The problem with Jim Bowden's Casey Mize prediction is sitting right there in the explanation. Health.
According to Bowden's latest free-agent rankings for The Athletic, he projects a three-year, $54 million contract for Mize and identifies Detroit as his best team fit. His assessment also acknowledges the injuries and the ugly finish in San Diego. That is a lot of uncertainty to attach to three guaranteed seasons.
Mize gave Detroit legitimate reasons to believe in him this year. He posted a 2.70 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in 86⅔ innings with the Tigers, according to the Bowden passage reproduced by Detroit Sports Nation. Those numbers deserve to be part of the discussion. Pretending he offered nothing would make this argument easy to dismiss.
But the same account puts his Padres ERA at 7.46 across 10 starts. Bowden notes that injuries may have affected his performance and says teams need to examine his medical history carefully.
Fair enough. Now explain why Detroit should guarantee $54 million before that uncertainty has been resolved.
Mize's ankle injury was particularly unfortunate: MLB.com reported that he sprained it after slipping on the dugout steps. Nobody should treat a freak accident as a character flaw or proof that a pitcher cannot compete.
But explaining poor results does not erase the risk attached to the next contract.
A team considering a multiyear investment has to evaluate the pitcher it can reasonably expect to get. The healthy version matters. So does how often that version will be available.
That is where this projection loses me. The case for the contract depends on the good stretch becoming the standard, while the reasons it did not last are treated as problems that can be solved by the next physical.
A clean examination would matter. It would not guarantee three healthy seasons.
There is nothing inherently foolish about exploring a reunion. Detroit can examine its own experience with Mize, compare it with the available alternatives and decide what level of risk it can tolerate but the Tigers have the history to suggest, why go back to the well?
Three years at $18 million annually might turn out well. It might also leave Detroit paying for a level of availability it never receives. Before signing off on that, I want a stronger argument about workload, health and alternatives than the possibility that Mize can rediscover his best stretch.I just don't see Scott Harris going back to a risk he is already too familiar with.
Bowden is offering a prediction, not reporting an agreement or a Tigers offer. That distinction matters. Nobody needs to invent a negotiation to criticize the idea. The idea itself provides enough material.
Detroit should investigate Mize if the price and medical evaluation justify it. But calling the Tigers his best fit at three years and $54 million asks the organization to absorb a substantial risk without making a convincing case for why it should. Also back in 2024, Jim clearly forgot about the $25k difference in arbitration between the two parties
The Tigers need innings they can count on. This prediction gives them another expensive "if."
