Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 16

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Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 16

Enzo Flojo, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Dec 19, 2025 ·

4 min read

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The Denver Broncos are battling for a first-round bye in the postseason. They will go searching for a crucial victory when playing host to the Jacksonville Jaguars at Mile High on Sunday afternoon. Denver enters the matchup fresh off a 34–26 win over the Packers at home. That's where Bo Nix delivered a season-best performance. He completed 23 of 34 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns. That victory extended the Broncos' home winning streak to 12 games. It's the franchise's longest such run this millennium.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, arrives riding serious momentum after a 48–20 demolition of the Jets . It was their highest-scoring outing since Week 14 of the 2015 season. Trevor Lawrence was electric. He threw for 330 yards and a career-high five touchdowns, while adding another score on the ground. Winners of five straight, the Jaguars now sit third in the AFC. These teams last met in Week 8 of the 2022 season, when Denver edged Jacksonville 21–17.

Jaguars vs. Broncos betting odds

Jaguars: +3, -110
Broncos: -3, -110
Over: 45.5, -110
Under: 45.5, -110

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings )

Jaguars vs. Broncos key injuries for Week 16

Jaguars: DE Josh Hines-Allen (Illness), DE Danny Striggow (Ankle), RB Bhayshul Tuten (Finger), OL Ezra Cleveland (Shoulder), LB Jalen McLeod (Ankle)

Broncos: LB Karene Reid (Hamstring), LB Justin Strnad (Ankle), S Brandon Jones (Pectoral), OL Ben Powers (Biceps), LB Drew Sanders (Foot)

Jaguars vs. Broncos betting trends

The Jaguars and Broncos have played each other only six times from 2010 onwards. The Broncos have enjoyed a head-to-head matchup edge, 4-2, over those games. Denver has booked wins in their last two meetings. One was a 23-13 win from 2021, and the latest was 21-17 from Week 8 of 2022. The Broncos have also averaged +5.1 more points per game in all those matchups. Entering Week 16, the Broncos have won 11 straight games, while the Jaguars are also on a hot streak, having won five in a row.

Several betting trends do indicate that this will be a pretty close game:

The Broncos have won each of their last 12 home games.
Brian Thomas has recorded 47+ receiving yards in 18 of his 19 previous appearances against AFC opponents.
Each of the Broncos' last six games in December have gone OVER the total points line.
The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games.

2025 records:

Jacksonville, 10-4 straight up, 9-5 ATS; Denver, 12-2 straight up, 6-8 ATS

Over/UnderJacksonville 8-6; Denver, 6-8

Keys to Jaguars vs. Broncos matchup

© Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jaguars:

Sustain offensive efficiency:
Lawrence is playing the best football of his career . Jacksonville's offense ranks among the league leaders in EPA per play. Maintaining that efficiency will be vital in Denver's high-altitude environment. That's where fatigue can quietly influence execution.

Contain the Broncos' run game:Denver's offense leans heavily on its running backs to control tempo. Jacksonville's stout run defense must limit early-down success. They need to force Denver into more predictable passing situations.

Generate defensive pressure:The Jaguars' defense has led the NFL in EPA per play allowed over the past five weeks. Creating pressure, disrupting timing, and forcing turnovers will be essential. They need to slow down a Broncos offense that thrives on rhythm.

Broncos:

Dictate the pace with defense:Denver's defense remains the backbone of its success. Tight coverage and a relentless pass rush must disrupt Lawrence's comfort. They need to prevent explosive plays downfield.

Protect Bo Nix :
Jacksonville's pass rush is arriving hot. As such, Denver's offensive line must hold firm. Giving Bo Nix time allows the Broncos to stay balanced and avoid relying solely on late-game heroics.

Continue clutch performances:Denver's defining trait during its streak has been composure. With nine of their last 11 wins decided by one possession, the Broncos have consistently executed in late-game moments. That's a skill that could again prove decisive.

Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction and pick

This matchup pits two of the AFC's hottest teams against each other. Of course, the margins are razor-thin. Jacksonville's offense is explosive enough to challenge Denver's defense. That said, Mile High has been a fortress. The Broncos' ability to close tight games remains unmatched. Expect a competitive, physical contest with momentum swings throughout.

Final score prediction: Broncos 27, Jaguars 23
Spread: Broncos -3
Over/Under: Under 45.5

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