Five college football hot seats I can't stop thinking about for 2026

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Five college football hot seats I can't stop thinking about for 2026

Five college football hot seats I can't stop thinking about for 2026

Blake Toppmeyer, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Mon, Feb 16, 2026 ·

5 min read

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Any college football coaches left to fire? Oh, yes.

It's quiet now, but give it seven months, and fan bases across the land will be hollering for the brass to, "Fire everybody!"

Last season delivered one of the most active coaching carousels in the sport's history. Buyout beach must have run out of loungers, as schools from LSU to Florida to Penn State forked over failure money .

Way-too-early top 25: A peek at next season's top college football teams

Probably, the coaching carousel won't be quite so active this season. Probably. And, still, several coaches will enter the 2026 season standing on the precipice of buyout utopia.

As we sit in the calm before the next storm of firings, here are five college football hot seats I can't stop thinking about:

Bill Belichick, North Carolina

1 /35

See Bill Belichick's football life in photos

Jan. 19, 2026: TV analyst Bill Belichick watches the Miami Hurricanes play the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half of the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The NFL world is still reeling from the news that former New England Patriots head coach and six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick will not be a first-ballot entrant into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Among those the most surprised is Belichick's former quarterback that led all six of his Super Bowl champion Patriots teams: Tom Brady. "I don't understand it. I mean, I was with him every day. If he's not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, there's really no coach that should ever be a Hall of Famer," said Brady, the five-time Super Bowl MVP and current Fox Sports broadcaster, in an interview with Seattle Sports.

(Kirby Lee, Imagn Images)

Jan. 19, 2026: TV analyst Bill Belichick watches the Miami Hurricanes play the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half of the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The NFL world is still reeling from the news that former New England Patriots head coach and six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick will not be a first-ballot entrant into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Among those the most surprised is Belichick's former quarterback that led all six of his Super Bowl champion Patriots teams: Tom Brady. "I don't understand it. I mean, I was with him every day. If he's not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, there's really no coach that should ever be a Hall of Famer," said Brady, the five-time Super Bowl MVP and current Fox Sports broadcaster, in an interview with Seattle Sports.

(Kirby Lee, Imagn Images)

Oct. 25, 2025: Bill Belichick looks over the North Carolina Tar Heels football team before a game against Virginia at Kenan Stadium. The Tar Heels finished 4-8 in Belichick's first season as head coach.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Feb. 6, 2025: Bill Belichick and girlfriend Jordon Hudson on the red carpet before Super Bowl LIX NFL Honors at Saenger Theatre in New Orleans.
(Kirby Lee, Imagn Images)

Dec. 12, 2024: Bill Belichick is introduced as the new head football coach at the University of North Carolina, and holds up the sweatshirt worn by his father when he was an assistant coach for the Tar Heels.
(Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images)

June 12, 2024: Former Patriots Coach Bill Belichick (L) embraces former New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on stage during the 2024 Patriots Hall of Fame induction ceremony at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Tom Brady is the 35th person to be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame.
(Joseph Prezioso, AFP via Getty Images)

May 5, 2024: (L-R) Tom Brady and Bill Belichick speak onstage during G.R.O.A.T The Greatest Roast Of All Time: Tom Brady for the Netflix is a Joke Festival at The Kia Forum in Inglewood, California.
(Matt Winkelmeyer, Getty Images for Netflix)

Jan. 12, 2024: A pop-up tribute to longtime Patriots coach Bill Belichick along Barnstable Rd in Hyannis, Massachusetts after it was announced Jerod Mayo will be the team's new head coach.
(Steve Heaslip, Cape Cod Times via USA TODAY Network)

Jan. 11, 2024: Head coach Bill Belichick (L) of the New England Patriots shakes hands with owner Robert Kraft (R) during a press conference at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Belichick announced he is stepping down as head coach after 24 seasons and six Super Bowl victories with the team.
(Maddie Meyer, Getty Images)

Jan. 7, 2024: Bill Belichick watches from the sideline as the New England Patriots lose, 17-3, to the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium in the 2023 regular-season finale. The Patriots finished 4-13, the worst record of Belichick's head coaching career. Four days later, Belichick and the Patriots parted ways, ending a 24-season run together.
(David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports)

Nov. 26, 2023: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks on during his team's game against the New Your Giants at MetLife Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)

Aug. 3, 2019: Ty Law poses with his Hall of Fame bust with New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick during the Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinement at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium.
(Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports)

May 4, 2019: Danny Amendola, Linda Holliday, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady attend the 145th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
(Robin Marchant, Getty Images for Churchill Downs)

Feb. 3, 2019: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and his girlfriend Linda Holliday celebrate after the Patriots' win over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It was Belichick's sixth Super Bowl win as Patriots head coach.
(Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)

Jan. 20, 2019: Tom Brady is interviewed by CBS Sports' Jim Nantz after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime in the AFC championship game, 37-31, as head coach Bill Belichick and team owner Robert Kraft look on.
(Jamie Squire, Getty Images)

Feb. 4, 2018: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick walks the sidelines in front of quarterback Tom Brady during the team's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
(Matthew Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)

Jan. 13, 2018: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick reacts in the cold during the AFC divisional playoff game against the Tennessee Titans at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots won the game, 35-14.
(David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports)

Apr. 19, 2017: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, President Donald Trump, Patriots owner Robert Kraft, and Patriots president Jonathan Kraft stand with Patriots players as President Trump holds a helmet at a ceremony honoring the Super Bowl LI champion Patriots on the South Lawn at the White House.
(Geoff Burke, USA TODAY Sports)

Feb. 5, 2017: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick reacts after defeating the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium. The Patriots won, 34-28, in overtime, overcoming a 28-3 deficit as Belichick won his fifth Super Bowl as Patriots head coach.
(Daniel Powers, USA TODAY Sports)

Jan. 24, 2016: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick meets Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) on the field after the AFC championship game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Patriots, 20-18, to earn a trip to Super Bowl 50. Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
(Chris Humphreys, USA TODAY Sports)

April 23, 2015: President Barack Obama poses between New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and team owner Robert Kraft, along with team members, during a ceremony honoring the 2014 Super Bowl champion on the South Lawn at the White House.
(Geoff Burke, USA TODAY Sports)

April 13, 2015: New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, Jonathan Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady walk to the mound during ceremonies for the Boston Red Sox's home opener against the Washington Nationals at Fenway Park.
(David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports)

Feb. 1, 2015: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is dunked with Gatorade after defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
(Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports)

Dec. 14, 2014: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady celebrates with head coach Bill Belichick after clinching the AFC East title with a 41-13 win over the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.
(Winslow Townson, USA TODAY Sports)

Dec. 12, 2010: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks on during the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Patriots defeated the Bears, 36-7.
(Rob Grabowski, US PRESSWIRE)

Feb. 3, 2008: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks on during Super Bowl XLII against the New York Giants at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Giants defeated the Patriots, 17-14. New England had entered the game with a perfect 18-0 record.
(Mark J. Rebilas, US PRESSWIRE)

July 13, 2005: Bill Belichick (left) accepts the award for best Coach/Manager from presenters Garrett Hedlund and Mark Wahlberg onstage at the 13th Annual ESPY Awards at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, California.
(Kevin Winter, Getty Images)

Feb. 1, 2004: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Carolina Panthers, 32-29, in Super Bowl XXXVIII at Reliant Stadium in Houston.
(US PRESSWIRE)

Jan. 18, 2004: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick celebrates with linebacker Willie McGinest after defeating the Indianapolis Colts, 24-14, in the AFC championship game at Gillette Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY)

Feb. 3, 2002: FOX Sports announcer Terry Bradshaw talks with New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft after winning Super Bowl XXXVI, 20-17, against the St. Louis Rams at the Louisiana Superdome.
(US PRESSWIRE)

Jan. 30, 2002: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick directs his team practice in New Orleans, four days before playing the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.
(ROBERTO SCHMIDT, AFP via Getty Images)

Dec. 19, 1998: New York Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick hugs defensive end Anthony Pleasant at the conclusion of the Jets' 17-10 win over the Buffalo Bills that clinched the AFC East division title.
(WAYNE SCARBERRY, AFP via Getty Images)

Feb. 4, 1997: Bill Belichick and Steve Gutman, president of the New York Jets, pose for photographers at the Jets' training facility after Belichick was named the team's new head coach. Belichick's tenure as head coach lasted just six days, as Bill Parcells was elevated to head coach and Belichick would be assistant head coach/defensive coordinator.
(MALCOLM CLARKE, AFP via Getty Images)

Jan. 1, 1995: New England Patriots head coach Bill Parcells talks with Cleveland Browns head coach Bill Belichick prior to the 1994 AFC wild-card playoff game at Cleveland Stadium. The Browns won the game, 20-13.
(US PRESSWIRE)

Dec. 6, 1992: Cleveland Browns head coach Bill Belichick walks the sidelines during his team's game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Stadium. The Browns won the game, 37-21.
(US PRESSWIRE)

Sept. 8, 1991: Cleveland Browns head coach Bill Belichick prior to the game against the New England Patriots at Foxboro Stadium. The Browns defeated the Patriots, 20-0.
(US PRESSWIRE)

What was the first sign this might be a disaster? Was it when Belichick showed up to an offseason interview wearing a ratty Navy sweatshirt? Or, maybe it was Belichick ducking out during North Carolina's open week for a trip to Nantucket with his muse, 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson.

Or, let's just stick to the on-field product. TCU 's 48-14 humiliation of the Tar Heels in Belichick's first game gave a strong hint of how his debut season would go.

North Carolina hired Belichick to a five-year deal, but it left an escape hatch in the contract . He'd be owed about $10 million if fired after this season. That's relatively small potatoes in an otherwise exorbitant buyout landscape.

Belichick signed a large recruiting class that ranked well within the ACC, but UNC had a quieter year in the portal. Should Beli really be playing the long game with freshmen?

Another QB option: UNC, Bill Belichick add record-breaking QB transfer

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Wisconsin should not be 37 points worse than Iowa . Seventeen points worse than Maryland . Ten points worse than Minnesota.

When Wisconsin kept Fickell after a 4-8 record in his third season, the worst year of his tenure, it played the poor card and said it hadn't properly supported Fickell with enough financial resources. Evidently, it thought that sounded better than, "We're keeping him to fire him next season, when his buyout is cheaper."

This whole situation reeks of Fickell being a lame duck.

Nothing about Wisconsin's latest transfer haul or its recruiting class suggests anything resembling momentum. Prep the buyout cannon.

Dave Aranda, Baylor

NIL and pay-for-play are a boon for most schools in Texas , the nation's No. 1 oil-producing state. Texas Tech strolled across an oil slick all the way to a Big 12 championship and a playoff bid. Texas A&M also notched its first playoff appearance. Texas underachieved in 2025, but the Longhorns are built to last . And then there's Baylor .

The Big 12 has room for a third team to rise up and join Texas Tech and BYU to form a power triumvirate. Why shouldn't it be Baylor? Seriously, Baylor's administration must ask that question as it evaluates Aranda's 36-37 record across six seasons. He's made the hot seat his home for a few years. His teams are plagued by bad defenses. Wasn't defense supposed to be Aranda's forte?

Baylor brought in a solid transfer class that includes ex-Florida quarterback DJ Lagway . If Aranda can't get the Bears into Big 12 contention this season, then Baylor must move on and try with someone else.

Shane Beamer, South Carolina

South Carolina possesses one of the SEC's most-talented quarterbacks in LaNorris Sellers . If Beamer can't win with him, that's a problem — a problem that could spark a coaching search, on the heels of last year's 4-8 season.

Beamer has delivered three winning seasons in five years at South Carolina. That makes him better than most predecessors not named Steve Spurrier. Trouble is, Beamer posted his best season in Year 4, followed by his worst year last season. That's a classic case of raising the bar, then failing to meet it, and that's a recipe for a firing.

Beamer is responsible for multiple big wins, but consistency eludes him.

The Gamecocks return ample production, and Beamer brought in Kendal Briles as his offensive coordinator. If this assembly doesn't work, there'll be no excuse that can save Beamer.

Mike Norvell, Florida State

Norvell twice prolonged his tenure by getting a vote of confidence from his boss, first in 2021 and then again from a different boss last season. Coaches generally don't get a third vote of confidence. They get a buyout check.

Norvell's whopper buyout bought him cover the past two seasons. The buyout is still quite large — well over $40 million — but Florida State isn't the type of program that's going to quietly stomach a third straight losing season.

With Clemson down, the Seminoles are wasting a golden opportunity to rise up, backpedaling with Norvell while Miami fills the power vacuum. That's how a Florida State coach gets fired.

Hayes: One solution to FSU's $437 million debt — win. Mike Norvell, you're up

More heat:No hot seat list would be complete without mention of Mike Locksley (Maryland), Bill O'Brien ( Boston College ) and Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee). Other big names at major programs could find themselves on the hot seat if 2026 goes splat. You can probably guess some of those names. We're not quite ready to go there.

Hey, it's only February. The buyout cannon needs a chance to refuel.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football coaches on hot seat, from Bill Belichick to Mike Norvell

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