After a detestable start to the season, logic-defying climb to .500, command of the AL Central after the All-Star Break, September swoon, desperate attempt to claw back to first place, dominant start to the playoffs and utter collapse in front of a rabid and hungry home crowd, the White Sox head to Cleveland for only the second winner-take-all postseason game in their history and a chance at the first win in such a game.
No biggie, White Sox, just 126 years of history on your backs.
But, thanks to the strange twist at the end of Cleveland's Game 4 rout, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt opted to use Cade Smith unnecessarily for a second straight two-inning stint (OK, the eighth inning of Game 3 made some sense), burning his closer for two innings again. The decision came back to bite him, and now not only has Vogt exposed Smith's stuff to the White Sox needlessly (for the record, I don't buy into a "book" hitters write on elite high-leverage arms like Smith and Grant Taylor, certainly not when the bigger factor is overworked pitchers getting tired and losing sharpness, something Taylor seemed to directly acknowledge after Game 4), but he forced Game 5 starter Gavin Williams in "close out" a 9-3 win.
Remember when Cleveland had such an "advantage" heading into the end of the series, with starters Parker Messick and Williams on full rest to finish things up? Well, throw that advantage out now, as a full inning of pitches on Wednesday certainly will affect Williams today — if not in efficiency, in durability. What could have been a six-innings target for the K machine is a more realistic four-five inning "open" now.
Therefore it's advantage, White Sox, as Sean Burke (a better starter in the regular season than Williams, to begin with) starts Game 5 on full rest and coming off of the best outing of five-plus innings anyone's had in this series.
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Burke set a White Sox postseason record with 13 straight batters retired in Chicago's Game 2 win in Cleveland, going 5 ⅓ innings total and allowing just one run on one hit. If that is the Burke we get on Saturday, the Guardians are in trouble.
Not sure it Miguel Vargas murdering Williams offsets Steven Kwan having great numbers against Burke, but perhaps Andrew Benintendi owning Williams as well flips some of the key matchups in our favor?
As you well know, though, advantages are all relative in 2026 between the White Sox and Guardians. Through 17 games, the White Sox still lead the season series, 9-8, but with the "blowouts" in Chicago the Guardians now have outscored Chicago in 2026 by all of five runs. Thirteen of 17 games in 2026 between the two clubs were decided by three runs or fewer, eight were one-run games and four ended on walk-offs. The White Sox were in first place for 96 days in 2026, Cleveland 89. And of course, the two teams finished one game apart in the standings after Cleveland's hot finish to the season.
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With Williams pitching, the White Sox will utilize their (stronger) lefty-heavy lineup, taking away any temptation to play Tommy Pham for significant innings and rendering him a pinch-hitting bat off the bench. However, in a twist, Braden Montgomery is benched for Game 5 despite facing a right-handed pitcher.
Cleveland, licking its chops at getting a righty starter in Burke, hopes to prove tonight how wise it was for Venable to dance with four consecutive lefty openers in the series — or, if the Guards fall back to the punchless offense they were in Games 1 and 2, expose such paranoid thinking as a ruse.
As to the pressure of the game, it's hard to determine whose backs are more against the wall. Given that only three teams have ever rallied back to win after losing two straight home games to open the series, you'd think the pressure is weighing heavily on the White Sox. But here's where their frat-boy dopeyness could help: If Colson Montgomery didn't realize he was on the precipice of an infamous season strikeout record or that such a record even existed , do we think the clubhouse cares a whit about "pressure" to win in Game 5?
This idea was addressed, as much of this game thread was, in our pregame podcast, if you care to have a soothing voice calm your nerves as we near game time:
So friends, here we are, with a third chance to close out the Guardians. Let's make it stick tonight.
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