Five things to watch out for at the F1 United States GP

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Five things to watch out for at the F1 United States GP

Ed Hardy · Motorsport

Wed, Oct 21, 2026 ·

7 min read

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The end of the 2026 Formula 1 season is in sight as the championship now heads to North America for the last of its flyaway races this year.

Austin hosts the United States Grand Prix this weekend at the popular Circuit of the Americas, kick-starting a triple-header that includes Mexico City and Sao Paulo.

As things stand, there are six rounds remaining in the 2026 campaign, meaning world titles are won and lost in this final stretch - one of which may be decided in Texas.

So here are five things to watch out for at the United States GP.

Antonelli's crowning moment?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Mercedes was always expected to master the regulation switch thanks to decades of it producing world-class power units, a key part of the 2026 ruleset. It led to the Silver Arrows being the bookies' favourite for both titles from early on, though based on 2025, many assumed George Russell would take the drivers' crown.

The 28-year-old produced arguably the best campaign of his then seven-season-long F1 career by maximising the W16 to finish fourth in the standings and 169 points above rookie team-mate Kimi Antonelli. Surely, after such an up-and-down rookie season, Antonelli wouldn't be world champion material in only year two.

Yet he has been: the 20-year-old holds a 102-point advantage over second-placed Russell. It's been mighty impressive how consistent Antonelli has been with 14 podiums, eight victories and six poles. Only in Baku was the Italian not quick enough for a top-three finish, with his other non-podium results happening due to a car issue.

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It all means that Antonelli can clinch his maiden title in Austin this weekend, the first opportunity for him to do so. It may be unlikely - needing to outscore Russell by 23 points - but it still underlines his dominance.

Mercedes, on the other hand, is not yet able to seal the constructors' title, as it would need to leave Austin with a 215-point gap over second-placed Ferrari . Considering the advantage currently stands at 134, Mexico is the earliest opportunity for the German marque to take its first championship since 2021.

But is Mercedes favourite for victory?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Realistically, the only way Antonelli can become world champion this weekend is if he wins the United States Grand Prix and Russell finishes ninth . If it were earlier in 2026, when Mercedes won the opening six rounds from pole, then the former would appear very likely - but not now, all thanks to Red Bull.

The Austrian outfit started the campaign slowly with two podiums in the first six, yet responded to that with relentless upgrades and perhaps the most decisive of those came in Baku last month.

That weekend Max Verstappen finished second, closely behind Russell, before going to Sepang, a track with completely different characteristics, to take his first win of 2026. The four-time world champion then followed that up with a victory in both the Singapore sprint and grand prix last time out.

So not only has Verstappen won the last three races from pole, but he has also finished on the podium in seven of the last eight grands prix, staging a late resurgence reminiscent of last year. It has led to many within the paddock to label the RB22 as the 'class of the field' and with it now performing at more than one type of circuit, Red Bull arguably heads into Austin as favourite for victory.

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If Verstappen wins, it would be his fifth United States GP victory - all coming across the last six editions.

McLaren attempts to stop downward trajectory with Austin upgrades

Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Lando Norris, McLaren

One team suffering from Red Bull's resurgence is certainly McLaren which, in the space of a couple of months, has gone from Mercedes' nearest challenger to being the fourth-best squad. The Woking outfit won back-to-back in Budapest and Zandvoort via Lando Norris , who would have made it three victories in four at Madrid had it not been for an untimely VSC.

But since then it has regressed, failing to score a podium in the three races since - the Azerbaijan-Malaysia-Singapore triple header - and now faces a fight to hold onto third with just a seven-point advantage over Red Bull.

That is despite the reigning champions bringing an upgraded MCL40 to Malaysia and, although the updates seemingly worked as intended, McLaren was simply out-developed by its rivals. That may change this weekend as the British marque is bringing another set of upgrades to Austin, largely focused on the front of the car.

"We're bringing a modest selection of upgrades for this event, aimed at improving some braking reliability and performance issues," said chief designer Rob Marshall.

"We also have some small floor changes to test. We have all seen how difficult it is to predict the relative performance of the top teams over the last five or six races. Obviously, there are many factors in play here: cars being upgraded, cars suiting and drivers liking certain circuits, among other factors.

"The last few races have not been great for us, but I think we're getting stronger again and Austin is probably a better circuit for our car."

The clash between Norris and team-mate Oscar Piastri in the Singapore sprint may also come up again this weekend, though McLaren appears to have drawn a line under the incident.

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Driver market news for 2027

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls

There has been more driver news since the Singapore Grand Prix, as Haas confirmed it will give Formula 2 points leader Rafael Camara his F1 debut in 2027 . The 21-year-old Brazilian is replacing Esteban Ocon and will likely line up alongside incumbent Oliver Bearman , once a few contractual details have been ironed out.

It completes a rapid rise for Camara, who won F3 in 2025 and FRECA the year before, and means that outside of Haas, in theory, the only seats left to be confirmed for 2027 are at Racing Bulls .

Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad currently compete for the Faenza outfit and have both contributed to Racing Bulls leading the midfield, sitting fifth on 100 points. While it is all but guaranteed that rookie Lindblad, who is 11th with 38 points, will return for next season, question marks linger around ninth-placed Lawson.

Not that they should: the 24-year-old Kiwi is in the form of his life with points in every race bar five. But, as is the case with Red Bull, there is another young driver on its conveyor belt, and that is Camara's F2 title rival Nikola Tsolov.

The Austrian company has a decision to make: whether to keep Lawson or give Tsolov a chance. It's just a case of where does Lawson go from here? A return to Red Bull, where he started 2025, is unlikely considering Isack Hadjar 's form, whereas staying at Racing Bulls long-term is not really a viable option for any party.

So expect those questions this weekend. But as things stand, Lawson is expected to stay for 2027 with 2028 perhaps being the year he needs to find a new team.

How many track limit breaches this year?

Pierre Gasly, Alpine, Franco Colapinto, Alpine

"I'm going to put a pillow from the hotel under his butt, so he can actually see the road," were the words of Mercedes boss Toto Wolff at the Singapore GP. It was in response to Antonelli breaching track limits on four occasions which, in theory, is the threshold for a five-second penalty. But the Italian escaped it, given brake issues caused one of them.

Nevertheless, track limits is something Antonelli has often struggled with and, much to his dismay, no doubt they will be a huge topic this weekend. They always are around COTA due to its extremely long run-off areas and high-speed bends, with 32 laps being deleted in last year's race.

That is more than most on the calendar, so it will no doubt be another talking point this weekend - particularly so in qualifying, where drivers are pushing the limits more than in any other session.

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