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Fulham have an ‘xG problem’ but is there a way to solve it?
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- Fulham have an ‘xG problem’ but is there a way to solve it?
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Tom Masters explains Fulham's expected goals problem.
Fulham's season has gone from one of despair and impending relegation to one of hope after Álvaro Arbeloa managed to turn things around at Craven Cottage.
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The Cottagers lost each of their first three matches and four of their first six and were dead last in the Premier League table, with just two points after six matches.
But since then, things have turned around, and Fulham are now only three points away from the top half of the table.
It has been an incredibly quick recovery and, as the Cottagers cast their eyes towards Newcastle next weekend in their final clash before the November international break, Fulham fans are genuinely optimistic that this could end up being a brilliant and enjoyable season.
But one thing all Cottagers fans, players, coaches and Arbeloa himself would say is that Fulham need to score more goals.
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Having scored nine in nine and only five in their last six, Fulham are struggling to put the ball in the back of the net.
But this is not for lack of trying.
If you look at the expected goals (xG) table, Fulham are eighth.
And if you specifically look at the xG, Fulham are the third-biggest underperformers in terms of their expected goals compared to their actual goals.
Only Nottingham Forest (-8.6) and Sunderland (-6.2) are worse underperformers in front of goal this season than Fulham (-4.7).
So it is clear that for Fulham to really reach their maximum potential and march up the table, they are going to need to address this issue.
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But how exactly are they supposed to do this?
Well, of course, there is an element of luck involved, and Fulham have been a tad unlucky at times this season.
Against Aston Villa, perhaps that luck changed when Zion Suzuki dropped the ball into the back of his net.
But aside from luck, what Fulham really need is for Gonzalo Garcia to click.
He has just one goal from 3.98xG and has also missed seven big chances.
That, again, is not for lack of trying, with Garcia averaging 2.6 shots per match.
But there has been a mixture of poor finishing and bad luck that has seen him fail to be more prolific than was expected.
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Alex Iwobi has created six big chances and made 2.2 key passes per match, with his 2.76 expected assists so far resulting in zero actual assists.
Those are the headline numbers when you are looking at Fulham's xG.
Plenty is being created: a player has taken on the mantle in terms of creating, and a striker is badly underperforming his numbers.
So really, Fulham have two choices: keep at it, or change their centre forward.
It seems unlikely Arbeloa will opt for Rodrigo Muniz and so Fulham will have to hope that Newcastle is the game for Garcia.
Perhaps it will be like London buses for the Spaniard and when one comes, three come.
Only time will tell.
