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Hurricane Marie Sets Up Wild Weekend of Surf For Southern California
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- Hurricane Marie Sets Up Wild Weekend of Surf For Southern California
Hurricane Marie Sets Up Wild Weekend of Surf For Southern California
The good news: Hurricane Marie won't hit California. The better news: The swell generated from the storm will. The latest forecasts have Marie tracking west-northwest well offshore, with the storm's core expected to remain hundreds of miles south and southwest of Southern California. But its broad wind field is aimed directly at the California coast, setting up a solid south swell for Labor Day weekend.
The National Weather Service is currently calling for 6- to 8-foot surf on exposed south-facing beaches across Southern California, with 12- to 14-second periods. Down in San Diego and Orange County, the forecast is even more aggressive, with the National Weather Service warning of 6- to 10-foot breaking waves on south- and southwest-facing beaches, and 4- to 6-foot surf on more west-facing beaches. Obviously, spots with better exposure could see larger sets.
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Where Will Hurricane Marie Hit?
The key to this swell is the direction. Marie is sending energy from the south and southeast, meaning the beaches that actually face that direction will do the heavy lifting. That puts San Diego's south-facing beaches, south Orange County, San Onofre and the San Clemente zone squarely in the crosshairs, as well as Newport Beach, including the Wedge and Newport Point. Expect the swell to fill in through Saturday, with more size and consistency Sunday into Monday.
South-facing reefs, points and beachbreaks will have the best chance of turning the swell's relatively long-period energy into organized waves. The usual summertime shadow zones will be a different story. Santa Barbara's South Coast, for example, is largely protected from the main pulse by the Channel Islands. Some southeast and southwest energy will sneak through, potentially producing short-lived boosts, but Santa Barbara won't see anything close to the size of more exposed beaches to the south.
That doesn't mean the north end of the coast is completely out of the game. Ventura and the beaches around the Channel Islands' openings could see some interesting waves, while Malibu is one of the more obvious standout zones. Some Malibu spots could run larger than the general regional forecast.
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Related: Could a Hurricane Hit Southern California Over Labor Day Weekend?
Southern California Surf Forecast
Friday, September 4
Marie is still mostly a story on the horizon. Southern California will have a mix of lingering tropical energy, Southern Hemisphere swell and local wind swell. Conditions should be best early, with lighter winds before the afternoon sea breeze develops.
Saturday, September 5
The Marie swell starts showing and builds through the day. The morning should offer the cleanest conditions, with winds generally light before the typical afternoon onshore flow develops. By afternoon and evening, the SSE swell should become increasingly obvious, particularly at south-facing beaches.
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Sunday, September 6
By the morning dawn patrol, the south swell should be well established, with exposed south-facing beaches running roughly 6 to 8 feet, and bigger sets possible at the best exposures. The combination of longer-period energy and favorable swell direction could produce significantly larger sets at the most exposed breaks.
Monday, September 7
Expect another solid day, with the swell slowly easing but still plenty of size in the water. The combination of Marie swell and unusually high evening tides could make conditions particularly challenging around low-lying coastal areas.
Related: How To Surf the Wedge and Not Die
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What About the Wind?
Southern California isn't going to get hurricane-force winds from Marie, but the region will be dealing with the usual California wind cycle layered on top of the tropical swell.
Saturday should start relatively clean before afternoon west to southwest winds develop. In San Diego, the early morning is expected to see light or variable winds before light-plus westerly flow develops in the afternoon. That makes the early mornings the obvious window.
Sunday could be more complicated, particularly as tropical moisture moves into the region. Local winds aren't expected to be anything remotely resembling hurricane conditions, but the combination of rising swell, afternoon onshore flow and potentially cloudy or damp weather could make conditions less than pristine.
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And Then There's the Weather
Marie is also going to bring Southern California something isn't generally associated with Labor Day weekend: rain. The National Weather Service expects tropical moisture to begin pushing into the region Saturday night, with Sunday offering the best chance of precipitation. Los Angeles County has a 40-50% chance of rain, Ventura County 25-50%, Santa Barbara County 10-30% and San Luis Obispo County 10-20%.
Rainfall should generally be light, from a trace to around a quarter-inch, although isolated totals approaching a half-inch are possible. There's also a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms, focused primarily over Los Angeles County, on Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures should remain relatively comfortable, but humidity will climb, making the weekend feel considerably more tropical than your average September beach day.
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And there's one more factor surfers should pay attention to: the tides. Evening high tides will climb through the weekend, reaching more than seven feet in parts of Southern California by Monday. The combination of a large south swell and high astronomical tides could produce coastal flooding in vulnerable south-facing areas. Down in San Diego, the predicted La Jolla evening high tide rises from 6.0 feet Saturday to 6.3 Sunday and 6.7 Monday.
Related: Bodysurfer Dies at Laguna Beach's Crescent Bay
How Does This Compare to Hurricane Marie in 2014?
There's an obvious bit of déjà vu here. The last Hurricane Marie to send a swell toward Southern California was the 2014 storm, and that one went down in surf history. Marie reached Category 5 intensity, with 160-mph winds, while positioned almost perfectly in Southern California's swell window. The resulting south swell was extraordinary. Surfline documented 15- to 20-foot faces at Newport Point and 25- to 30-foot surf at the Wedge, making it one of the biggest and most consistent southerly swells Southern California had seen in decades.
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This year's Marie is a very different animal. While it can still produce a significant Labor Day swell, there's no realistic comparison in terms of size or intensity to the 2014 event. The current storm is expected to remain much farther offshore and isn't forecast to reach the same intensity or spend as much time generating swell in the ideal position.
The original Marie became a once-in-a-generation Southern California surf event. This Marie looks more like a really good late-summer south swell with a tropical-weather subplot, and, for most surfers, that's plenty.
This story was originally published by Surfer on Sep 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the News section. Add Surfer as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
