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs.
Sit
Ollie Gordon, Dolphins at Lions
I expect the Lions will get out to a lead in this one, pushing Malik Willis to throw more than usual. And even if Gordon gets enough of a workload, he still has a tough matchup. The Lions are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and the sixth-fewest percentage of 10+ yard runs on the season. Gordon is good, and the no-doubt lead back, so he has volume based appeal this week if you need him, but I do not like his upside.
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Rachaad White, Commanders at Rams
The Rams have allowed two rushing touchdowns all season and just one game of 100+ yards rushing, and both of those were the Bills' James Cook in Week 5. White is the last man standing with injuries to Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols, but Washington isn't going to push him to be a bell-cow back. Austin Ekeler will continue to see work and they'll likely get Robert Henry Jr. in there as well. This isn't a situation I'd look to target.
Wide receivers
Start
KC Concepcion, Browns vs. Saints
Right now Concepcion looks like the Browns No. 1 receiver with a 25% first read target rate to lead the team. He had a big game against the Titans two weeks ago, but was stymied by the Steelers, who sacked Deshaun Watson eight times. This week should be a bit easier against the Saints at home. New Orleans' pass defense is middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but over the last five games they've allowed the most yards per target to slot receivers.
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Malachi Fields, Giants at Eagles
Will JJ McCarthy continue his strong play this week in Philadelphia? Maybe, but I do think he's going to give his receivers chances to make explosive plays either way. And the Eagles pass defense has been bad this season. Philly has allowed the third-most receptions, second-most yards, third-most touchdowns, and the most fantasy points to wide receivers through eight games. Malik Nabers says he will play, but he is dealing with a knee injury that has kept him out of practice. Isaiah Likely is high on the pecking order as well, but the Eagles have been tougher on tight ends, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Sit
Jalen Coker, Panthers at Broncos
Coker has slowed down as Bryce Young has taken a big step backwards over the last two weeks. Young is getting pressured like crazy, as the offensive line has lost key players. Heading to Denver, with Patrick Surtain back on the field, isn't a good recipe to bounce back. On the season, the Broncos have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
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Adonai Mitchell, Jets at Chiefs
Mitchell proved again that he can be the top target for the Jets, as he went off last week against the Raiders. In that game, rookie Omar Cooper Jr. started and played a full complement of snaps, but had zero targets. This was after Cooper had gone off the previous two weeks. This passing offense has some strong receivers, but too many of them to predict who will be the top guy each week. Garrett Wilson isn't going anywhere, and they have two tight ends they like as well. And this week they get Breece Hall back, who is a strong receiver. Now, add in the fact that the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and it's too risky for me.
Tight Ends
Start
Greg Dulcich, Dolphins at Lions
What are you going to do other than target the Lions with tight ends? It's all there is! Well, it's something we need to keep doing as long as the tight end in question has some upside. Detroit continues to give up useful fantasy stats to the majority of the tight ends they face. In seven games they've allowed 61 receptions for 684 yards and 11 touchdowns to the position. All league highs.
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Dulcich hasn't caught a touchdown yet, but he has been a main target, with only Malik Washington seeing more this season. He's also second on the team in red zone targets. Over the last four weeks he's averaged 4.5 receptions for 55.3 yards, which isn't cutting it for fantasy without touchdowns, but the usage is good enough to like his chances in this matchup.
Kyle Pitts, Falcons at Bengals (Spain)
Last week the Falcons were completely shut down due to rain, but don't let that dissuade you from playing Falcons against the Bengals this week in Spain. Cincinnati has given up the second-most yards and receptions to tight ends, along with the most yards per reception to the position. They haven't allowed top 5 fantasy points to the position because they've kept them out of the end zone, but that won't last.
Sit
Dalton Kincaid, Bills vs. Vikings
Kincaid has been a bit erratic for fantasy, as he started out with two huge games, then had four down games, and is now coming off a TE4 performance against the Ravens. This week he'll face the Vikings, who have smothered tight ends all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points, receptions and touchdowns (0). Last week they held Sam Laporta to three receptions on five targets for 33 yards.
