Story by
Ole Miss vs. Miami beat writers' predictions, keys to Fiesta Bowl
- Story by
- Ole Miss vs. Miami beat writers' predictions, keys to Fiesta Bowl
Ole Miss is emerging out of the shadow of Lane Kiffin with a chance to prove to their former coach wrong — that you can indeed win a national championship in Oxford.
Before the Rebels play for that title, they'll have to get through a revitalized Miami program that knocked off last year's champion Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
Advertisement
Writers from The Clarion Ledger and Palm Beach Post , both part of USA TODAY Co., provided their keys to the game and predictions for Thursday's CFP semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl . The winner advances to the Jan. 19 CFP national championship game in Miami Gardens against the winner of Friday's Peach Bowl between Indiana and Oregon .
Carson Beck : Miami QB finds life after Georgia with Canes in CFP
Trinidad Chambliss : How QB's parents enjoy every moment of son's life-changing season
Why Ole Miss has an advantage vs Miami in Fiesta Bowl
Byrum Brown , Tommy Castellanos and Marcel Reed are good running quarterbacks, but the Hurricanes haven't faced a threat quite like Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense. The transfer from Division II Ferris State ranks fifth in the nation with 3,660 passing yards and is his team's second-leading rusher with 520 yards on the ground. To top it off, he's kept the ball safe, throwing just three interceptions and fumbling only twice (losing one). — Dan Rorabaugh, Palm Beach Post
Why Miami has an advantage vs Ole Miss in Fiesta Bowl
The Rebels have a decent defense, but they're weak against the run, finishing 12th in the SEC in rush defense. That's a few spots behind Texas A&M , against whom Mark Fletcher ran for a career-best 172 yards earlier in the CFP. Ole Miss relies on its offense to simply outscore the other team's offense, as the defense has allowed 30 or more points three times. For contrast, Miami has given up 21 points four times as opposed to seven times for the Rebels. — Dan Rorabaugh, Palm Beach Post
Advertisement
Can Trinidad Chambliss do it again in Fiesta Bowl vs Miami?
The Rebels have advanced through the CFP on the back of their quarterback who started the season as a backup transfer from Division II Ferris State.
Chambliss put together a sparking regular season that earned an eighth-place finish in the Heisman Trophy vote.
In two CFP games, he has thrown for a total of 644 yards, no interceptions and five total touchdowns. He's playing the caliber of football that can win a national championship. — Sam Hutchens, Clarion Ledger
Can Ole Miss keep Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor off Trinidad Chambliss?
Miami has the personnel required to slow Chambliss down. The Hurricanes lead the nation in sacks with 46.
Advertisement
The Hurricanes defense has already flexed its might in the CFP. In two games against Texas A&M and Ohio State, Miami has 12 sacks. The pressure starts with defensive linemen Akheem Mesidor (10.5 sacks) and Rueben Bain (8.5). Both are possible first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
It's critical for Chambliss and Ole Miss to avoid allowing Mesidor or Bain to create game-changing negative plays, whether it be a strip-sack or interception on a rushed pass.
The Miami defense held Ohio State to 10 points in the Cotton Bowl. Heisman Trophy finalist Julian Sayin threw for 287 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. — Sam Hutchens, Clarion Ledger
Who wins rematch: Miami QB Carson Beck or Pete Golding, Ole Miss defense?
The Rebels got the better of Miami quarterback Carson Beck when he played for Georgia last season.
Advertisement
Ole Miss won that game in Oxford 28-10 on Nov. 9, 2024. Beck was held to 186 yards passing and no touchdowns. He was picked off once.
The Ole Miss defense is no longer among the best in the nation like last year, but allows a respectable 194 passing yards per game, which is No. 4 in the SEC.
Beck is not much of a scrambler, so honing in on his connection with wide receiver Malachi Toney will be key. Toney is a freshman with 1,008 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He also has 21 carries and a rushing touchdown. — Sam Hutchens, Clarion Ledger
Fiesta Bowl prediction: Ole Miss vs Miami picks
-
Ole Miss 23, Miami 20:Miami tends to lull teams into low-scoring games, but no team has managed to hold Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense down for four quarters in the CFP. Look for the Rebels to win in a close one. — Sam Hutchens, Clarion Ledger
-
Miami 27, Ole Miss 20:It's a classic strength-on-strength clash between Ole Miss' second-ranked offense (496 yards per game) and Miami's 10th-ranked defense (285 ypg). By scoring, Ole Miss is 10th (37.6 points per game) and Miami is fourth (13 ppg). The Hurricanes' top task is bottling up quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who finished eighth in Heisman voting. Even though they've managed dual-threat QBs just fine this year ( Florida State's Tommy Castellanos put up strong numbers but mostly after UM had already taken a 28-3 lead), Chambliss showed in the Sugar Bowl he can be a threat with just his arm, running for just 14 yards but systematically dismantling Georgia's defense. It will be on Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor and company to deaden the fuse before the Rebels bomb goes off; UGA didn't sack Chambliss once. If the run game can keep its current momentum going and Carson Beck can keep his turnover problems in check (he's thrown just one pick in the past six games), the Hurricanes should be heading back to Miami for one more game this season. — Dan Rorabaugh, Palm Beach Post
When is Fiesta Bowl? What TV channel is Ole Miss vs Miami on?
The Fiesta Bowl is 7:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 8 and the main broadcast will be on ESPN.
Advertisement
Fiesta Bowl odds Miami vs Ole Miss
Odds per BetMGM (as of Jan. 7)
-
Spread:Miami (-3.5)
-
Over/under:52.5
-
Moneyline:Miami (-160)
CFP bracket, schedule
Here's the CFP schedule with the bracket moving into the semifinals:
-
CFP semifinal Fiesta Bowl:No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami, 7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Jan. 8, State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona); ESPN (Fubo)
-
National championship game:No. 1 Indiana/No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 6 Ole Miss/No. 10 Miami, 7:30 p.m. ET, Monday, Jan. 19, Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida); ESPN (Fubo)
When, where is CFP national championship game?
The winner of the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl will meet 7:30 p.m., Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ole Miss vs Miami prediction, keys to Fiesta Bowl, players to watch
