As Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence battles through his worst season yet in the NFL, a popular NFL expert offered up an interesting opinion: Lawrence is the next-gen version of Jameis Winston .
When Jacksonville selected Lawrence as the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, there was hope that the franchise may have found a new franchise QB that could lead them for the next decade. Although he struggled in his first season and threw 17 interceptions, there were signs of his potential.
When he went on to earn Pro Bowl honors in 2022 during head coach Doug Pederson's first year overseeing the team, it looked like the young QB was evolving into the player many thought he could be coming out of Clemson . However, while he did not get worse in his sophomore campaign, he did not take another development step forward in year three.
Jaguars fans would long for the Lawrence of 2023 because he has notably regressed over the last two seasons. His completion percentage, passer rating, and QB rating have gone down to where he is posting the worst numbers of his career in those categories this year. His touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14 to 11 is also alarming in year five. Especially after the team hired another offense-friendly coach in Liam Coen to replace Pederson before the season.
The player Lawrence has now become reminded popular sports podcaster Bill Simmons of another highly touted by frustratingly average QB: 11-year NFL veteran Jameis Winston .
Winston and Lawrence have a lot in common. Oddly enough, they were both the top overall pick in the year they entered the NFL Draft. Winston was the top pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2015. He also had impressive success immediately. He earned All-Rookie team and Pro Bowl honors in his debut season. Unfortunately, that would be a peak period in his career.
The former Florida State star has gone from a burgeoning franchise QB to the NFL's most unpredictable gunslinger. While he can throw you into games, he can just as easily, and often does, throw his teams out of games. It is why he has played for four different teams in his career. Interestingly, his stats and those of Trevor Lawrence are pretty similar.
During a new edition of his The Ringer podcast , Simmons noted the Jaguars QB has a career record of 29-42. Winston is 36-52. Lawrence at least has a win in the playoffs, while Winston has never even started in the postseason. The Jacksonville signal caller has 83 TDs and 54 interceptions to Winston's 154 to 112.
"Jameis' career is longer, and he's more entertaining, but they are basically the same QB," Simmons said. "And I didn't realize that until I was watching both of them [on Sunday]. And I was like, 'What's the difference between these two guys?' Something really good might happen, or something really terrible might happen."
Jags fans should definitely be concerned about the QB they are resting their season hopes on in 2025 and beyond.
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