The Bears can be fairly certain they'll face quarterback Michael Penix Jr. this week even after his rib injury because he went through a full practice on Wednesday and Atlanta is talking him up as a starter.
Of course, this isn't the real danger they face against Atlanta's offense. Their pass defense will get challenged by an assortment of dangerous weapons but the real threat comes from running back Bijan Robinson, and they haven't had a strong history of shutting down top runners under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
A teammate for two years of Robinson's, Bears defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has a pretty good idea what his teammates need to hear about trying to stop the former Texas standout.
"That it's going to take everybody doing what we need to do in attacking the line of scrimmage, not playing passively, not playing selfishly," Jarrett said. "It takes a whole unit to attempt to slow down a special player like Bijan
"God-given ability to see, to burst, to separate, to contact balance, I mean this is a really, really special player, special person, and he knows he's the bloodline of that organization. So we've got a heck of a challenge ahead of us."
Robinson leads the NFL with 580 rushing yards this year after he had successive 1,400-yard seasons. The 5-foot-11, 215-pound back averages 5.0 yards a carry while the Bears give up 4.4 a carry to rank 22nd in the league. Robinson ran for 194 yards against the Packers in Atlanta's 35-14 rout of Green Bay on Sept. 24.
Robinson also is a threat as a receiver. He had an eight-catch, 90-yard opener against Pittsburgh.
The Bears haven't completely shut down good runners since Allen became their defensive coordinator, but they have managed to avoid getting completely trampled except in a few instances.
Christian McCaffrey hit them for 23 runs and 140 yards last year, and Ashton Jeanty had 138 yards on 21 carries. Jahmyr Gibbs piled up 174 yards on 31 carries over two consistent efforts against them for Detroit.
This year, they gave up 105 yards to 31-year-old Aaron Jones in the opener but no one else has approached triple figures against them.
The problem is they're coming off their worst overall defensive game of the season and got exposed downfield in the secondary by Green Bay and Jordan Love.
"We've got a big challenge coming up in terms of the running game," coach Ben Johnson said. "This is an elite running game in the NFL led by a guy that might be leading the charge for MVP right now. That's first and foremost. Then, of course, we've got to clean up some of the issues that we put on tape last week with the explosive plays.
"It's not going to be a talent-level issue or anything like that. We've got plenty of guys, and now we've just got to play together as one unit, and all 11 on the same page, and we'll take it from there."
Then again, the talent normally assigned with being most stout on the edge to turn back running games will not be available. One of Atlanta's great strengths is running the wide zone blocking scheme like the Bears utilize on offense, so run-stopping defensive ends are critical in this game.
Montez Sweat's all-around ability has been his strength since arriving in 2023, but he's suspended for a PED violation. Dayo Odeyingbo was brought to Chicago as a stout run stopper, not necessarily a standout pass rusher. And he has a quad injury labeled week to week, which usually means missing at least one game, if not more. Edge Austin Booker is regarded as a strong pass rusher but his run-stopping ability has been called inconsistent against coaches.
They'll get Shemar Turner back this week but he has barely played for the Bears. He played only 33 snaps on the outside and 39 in the B-gap or over tackle last year before tearing his ACL. They can't really anticipate what they'd get from someone who is essentially a rookie with about the equivalent of one game of experience.
Edge Daniel Hardy is a pass rusher and special teams player. The only defensive end they'll have available this week with a proven track record as a run stopper is James Lynch. His reputation as a solid run defender goes back four seasons with the Titans, Vikings and now the Bears. Pro Football Focus grades him 34th out of 106 edge players against the run this season, but he's been on the field for only 95 defensive plays, 54 of them runs.
Lynch wasn't even active against the Jets, but one of the most obscure facts about this Bears defense is Lynch actually started three of their five games. They kept Booker on the bench to start every game. Booker's play count will now need to be what starters normally would get and he expects the defense will benefit.
"I think that just when you see the snap count go up you see the production go up," he said. "And I think that's all there is to it."
They have to hope he's right because it's not going to be easy stopping the NFL rushing leader and a pass rush isn't much good when the back is running around end for 100 yards or more.
Allen's defense has often been accused of overemphasizing run defense on the edge in the past and sacrificing pass rush. It's why he wants at least one edge over 280 pounds and preferably two.
Ironically, now they're facing an opponent where this is really essential. And they lack the depth of manpower to pull it off because of Sweat's suspension and Odeyingbo's injury.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/nfl/bears/onsi as An Inconvenient Bears Truth Over Losing Dayo Odeyingbo and Montez Sweat .
