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Fernando Mendoza Just Won the Heisman Trophy. What Does His NFL Future Look Like?
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- Fernando Mendoza Just Won the Heisman Trophy. What Does His NFL Future Look Like?
When it comes to quarterbacks, winning the Heisman Trophy can be a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to future NFL success. For every Jayden Daniels , Lamar Jackson , Cam Newton , and Robert Griffin III who takes that award and is then able to take the NFL by storm for a time, there's at least one Johnny Manziel , Danny Wuerffel, Tim Tebow , or Troy Smith who couldn't quite reach those heights.
On Saturday night, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza became the 37th quarterback to win the award after a season with the Hoosiers in which he has (so far) completed 226 of 319 passes for 2,980 yards, an FBS-high 33 touchdowns, six interceptions, an FBS-high 9.4 yards per attempt, an FBS-high 10.66 Adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, and a passer rating of 126.7 — second-highest among FBS quarterbacks who took at least 50% of their teams' snaps this season, behind only Ohio State 's Julian Sayin (also a Heisman finalist this year) and his 127.6.
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When under pressure this season, Mendoza has completed 38 of 73 passes for 589 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 104.2. And if you're thinking of blitzing Mendoza at any level, think again — when blitzed in the 2025 season, he's completed 103 of 151 passes for 1,413 yards, 19 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 129.2.
Just as importantly when it comes to today's NFL, Mendoza has been nails against simulated pressures, when defenses show a blitz look and drop more defenders than expected into coverage. Mendoza has faced three or fewer pass rushers this season on 41 dropbacks, and he's completed 28 of 37 passes for 323 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 108.3. In an NFL where you have defensive coordinators like Brian Flores of the Minnesota Vikings who will rush six or more on one snap, and then turn around and drop eight on the next snap, this is vital.
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It's also crucial that Mendoza has a grip on what to do when defenses flip their safeties and coverages post-snap, because he will see a ton of this at the next level. Several of Mendoza's most explosive passes this season came after the defense changed the picture to a discernible degree, and for the most part, he has had no issue reading that out and making the right play.
I spoke with Robert Griffin III this week about Mendoza's game and his NFL future , and RGIII referred to Mendoza as "The Supercomputer." The more Mendoza tape you watch, the more that makes sense.
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Robert Griffin III evaluates Fernando Mendoza's path to the NFL (2:26)
Mendoza has no issue getting deep into what he sees on the field, and it's impressive. When NFL coaches and executives get to meet with him at the scouting combine and during private visits, I imagine they'll be similarly knocked out.
As far as the offense that Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (no relation to any of the more famous Shanahans) put on the field, it's fairly NFL-conversant. Mendoza shouldn't have too much of a problem with what happens to college quarterbacks who are throwing outside the numbers in the NCAA's wider-hashmark fields, something I also asked Griffin about in regards to Vanderbilt 's Diego Pavia, another Heisman finalist.
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Is Diego Pavia the next Baker Mayfield ? (1:44)
Yes, the Hoosiers will run spread stuff once in a while, but it's not the team's predominant trait. Nor is this an offense buttressed by an abnormal rate of RPO concepts — but if your NFL offense is comparatively RPO-heavy, Mendoza won't have any issue adapting. On 84 RPO dropbacks this season, he's completed 63 of 80 passes for 557 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 111.3.
And Mendoza has pretty much nailed the NFL-mandatory skill of working through his progressions to create explosive passing plays. This gives him the confidence required to accurately make tight-window throws downfield against more complicated coverage concepts, and using his own route concepts to his best advantage. He is not reliant on designed openings to get the job done, and if that can't be said about you, you will never succeed in the NFL.
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End of story.
Are there potential barriers to Mendoza's NFL success? In the wrong offense, perhaps. Though the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza does have good in-pocket movement, he's nobody's idea of a mobile quarterback. Not as a runner, and not really as an extemeraneous improviser. On throws outside the pocket this season, Mendoza has completed just 19 of 43 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 78.5.
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Mendoza was barfing up weird incompletions outside the pocket against Old Dominion this season, so imagine what that will look like when it's time to deal with NFL defenses that force you to leave the safety of your home.
And if he lands with an NFL team like the Rams, Seahawks , Bears, Lions, or Colts — teams that run a lot of under-center play-action in their current iterations — that could be an adjustment. Cignetti and his staff have had Mendoza in either pistol or shotgun on 97% of his snaps this season, and in his two seasons (2023, 2024) at Cal, Mendoza never had a QB Gun rate of less than 97% — in 2023, it was 98%.
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If we were to designate an NFL comparison for Mendoza, I would align him with any recent professional quarterback whose lack of second-reaction movement is mitigated by just about every other tool in the toolbox. On the high side, it's possible that Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer could be good comps.
No, Mendoza is not a scheme-transcendent guy, and if you're worried about the prospects for any quarterback in the NFL without that second-reaction movement ( I had serious concerns about Mac Jones coming of Alabama in this regard ), maybe he's not for you. But in the right system, he could be a franchise guy sooner than later. It's going to be about the fit, but he shouldn't need an abnormal number of schematic training wheels and guardrails.
Just an above-average offensive line.
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 14, 2025, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
