Since he was called up in 2023, Jake Irvin has been an ever-present in the Nats rotation. He has been a durable arm, tallying 595.1 innings since he got called up. In the first half of the 2024 season, Irvin flashed middle of the rotation potential. However, he has been on a downward slide since then.
Irvin has posted an ERA well over 5 in each of the past two seasons. As the Nats look to take the next step, Irvin may not be a fit in the rotation anymore. While Irvin is durable and seems like a great guy off the field, the results just have not been there. He has been plagued by home run problems and has been unable to capture that early 2024 magic.
Jake Irvin will be arbitration eligible this offseason entering his age 30 season. That means Paul Toboni will have to make a decision about whether to keep Irvin around. Honestly, there are cases for both sides, which I will break down.
According to the MLB Trade Rumors projections, bringing back Irvin will not exactly break the bank. He is expected to make around $3.4 million next season if the Nats tender him a contract. That is not nothing, but it is not some huge number either.
While the last two years have not been pretty, I think there is a path for Irvin to be worth this much and maybe even a bit more. Irvin posted a 5.48 ERA this season, but he did generate more swing and miss. He struck out 110 batters in 106.2 innings, or 9.28 K/9. That is by far the best mark of his career. For context, he only struck out 6.20 per 9 in 2025.
Irvin had plenty of issues in 2026, but his curveball was extremely effective. Batters hit just .161 against the pitch with a 34% whiff rate. It is an unusual curveball that moves a lot like a sweeper. Irvin's curve has always been solid, but it was better than ever in 2026.
His 4-seam fastball also generated pretty good results. Batters hit just .242 with a 23.6% whiff rate against that offering. That is not elite, but it is a rock solid mark, especially for a 93 MPH fastball. Those two pitches worked well for Irvin, the issue is that everything else was very bad.
Hitters absolutely teed off on Irvin sinker, with a .338 average and .676 slugging percentage. He also struggled to find another secondary pitch to complement the curveball. His cutter and sweeper were not very good, while his changeup flashed, but he only threw it 7.8% of the time.
Another aspect of Irvin's game that is problematic is his velocity fluctuations. He often started games throwing in the 94-96 MPH range pretty consistently. However, by the time the third inning rolled around, he would be sitting between 90-93.
A lot of these characteristics lead me to believe Irvin would be better off in a bullpen role. It would allow him to throw harder and shrink his arsenal. I think Irvin could be a solid middle reliever who leans heavily on his 4-seamer and curveball.
However, is a guy who could be a decent middle reliever worth $3.4 million? I am not so sure about that. With how the past couple of years have gone, I am not very high on Irvin as a starter. He will post every 5th day, but on a team that has real aspirations, I don't think he will be effective enough.
This will be an intriguing decision for the Nats early this offseason. I actually think Irvin has some talent, but it is unlikely to work as a starter. The Nats also have a plethora of multi-inning relief options. In my opinion, Irvin is surplus to requirements at this point, but it would not be unreasonable to tender him a contract.
