Heading into this season, much of the discussion revolved around the MVP race: Would it once again come down to Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander , or could a new name finally emerge? When it came to the Defensive Player of the Year award, however, there was almost no debate as Victor Wembanyama looked like a lock to take home the honor.
Fast forward nearly 35 games into the season, and the French phenom is now on the verge of missing out on the award for a second consecutive year, despite clearly being the most dominant defender in the league. Wembanyama has already missed 14 games and is questionable for the next one, a strong indication that reaching the 65-game minimum required for award eligibility will be extremely difficult.
Oddsmakers have since shifted their focus to Chet Holmgren , who would be a deserving winner given everything he contributes to the Oklahoma City Thunder . Still, on an individual level, Holmgren's defensive impact does not quite match Wembanyama's.
ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton addressed this dynamic in his latest piece, explaining just how significant this year's DPOY race could be moving forward.
"Advanced metrics predictably have Wembanyama as the most impactful defender in the NBA on a per-possession basis," Pelton wrote . "There's not much consensus on No. 2, with several members of the Thunder splitting credit for their top-ranked defense. Holmgren is the safest choice, which explains why he actually has the lowest odds at DraftKings factoring in the likelihood for Wembanyama failing to qualify. But things are wide-open enough that any number of other candidates could emerge between now and April."
With a defensive rating of 101.7, Holmgren currently ranks fifth in the entire league in that category, a reflection of Oklahoma 's elite team defense, as the three players ahead of him are also members of the Thunder. Wembanyama, meanwhile, ranks ninth among players with at least 20 appearances this season, posting a defensive rating of 103.9, according to NBA.com .
Where Wembanyama truly separates himself is on the glass. The San Antonio Spurs center is the undisputed leader in defensive rebounding percentage , grabbing an incredible 29.3 percent of all available defensive rebounds. Holmgren, by comparison, ranks 23rd at 21.5 percent.
The 7-foot-4 Spurs star also leads the entire league in opponent lowest-field-goal percentage allowed among players with at least 200 minutes played, holding opponents to just 41.7 percent shooting . On top of that, his 2.9 blocks per game rank first in the league.
Chet, to his credit, is not far behind. He sits inside the top 10, limiting opponents to 43.7 percent shooting, and ranks sixth in the league with 1.8 blocks per game. Still, due to OKC's team success and Wembanyama's likely inability to meet the 65-game threshold, Holmgren has emerged as the clear favorite, a development that could have major financial implications for his future.
"Incidentally, winning Defensive Player of the Year would make Holmgren eligible for up to 30 percent of the cap on his rookie extension," Pelton explained. "However, the deal Holmgren signed last July does not include an escalator, so he is locked in at 25 percent of the cap."
In other words, when one player's season darkens, another's brightens. Holmgren's on-court success could still translate into significant financial rewards down the line, while Wembanyama remains unaffected for now, as he is still on his rookie contract and won't negotiate a new deal until the 2026–27 season.
From a legacy standpoint, however, this could prove costly for Wembanyama. Widely viewed as a player with the potential to become one of the greatest defenders of all time, Vic may once again be denied a DPOY award he appears to fully deserve.
Related: Victor Wembanyama dismisses any rivalry with Chet Holmgren: "No comparison between us"
This story was originally published by Basketball Network on Jan 7, 2026, where it first appeared in the Latest News section. Add Basketball Network as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
