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A few thoughts about the Cubs and Shōta Imanaga
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- A few thoughts about the Cubs and Shōta Imanaga
It occurred to me recently that while I'd done an article in this series about most of the Cubs who will be free agents or who have options, I hadn't done one on Shōta Imanaga.
So, here's that article.
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The Cubs had a complicated five-year deal with Imanaga signed before the 2024 season which they opted out of after his mediocre, injury-plagued 2025 season, making him a free agent. Then they made him a qualifying offer. Reports after he accepted it said the Cubs were "blindsided" by that; they didn't think he'd take it. Supposedly this helped prevent the Cubs from (for example) signing free-agent right-hander Dylan Cease.
Cease had a really good year. Granted and stipulated.
Imanaga had… well, a good year. It wasn't as good as his 3.0 bWAR 2024 season, but it was better than his 2025 season. He is who he is: A "crafty" left-hander who doesn't throw really hard, but pounds the zone and doesn't walk hitters (5.2 percent walk rate in 2026, 4.6 for his three-year MLB career). Even without great velocity, he still strikes out a fair number of hitters (24.6 percent in 2026, 23.6 for his career).
The home runs are what makes him frightening every time he takes the mound. He allowed 35 long balls in 2026, far more than he did (27) in 2024 in almost exactly the same number of innings.
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The thing is, Imanaga goes through times of dominance and times of suck.
Look at this:
First nine starts of 2026:2.32 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, five HR in 54.1 innings
Next four starts:10.80 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, 12 (!) HR in 21.2 innings
Next 10 starts:2.06 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, eight HR in 56.2 innings
Next four starts:7.13 ERA, 1.528 WHIP, eight HR in 17.2 innings
Last five starts:2.25 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, two HR in 24 innings
Out of Imanaga's 32 starts, 24 of them were really good. Like, Cy Young contender good. The other eight were just horrific.
How does this happen? How can a guy utterly dominate hitters two-thirds of the time and throw batting practice the other third?
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It's not home vs. road. Imanaga posted a 3.90 ERA in 19 Wrigley starts and allowed 21 HR in 110.2 innings there. On the road: 3.53 ERA, 14 HR in 63.2 innings. He was somewhat better in day games (3.18 ERA, 11 HR in 68 innings) than night games (4.15 ERA, 24 HR in 106.1 innings). Those are more or less equivalent to his career splits .
So here's the thing. If you have a guy like this on your staff and he's the fourth or fifth starter, I think you could live with that. Personally, I think Imanaga (and Seiya Suzuki) help the Cubs' profile in Japan and that's not nothing; for one thing, it might help other NPB free agents choose the Cubs.
Imanaga's original five-year deal was going to be worth $53 million, with incentives that could have brought it to $80 million — a $16 million annual average value. He has made $44.525 million over the three years he's been with the Cubs. I would not be opposed to offering Imanaga a two-year, $36 million deal to return, an AAV of $18 million. That would bring his total Cubs earnings to just over $80 million, which I'd think would satisfy both parties. Imanaga was 100 percent healthy in 2026 and was the only Cubs starter who didn't miss a start.
Bring him back, I say. What say you?
