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Harvard vs Dartmouth Prediction, Odds, NCAAF Picks — 10/30
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- Harvard vs Dartmouth Prediction, Odds, NCAAF Picks — 10/30
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: A Harvard Crimson fan.
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The Harvard Crimson take on the Dartmouth Big Green in Hanover, New Hampshire, on Friday, Oct. 30. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
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Harvard is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -392. Dartmouth, meanwhile, enters as a +10 underdog and is +290 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 42.5 total points.
Here's my Harvard vs. Dartmouth predictionand college football pick for Friday, October 30.
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Harvard vs Dartmouth Pick: Harvard -10 (-118)
My Dartmouth vs. Harvard best bet is on Harvard to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Harvard vs Dartmouth Odds, Spread, Lines
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Harvard vs Dartmouth point spread: Harvard -9.5, Dartmouth +9.5
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Harvard vs Dartmouth over/under: 44.5 Points
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Harvard vs Dartmouth moneyline: Harvard -350, Dartmouth +265
The Harvard Crimson are coming off back-to-back convincing wins over Holy Cross and Princeton, and the defense has been the major catalyst for the success of this team.
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Only Cornell has scored more than 17 points against Harvard all season, as the Crimson have benefited from 11 interceptions by the defense and timely fourth-down stops to put the clamps on the opposition.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Charlie Smith looks more and more comfortable each week.
With Yale fading and a win over Princeton already under its belt, Harvard can effectively lay claim to a two-game lead over every team in the Ivy League with a win over Dartmouth on Friday night in what's shaping up to be a crucial game.
The quarterback play has been impressive, as Smith has taken over and played well following the departure of Jaden Craig to TCU this offseason. Smith has completed 72% of his passes for 1,453 yards and 12 touchdowns .
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After throwing an interception in each of his first four games, Smith has now gone back-to-back games without a pick. This Dartmouth secondary is one of the strongest in the Ivy League, so Smith will need to be at his best on the road in this game.
The Harvard ground game has been serviceable this season but not eye-popping. Xaviah Bascon has taken the bulk of the carries since Cole Allen went down with an injury early in the season. Bascon leads the team with 233 rushing yards while averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Nathan Bailey is the leading receiver with 47 catches for 428 yards, and the Crimson also find ways to get him the ball on the ground 2-3 times per game as well.
The Crimson offensive line hasn't been as dominant this season, allowing 31 tackles for loss and nine sacks. Overall, the Harvard offense isn't nearly as explosive as prior versions.
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The defense has been very good this season, particularly up front.
The defensive line has created pressure and registered 13 sacks and countless other quarterback pressures. Errant throws have also resulted, and Harvard has notched 11 intercepted passes through six games.
The defense is allowing just 283 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, and opponents are scoring touchdowns in the red zone just 50% of the time against this defense.
Dartmouth opened this season with two tough losses against very good FCS teams in Lehigh and Monmouth, and the Big Green were in an impossible spot traveling to Yale a couple of weeks ago in what amounted to a major play-up spot for the Bulldogs.
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A pair of wins against Merrimack and Columbia have given this Dartmouth team some swagger back, and at 3-3 overall and 2-1 in Ivy League play, the Big Green control their destiny to win the Ivy League.
They must defeat Harvard in this game and then beat Princeton and Cornell on the road in the coming weeks, quite the task for a team that's not nearly as talented on either side of the ball as we have seen over the last couple of seasons.
The Big Green were counting on quarterback Grayson Saunier to take a step forward this season as a passer, and up to this point, he hasn't. Saunier has thrown for 951 yards with five passing touchdowns, but he's completing just 54% of his throws.
The three major receiving weapons are Ky'Dric Fisher, James Elliott and Nick Lemon, who have a combined 70% of the receiving yards and five touchdown receptions between the trio.
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Dartmouth runs its quarterback a decent amount, and Saunier does have five rushing touchdowns this season.
Myles Craddock is the featured back with 503 yards and four rushing scores while averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the ground.
The offensive line has played decent football, although the ground attack isn't as dominant, and eight sacks have been surrendered. This offense will face its toughest assignment yet, lining up against the Harvard defense.
The Dartmouth defense has done well to limit explosive plays, and the Big Green have done well in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 56% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line.
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This defense runs into problems when third-down performance suffers, and it has at times this year. Dartmouth is allowing 48% of third downs to be converted successfully, but a +6 turnover margin has helped keep opponents from putting up more points.
This line opened with Harvard being listed as a 10-point favorite with a total set at 42.5. I'm willing to lay 10 with the Crimson here.
Harvard is peaking at the right time and has scored 30 or more points in three straight games.
The Crimson built a 41-10 lead at Cornell before some garbage-time points and yards were allowed, and back-to-back convincing wins over Holy Cross and Princeton have been ultra-impressive.
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I really like what I've seen with the development of Smith at quarterback, and he has full command of this passing offense.
Dartmouth is allowing a completion rate of 67% and 6.7 yards per attempt this season. The coverage unit could struggle to stop Harvard from moving the ball through the air.
Dartmouth has thrown only three red-zone touchdowns this season, as the Big Green really prefer running the ball inside the 20-yard line. Without a true goal-line receiving threat, they'll have to get creative offensively in goal-to-go situations.
Dartmouth isn't efficient enough offensively, and Harvard has been the best and most consistent team in the Ivy League this season.
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I'm guessing this game will be close for three quarters, but Harvard should pull away and win this game by 14 points, while once again scoring 30-plus points in the process.
Pick: Harvard -10 (-118)
