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FAU vs ULM Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for September 26
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- FAU vs ULM Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for September 26
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: FAU WR Easton Messer.
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The FAU Owls take on the ULM Warhawks in Monroe, Louisiana, on Saturday, Sept. 26. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
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FAU is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -530. ULM, meanwhile, enters as a +13.5 underdog and is +390 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 total points.
Here's my FAU vs ULM predictionand college football pick for Saturday, September 26.
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FAU vs ULM Pick: FAU -13.5
My FAU vs ULM best bet is on the Owls to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
FAU vs ULM Odds
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FAU vs ULM point spread: FAU -13.5 (-110), ULM +13.5 (-110)
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FAU vs ULM over/under: 57.5 (-115o / -105u)
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FAU vs ULM moneyline: FAU -530, ULM +390
The pass-happy Owls draw one of the softest cover units in the country this week — and that's not just me talking. ULM checks in dead last in coverage (138th of 138) and 124th in opposing quarterback rating, per PFF .
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Completions of 10-plus yards downfield are essentially on the menu every snap. In fact, the Warhawks allow north of 11 of those plays a game.
That Mississippi State opener where the game slowed late was more about the Bulldogs bringing in their backups and grinding the clock than ULM suddenly finding a way to stop the deep ball.
Put simply, this Warhawks defense is poorly constructed to handle FAU's passing attack.
The Owls can go wherever they want with Caden Veltkamp under center, whether that's to Easton Messer or Kelby Valsin, and they can consistently stretch the field.
I'd be shocked if FAU didn't push 400 passing yards in this one, which in turn forces ULM to try and trade shots through the air.
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That's a problem, because the quarterback situation for ULM is messy. Aidan Armenta has started more than 20 games, and the tape is clear: He's inaccurate, turnover-prone and not a facilitator for explosive plays.
The Warhawks have also trotted out Austin Carlisle, who's an athletic running option but not a polished passer.
That duality makes them somewhat one-dimensional. If FAU's defense can contain the scramble threat and dial up some pressure or spies (they've been active schematically in Year 2), ULM won't be able to sustain methodical drives or the quick-strike scores that keep games close.
You can point to a couple of tangible examples that support this.
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UAB held ULM to 257 total yards earlier this season, and Southeastern Louisiana's defensive shortcomings earlier in the year kind of padded ULM's numbers, but it still lost.
That's not good for head coach Bryant Vincent. He's 8-19 straight up and, realistically, drawing dead for a bowl this year.
The game flow looks straightforward. FAU airs it out, ULM is forced to respond through the arm of an iffy quarterback, and the Owls defense tries to eliminate the easy explosive plays.
Even if Carlisle gets in and provides some scramble value, FAU should find a way to limit the quick strikes and make ULM grind it out for points. I don't see a blueprint for an upset with how matchup-dependent ULM is and how vulnerable it is on the back end.
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The line being under two touchdowns is something I'd flag. Sometimes you can get overexcited fading the apparent bottom of the FBS barrel, but this price feels about right for an FAU team that still needs to lock in on its path to bowl eligibility.
The Owls scored only 16 points last week in a rivalry game and aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one. FAU should handle this comfortably.
Pick: FAU -13.5
