Fiesta Bowl predictions: Who wins Miami vs. Ole Miss in CFP semifinal?

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Fiesta Bowl predictions: Who wins Miami vs. Ole Miss in CFP semifinal?

Fiesta Bowl predictions: Who wins Miami vs. Ole Miss in CFP semifinal?

Erick Smith, Matt Hayes, Jordan Mendoza, Paul Myerberg, Eddie Timanus and Blake Toppmeyer, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Thu, Jan 8, 2026 ·

3 min read

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Editor's note: Keep up with the Fiesta Bowl with our live blog, here .

The Fiesta Bowl is the College Football Playoff semifinal that features two teams that have pulled off the biggest upsets of the postseason.

No. 10 seed Miami first traveled to No. 3 Texas A&M and used an outstanding defense to knock off the Aggies . The Hurricanes followed that with an even bigger surprise by knocking off No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.

No. 6 seed Mississippi opened up its run with an easy defeat of Tulane before getting some revenge against No. 3 Georgia with a dramatic defeat in the Sugar Bowl . All of this run is being done with uncertainty about its coaching staff after Lane Kiffin departed to LSU .

Fiesta Bowl preview: Miami faces Ole Miss in CFP semifinals

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The matchup in the semifinals guarantees one of the these two surprise teams will be moving on to the national title game on Jan. 19. Which one keeps its run going? Our experts make their picks.

Miami vs. Mississippi predictions for CFP semifinals at Fiesta Bowl

Matt Hayes

The Miami line of scrimmage takes over (on both sides of the ball) in the second half, and the offense grinds out a late, game-winning drive to secure a trip home for the national championship game. The Ole Miss run defense, which has struggled at times this season, will be exposed by Miami's physical offensive line. Miami 31, Mississippi 27 .

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Best of bowl season: Mascots, trophies, celebrations, Gatorade baths

Defensive back Tony-Louis Nkuba #21 of the Arizona State Sun Devils celebrates by jumping into an inflatable bowl of Kellogg's Frosted Flakes after intercepting a pass against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half of the Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl game at Sun Bowl Stadium on December 31, 2025 in El Paso, Texas

(Sam Wasson, Getty Images)

Tony the Tiger stands on the field after the coin toss before a football game between Duke and Arizona State in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas, on Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025.
(Gaby Velasquez/ El Paso Times)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) greats the Pop-Tarts mascots before the Pop-Tarts Bowl against the BYU Cougars at Camping World Stadium.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

Pop-Tarts mascots celebrate with BYU Cougars after beating Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

The Cheez-It Citrus Bowl mascots perform on the field before a game between the Michigan Wolverines and Texas Longhorns at Camping World Stadium.
(Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Louisville Cardinals players celebrate after defeating the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl at Flagler CU Stadium.
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Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch holds the LA Bowl championship belt presented by Rob Gronkowski after defeating the Boise State Broncos at SoFi Stadium.
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Comedians Theo Von, left, and Nate Bargatze watch from the sidelines during the first half of the ReliaQuest Bowl between Iowa Hawkeyes and Vanderbilt Commodores at Raymond James Stadium on December 31, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.
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Head coach Jeff Traylor of the UTSA Roadrunners is doused with water by Jamel Hardy #13 during the fourth quarter against the FIU Panthers in the 2025 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on December 26, 2025 in Dallas, Texas.
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Army Black Knights head coach Jeff Monken gets splashed with Powerade after Army beat UConn 41-16 in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl at Fenway Park.
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Interim head coach Drew Svoboda of the North Texas Mean Green is doused after his team defeated the San Diego State Aztecs 49-47 in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium on December 27, 2025 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
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Northwestern Wildcats players dump Gatorade on head coach David Braun of the Northwestern Wildcats after defeating the Central Michigan Chippewas in the 2025 GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field on December 26, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan.
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Head coach John Hauser of the Ohio Bobcats is doused with water after winning the game against the UNLV Rebels at the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl at Ford Center on December 23, 2025 in Frisco, Texas.
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Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott is doused with Gatorade after winning the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium Saturday December 27, 2025 in Jacksonville, Fla. Virginia defeated Missouri 13-7.
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Fresno State Bulldogs head coach Matt Entz is doused with gatorade after defeating the Miami (OH) RedHawks during the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl at Casino Del Sol Stadium.
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Head coach Clay Helton of the Georgia Southern Eagles receives a Powerade dunk after winning the JLab Birmingham Bowl by beating the Appalachian State Mountaineers 29-10 at Protective Stadium on December 29, 2025 in Birmingham, Alabama.
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Interim Head Coach Terry M. Smith of the Penn State Nittany Lions lifts the championship trophy following the game against the Clemson Tigers during the 2025 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on December 27, 2025 in New York City.
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BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) and head coach Kalani Sitake are presented a large pop-tart to eat after they beat the against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Camping World Stadium.
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Ken Seals #9 of the TCU Horned Frogs celebrates with teammates after defeating the USC Trojans in the game at the Alamodome on December 30, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas.
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Head coach Willie Fritz of the Houston Cougars celebrates with the Texas Bowl Trophy after defeating the Louisiana State Tigers during the Kinder's Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium on December 27, 2025 in Houston, Texas.
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Conner Weigman #1 of the Houston Cougars is named Texas Bowl MVP during the Kinder's Texas Bowl against the Louisiana State Tigers at NRG Stadium on December 27, 2025 in Houston, Texas.
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Maverick McIvor #7 of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers reacts as he recieves the MVP trophy after his team defeated the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles to win the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at Caesars Superdome on December 23, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
(Sean Gardner, Getty Images)

Old Dominion Monarchs hoist the Cure Bowl trophy after beating the South Florida Bulls at Camping World Stadium.
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Jacksonville State Gamecocks running back Khristian Lando (22) hoists the trophy as Troy Trojans take on Jacksonville State Gamecocks during the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. on Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. Jacksonville State Gamecocks defeated Troy Trojans 17-13.
(Jake Crandall/ Advertiser)

Interim head coach Drew Svoboda of the North Texas Mean Green raises the championship trophy after his team defeated the San Diego State Aztecs 49-47 in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium on December 27, 2025 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
(Sam Wasson, Getty Images)

Micah Alejado #12 of the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors holds up the Hawai'i Bowl Championship trophy after winning the Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl over the California Golden Bears at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex on December 24, 2025 in Honolulu, Hawai'i.
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NC State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren receives the trophy after beating Memphis Tigers in the Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium.
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Jordan Mendoza

It's been really impressive watching Miami's defense keep offenses from finding any rhythm this postseason. The Rebels will give the Hurricanes another stiff test as Ole Miss has been moving the ball exceptionally this postseason. If one has to give, it will be Ole Miss. The Rebels aren't able to crack the Miami puzzle and Carson Beck leads a late fourth-quarter score to get the Hurricanes back in the national championship game. Miami 27, Mississippi 23 .

Paul Myerberg

Ole Miss should be able to repackage a chunk of its game plan against Georgia to combat Miami's physical defensive line and edge rushers. Whether the Rebels can loosen things up on the ground will be a huge factor. Miami has to play error-free football on offense and rival the Rebels' explosiveness. Mississippi 31, Miami 27 .

Erick Smith

The matchup of the Miami defense - especially its front - and the Mississippi offense will be one of the best in the playoff. Both groups should have their moments. Which brings us to where the game will be won. Can Carson Beck avoid critical mistakes against a Rebels unit that has been up and down? It shapes up to be a tight, low-scoring affair and the advantage of Mississippi having kicker Lucas Carneiro will be decisive. Mississippi 21, Miami 19 .

Eddie Timanus

Having already dispatched Texas A&M and Ohio State, Miami won't lack confidence entering a matchup with Mississippi. But the Rebels have shown incredible resolve amid all the chaos with the coaching staff with Trinidad Chambliss leading the way on offense. They won't let the ride end here and will head to Florida one win away from a first national title. Mississippi 34, Miami 27 .

Blake Toppmeyer

All the intangibles point to Miami having an advantage. Ole Miss is down a couple of assistants who are busy with their new duties at LSU. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is juggling multiple jobs.

And yet we've seen the Rebels overcome hurdles and distraction for months now. Miami's defense is incredibly disruptive. Expect it to put pressure on the Ole Miss offensive line, but I'm beyond doubting Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Miami hasn't faced an offense like the Ole Miss attack. Chambliss' magic act pushed Ole Miss past Georgia, and I think he can do it one more time in the Fiesta Bowl. Mississippi 27, Miami 24 .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fiesta Bowl predictions Miami vs Ole Miss picks in CFP semifinal

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