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A.J. Brown, Jalen Coker headline Week 8's Regression Files
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- A.J. Brown, Jalen Coker headline Week 8's Regression Files
Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher's opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don't always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It's not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
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Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson , we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.
In this space I'm going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.
NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Moves to Make Before Week 8 Fantasy Football: Buy Chris Olave, sell Ashton Jeanty
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Chris Olave and A.J. Brown are fantasy football buy-low trade targets.
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Total Team Air Yards
Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through seven weeks of the regular season, sorted by total air yards per game.
Green Bay Packers
Don't worry too much about our reigning air yards kings of Wisconsin. The Packers in Week 7 against the pass-funnel Lions led the league with 438 team air yards, nearly 200 more than the tenth-place team on the week.
Matthew Goldenhad a league-leading 160 air yards against the Lions while Christian Watsonfinished with 88 air yards, the 17th most on the week. They both just ran cold. So it goes. Golden, by the bye, leads the NFL in air yards (941) and it's not particularly close.
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With Josh Jacobsback in the fold, the Packers did the right thing and kept flinging it. They were 6.5 percent over their expected pass rate and ranked fourth in neutral early-down pass rate. Shoutout Matt LaFleur for not being a total coward!
New York Giants
The G-people since Week 4 lead the NFL with an utterly ridiculous 418 total air yards per game. This — as you know if you roster Giants players — has changed the entire composition of the New York offense and injected never-ending life into Malik Nabers.
In Week 7 against the pass-funnel Texans defense, JJ McCarthyand the Giants went ultra-run-heavy (9 percent below their expected pass rate) and still piled up 318 total air yards, the sixth most of the week. That's what happens when your QB has an average depth of target of nearly 9 yards, as McCarthy did against Houston. That, I think, should continue when the Giants return from their Week 8 bye.
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LA Rams
With Davante Adamsdone for the year, it looks like Sean McVay is ready and willing to go all-in on the three tight end thing. The Rams in Week 7 against the Raiders had three tight ends on the field for more than 70 percent of their plays. Davis Allenwas the lucky one with two touchdown grabs on just 12 routes.
LA was 2.2 percent below its expected pass rate against the Raiders. It was their run-heaviest game since the Week 1 Australia nightmare. The Rams weren't entirely run-obsessed though: Only six teams had a higher neutral early-down pass rate in Week 7.
As for the air yards: The Rams posted 206 total team air yards against Vegas, the seventh fewest of any team in the league in Week 7. That pales in comparison to the 403 team air yards they averaged from Week 2 — following the Australia nightmare — to Week 6, when they lost Adams to the worst hamstring injury anyone has ever seen. Puka Nacuawill continue to get there every week no matter what. Guessing which of the three Rams tight ends will get there threatens to drive the entire fantasy football industry insane.
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Washington Commanders
Here's what I wrote last week about the post-McLaurin Commanders offense and who should benefit from all the vacated targets and air yards in the coming weeks.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cards are finally looking like the Cards we know from 2025, the ones who blessed us every week with 2.6 million air yards, the Cards who showered us with fraudulent garbage time production the way Kirk Cousins has in Vegas this season.
Over the past month the Cardinals have averaged 339 total air yards per game, the seventh most in the NFL. In Week 7 they were second only to the Packers in total air yards, with the tenth-highest pass rate over expected.
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Sadly for Michael Wilsondrafters, it was Jalen Brookswho accounted for a team-leading 119 air yards (33 percent) while Trey McBridehad 98 air yards. Wilson was left with scraps: 86 air yards while being targeted on a somewhat concerning 16 percent of his pass routes.
Now for your weekly dose of cold comfort: Wilson ranks ninth among all receivers in air yards since Week 4. He's only converted 40 percent of those air yards into real yards, down from 46 percent over the season's first few games. The problem is Jacoby Brissett's shocking inaccuracy on long balls. Brissett on the season has completed five of his 26 throws of more than 20 yards; he's 22 percent below his expected completion rate on those attempts. He ranks 36th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass on deep throws.
Brissett has never been a superb downfield passer, but it has never been this bad. Perhaps with a little improvement from Jacoby, Wilson can start turning his air yards into edible receiving yards for your hungry fantasy squad. Arizona averaging nearly 70 offensive snaps per game over the past four weeks should help everyone in this miserable offense.
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Here are teams averaging the fewest total team air yards per game.
Minnesota Vikings
There's nothing doing with the Vikings offense. The whole operation stinks. Obviously they'd be much better with JJ McCarthyat the helm but the kid was far too annoying to keep around any longer. I get that.
Kyler "Mid" Murray and the Minnesota offense in Week 7 had 201 total air yards against the Colts (while operating 4.4 percent below their expected pass rate). It's only the third time this season they've cleared the 200 air yards mark. That's bleak.
This means even when Justin Jefferson dominates air yards — on Sunday he accounted for 31 percent of the Vikings' air yards — it doesn't amount to much. Elic Ayomanorand Mason Taylorhad more than Jefferson's 62 air yards on Sunday. Jordan Addison, who ranks 58th in air yards this season, is all but unplayable in 12-team leagues thanks to this hideous offensive environment.
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You're just hoping and praying for touchdowns if you're starting Minnesota pass catchers for now. Sorry to get religious.
New York Jets
It feels a little odd to write this as Omar Cooper, Jr.goes ballistic every week: The Jets offense is an air yards graveyard that probably can't support more than one pass catcher per week, if that.
Even as Geno Smithwent for 287 yards and three touchdowns against Miami in Week 7, the Jets offense produced a meager 205 total team air yards, the fifth fewest of the week. The Jets since Week 4 are averaging 200 total air yards per game; only the Bucs have a lower mark.
The whole thing destroys the case for Adonai Mitchellas a high-upside WR3/4 option. Mitchell, in his return to the lineup in Week 7, saw 18 air yards while running 51 percent of the team's routes. Mason Taylor, meanwhile, led the Jets with 73 air yards, a gaudy 43 percent share.
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Increased involvement from Cooper — who leads the team in air yards and has been targeted on 24 percent of his pass routes over the past two games — along with Taylor and Mitchell could make things awfully dicey for Garrett Wilsonover the next couple months. Wilson over the past couple weeks has seen 21 percent of the Jets' air yards and 15 percent of the team's targets. From Week 1-4, Wilson enjoyed a 29 percent target share and a 48 percent air yards share.
New York's offense operates at the NFL's fifth-slowest pace and only the Broncos, Dolphins, and Titans average fewer offensive plays per game. It is an undeniably ugly fantasy environment right now.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are trying that thing where you run your offense at a faster pace and produce more plays and dropbacks and yes, air yards. In Week 7 against the Browns the Titans produced 281 total air yards, the 11th most in the NFL. Headed into Week 7 they had averaged 225 team air yards per game.
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It's not a big change, but perhaps enough to make Carnell Tatemore reliable as a high-variance WR3. The aforementioned Ayomanor got more involved in Week 7, leading the Titans with 71 air yards and turning that opportunity into three receptions for 44 yards. It's a situation worth monitoring if the Titans stick with it. Only four teams have a higher offensive pace on the season.
Prayer Yards Warriors (Players who could see positive regression)
AJ Brown (NE)
Prayer yards rate: 74 percent
Brown's listed prayer yards rate does not include his Week 1 outing, which was cut short by one of the highest ankle sprains in recorded medical history. As AJB drafters know all too well, Brown has run colder than cold (ice cold) over the past couple weeks. Someone should lend him some sugar; he is your neighbor.
Anyway, Brown has accounted for 46 percent of New England's air yards over the past two games (and 23.5 percent of the team's targets). It's a gaudy number that should mean AJB can produce actual yards and maybe even touchdowns if/when he stops playing terribly. His role in the Patriots offense — which ranks seventh in pass rate over expected since Week 4 — means he needs to remain in all lineups ahead of the team's Week 8 matchup against the regularly-wrecked Miami secondary.
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A mere 11 receivers have a higher expected fantasy points per game than AJB since Week 6. His actual points per game? Forty-second among wideouts.
Jalen Coker (CAR)
Prayer yards rate: 76 percent
Coker has run pretty dang cold over the Panthers' past four games. His prayer yards rate over that span is the fifth-highest among wideouts who have seen at least ten targets. Like I said: Cold.
Probably you weren't going to bench Coker ahead of Carolina's Thursday night game against the Packers. But if you were tinkering with the idea of finding a Coker replacement, close your eyes and trust that the Regression Reaper will make a Week 8 visit to the Panthers WR1. Coker on the season ranks 18th among receivers in expected PPR points per game, just behind Zay Flowersand Parker Washington. He'll be OK.
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Bryce Lance (NO)
Prayer yards rate: 90 percent
Lance, who didn't do a whole lot in Week 7 after sneaking his way into the Regression Files, lands here once again because nine in ten air yards coming his way have gone incomplete. That's a hideous and likely-unsustainable rate that could correct itself. He remains a desperation flex option for those in 28-team leagues.
Harold Fannin, Jr. (CLE)
Prayer yards rate: 66 percent
Two-thirds of Fannin's air yards over the past four weeks have been for naught in a Cleveland offense that's usually on the pass-first side of things. Pat Freiermuthis the only tight end in the league with a season-long higher prayer yards rate than Fannin. Fannin's (positive) regression seems to have begun in Week 7 against the Titans when he caught six of nine targets for 91 yards.
That good kind of regression could continue in Week 8 against a Steelers defense giving up nearly 300 total team air yards per game this year.
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Bullseye Enjoyers (Players who could see negative regression)
Jaylin Noel (HOU)
Bullseye rate: 100 percent
Noel lands here again because, well, all 180 of his air yards over the past five weeks have been completed. Accordingly, Noel is well above his expected fantasy points per game over that stretch.
The return of Tank Delland the (playing time) emergence of Marvin Harrison, Jr.led to a 52 percent route participation rate for Noel in Week 7. The negative regression will continue until morale improves.
Caleb Douglas (MIA)
Bullseye rate: 60 percent
It's not that Douglas' bullseye rate is particularly egregious. It's what he's done after the catch that is — per the Regression Reaper — totally unsustainable. Last week's box score explosion against the Jets saw Douglas score 21 fantasy points. His expected fantasy output: 8.3 points, or 54th among wideouts on the week.
Miami's offense has (smartly) gone ultra-turbo-giga run heavy over the team's past couple games. Against the Jets they were nearly 10 percent below their expected pass rate. That leaves Douglas and the rest of the Dolphins wideouts unlikely to see the sort of target and air yards volume to be reliable in any fantasy format. The Dolphins since Week 5 rank 25th in total team air yards per game.
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Omar Cooper, Jr. (NYJ)
Bullseye rate: 95 percent
Pointing out potential negative regression for fun players like Cooper is part of the job, I suppose. I'm a Cooper fan and take no pleasure in saying there's (almost) no way he can keep doing what he's doing in the Jets offense.
A mere eight of Cooper's 160 air yards over the past two games have gone unconverted. He's averaging about seven fantasy points per game over expected. The good news is that Cooper's expected fantasy points since Week 6 ranks among the top-20 receivers. Even a little bad regression should keep Cooper in 12-team league starting lineups. Fun is still legal for now.
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Good Air Yards Matchups: Week 8
Browns at Steelers
CLE air yards allowed per game: 353 (4th)
CLE neutral pass rate against: 56 percent (12th)
CLE pass rate over expected against: -0.1 percent (19th)
There aren't a whole lot of options for those of us looking for air yards-rich environments in Week 8. This Browns-Steelers matchup qualifies as one because Cleveland allows the fourth most total air yards per game and the Steelers allow the 14th most. We work with what we have.
The Steelers have seen the league's fifth highest pass rate over expected against them this year, and only Detroit opponents have a higher neutral pass rate than Steelers opponents. It should make a lot of pass catchers interesting here, including Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, the aforementioned Fannin, DK Metcalf, the Steelers tight ends, and of course, Germie Bernard.
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Falcons vs. Bucs
ATL air yards allowed per game: 356 (3rd)
ATL neutral pass rate against: 58 percent (7th)
ATL pass rate over expected against: +6 percent (3rd)
I think we can safely throw out the Bucs' Week 7 massacre of the Panthers in which Tampa was 30 percent below its expected pass rate and totaled a miserable 67 team air yards. This week they face off against an extreme pass funnel in the Falcons, a defense that has seen six of their seven opponents exceed their expected pass rate.
Maybe, just maybe, that can put Chris Godwinand Tampa pass catchers in play as viable 12-team options this week. The Bucs defense, meanwhile, profiles as a top-10 pass funnel on the season. That could fuel volume for Drake Londonand Kyle Pittshere.
